Group 1 - Morgan Stanley has raised Alibaba Health's (00241) 2026 revenue and adjusted EPS forecasts by 3% and 9% respectively, reflecting better-than-expected performance in the first half of the fiscal year and high synergy effects from Alibaba's instant retail [1] - The 2027 revenue forecast has also been increased by 3%, while the adjusted EPS remains largely unchanged; the target price for December 2026 is maintained at HKD 6.5 with a "Neutral" rating based on a 2.5x enterprise value/revenue multiple for the fiscal year 2026 [1] - The firm believes that while there is uncertainty regarding the incremental contribution and sustainability of instant retail, the first factor will continue to drive platform sales growth in the foreseeable future [1] Group 2 - Due to the gradual removal of medical device subsidy policies in the second half of this year, Morgan Stanley expects some fluctuations in medical device sales in the second half of the 2026 fiscal year [2] - The firm projects a 15% year-on-year revenue growth for the entire 2026 fiscal year, with a 14% growth in the second half, which is a slowdown compared to the 17% strong revenue growth achieved in the first half, primarily driven by strong momentum in original prescription drugs and the comprehensive effects of Alibaba's instant retail [2]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Neutral" rating on Alibaba Health (00241) following the release of its mid-year results for the fiscal year ending September 2026, citing structural benefits in the industry such as the shift of original prescription drugs from hospital channels and accelerated online drug penetration [1] Financial Performance - Goldman Sachs slightly adjusted its revenue forecast for Alibaba Health for the fiscal years 2026 to 2028, projecting a growth of 2% to 4% [1] - The adjusted net profit forecast was also increased by 2% to 4% [1] Target Price Adjustment - Based on the forecast for its pharmacy and medical services business, Goldman Sachs raised the target price from HKD 4.7 to HKD 5.2, while maintaining a "Neutral" rating [1] Comparison with Competitors - There is a noted disparity in revenue growth between Alibaba Health and JD Health (06618), with Alibaba Health lagging in establishing a robust first-party platform sales business model, particularly in user awareness and drug supply chain [1] - Despite this, Goldman Sachs believes there is still upside potential in Alibaba Health's earnings guidance for the fiscal year ending March 2026, driven by strong growth in its first-party platform sales and strict operational cost control [1]

智通财经APP获悉，高盛发布研报称，阿里健康(00241)公布9月底止2026财年中期业绩后，维持其"中 性"评级，主要原因包括公司正受惠于产业结构性的利好因素，如原研处方药从医院渠道流出及线上药 品渗透率的加速增长。高盛将阿里健康2026至2028财年收入预测微调至增长2%至4%;并相应上调调整后 净利润预测2%至4%。基于对其药房、医疗服务业务预测的2027年28倍市盈率，将目标价从4.7港元升至 5.2港元，维持"中性"评级。 然而，高盛观察到两大线上医药平台阿里健康及京东健康(06618)在收入增长上存在差异，当中包括第 一方平台销售(1P)已成为主要收入和利润驱动因素下，相较于同行，阿里健康在建立完善的第一方平台 销售商业模式方面仍存在差距，尤其在用户认知度与药品供应链方面。虽然如此，高盛认为阿里健康目 前明年3月底止2026财年的业绩指引仍有上行空间，主要得益于其第一方平台销售业务强劲的增长带 动，尤其在其药品销售及严格的营运费用控制推动下。 ...