铁路建设业

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固投增速放缓,新藏铁路提升基建预期 | 投研报告
Zhong Guo Neng Yuan Wang· 2025-08-20 07:33
Core Viewpoint - The construction industry is experiencing a decline in prosperity, with a slowdown in fixed asset investment growth [2] Group 1: Construction Industry Indicators - In July, the construction industry Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.6, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points from the previous month [2][1] - The construction business activity index was also 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points from last month [2][1] - The new orders index for the construction industry was 42.7%, reflecting a decline of 2.2 percentage points from the previous month [2][1] - The input price index for the construction industry rose to 54.5%, an increase of 6.2 percentage points from last month [2][1] - The sales price index for the construction industry was 49.2%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month [2][1] - The employment index in the construction industry was 40.9%, an increase of 1.0 percentage point from last month [2][1] - The business activity expectation index was 51.6%, down 2.3 percentage points from the previous month [2][1] Group 2: Fixed Asset Investment - From January to July, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 288,229 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points compared to January to June [2] - The broad infrastructure investment growth rate was 6.67%, down 2.31 percentage points from the previous value, while the narrow infrastructure investment growth rate was 2.89%, down 1.57 percentage points [3] - In the first seven months, investment in electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply increased by 21.5%, while investment in transportation, warehousing, and postal services grew by 3.9% [3] Group 3: Real Estate Sector - From January to July, national real estate development investment was 53,580 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.0%, with the decline expanding by 0.8 percentage points compared to January to June [4] - The sales area of commercial housing was 51,560 million square meters, down 4% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.5 percentage points [4] - The area of new housing starts was 35,206 million square meters, down 19.4% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points [4] - The area of completed housing was 25,034 million square meters, down 16.5% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 1.7 percentage points [4] Group 4: Infrastructure Projects - The establishment of the New Tibet Railway Company with a registered capital of 95 billion yuan is expected to boost infrastructure investment [5] - The total investment for the New Tibet Railway is estimated at approximately 175.4 billion yuan per year over a 10-year construction period [5] - The approval of the Yaxia Hydropower Project, with an investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to further enhance long-term infrastructure investment expectations [5] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Recommendations include companies involved in stable growth, construction, and regional development such as China Power Construction, China Energy Construction, and Shanghai Construction [5] - Focus on companies benefiting from infrastructure investment and those with high dividends, including Anhui Construction, China National Materials, and China Railway Construction [5] - Attention is also drawn to growth sectors such as low-altitude economy and welding robots, with suggestions to monitor design and engineering firms [5]