洞见 （ DJ00123987 ） —— 不一样的观点，不一样的故事， 3000 万人订阅的微信大号。点击标题下 蓝字 " 洞见 " 关注，我们将为您提供有价值、有意思的延伸阅读。 作者：洞见pumpkin 沿着旧地图，找不到新大陆。 ♬ 点上方播放按钮可收听洞见主播一凡 朗读音频 你有没有过这样的体验？ 在某一时刻，发现自己曾经深信不疑的观念或认知被彻底颠覆，那种感觉如同三观崩塌，整个 世界都变得陌生而新鲜。 老话说： 不破不立，大破大立。 这三观崩塌和重塑的交替，往往也是一个人成长的契机。 01 刷新世界观 看过两个"毁三观"的小故事。 有个好事的心理学家找到几个生活在亚马逊密林中的原始人，将他们带到美国大草原上飙车。 亚马逊人目瞪口呆，直呼世界观崩塌了。 观众们看到崩溃的亚马逊人，也深感不解。 原来，一直生活在密林之中，亚马逊人没有远距离视物的经验，看到物体的大小不会由于距离 产生那么大的变化。 看到甲虫般大小的东西瞬间变成一个庞然大物，这超出了他们的理解范畴。 而观众无法理解亚马逊人的崩溃，是因为他们理所当然地以为这是再正常不过的现象。 有一个满腹经纶的书生路过麦田，发现有头没有犄角的牛。 便问旁边的 ...

Group 1 - A significant number of funds have recently implemented large purchase restrictions ahead of the holiday, with over 100 funds initiating such measures in the last ten days [1][3] - The restrictions are primarily aimed at protecting existing investors' interests and maintaining fund stability, as large inflows could dilute returns during the holiday period when bond interest continues to accrue [2][3] - Specific funds, such as Guotai Junan and Changjiang Asset Management, have set limits on large purchases, with some capping institutional investments at 100,000 yuan and others at 1 million yuan, with a planned resumption of operations on October 9 [2][3] Group 2 - The A-share market has shown a relatively calm performance compared to the previous year, with only a 1.06% increase in the four trading days leading up to September 29, contrasting sharply with a 21% rise during the same period last year [1][3] - Analysts suggest that the current market is in a consolidation phase, with a focus on core sectors that show resilience and strong consensus among investors [1][5] - The upcoming fourth quarter is expected to present investment opportunities, with key areas of focus including limited consumer recovery, investment pressures, and persistent low inflation [5][6] Group 3 - Historical data indicates that bond funds have a high probability of positive returns in the five trading days following the holiday, with short-term bond fund indices showing a 100% probability of positive returns from 2016 to 2024 [4] - The current market environment is characterized by a "slow bull" trend, with ongoing adjustments seen as a healthy consolidation that supports long-term market sustainability [6][7] - The technology sector is identified as a core focus for future investment, with opportunities in consumer electronics, semiconductor equipment, and various power equipment sectors expected to benefit from manufacturing upgrades [7][8]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report analyzes the fund flow of exchange-traded index funds from September 15 to September 19, 2025, highlighting significant trends in various categories [1][2]. - The overall fund flow indicates a mixed performance across different index categories, with notable outflows in major indices like the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 [6][7]. Group 2: Fund Flow by Category - The Shanghai 50 index had a fund size of 159.46 billion yuan, with a weekly decline of 1.71% and a net outflow of 5.98 billion yuan [6]. - The CSI 300 index, with a fund size of 983.45 billion yuan, experienced a slight decline of 0.39% and a significant net outflow of 33.92 billion yuan [6]. - The ChiNext index showed a positive trend with a weekly increase of 2.17% and a net inflow of 5.76 billion yuan, indicating investor interest in growth sectors [6]. - In the technology sector, the large technology category saw a fund size of 216.69 billion yuan, with a weekly increase of 2.20% and a substantial net inflow of 58.01 billion yuan [7]. - The large financial category faced a decline of 3.20% with a net inflow of 140.61 billion yuan, suggesting a shift in investor sentiment [7]. Group 3: Sector Performance - The healthcare sector had a fund size of 100.16 billion yuan, with a weekly decline of 2.11% and a modest net inflow of 5.94 billion yuan, reflecting cautious investor behavior [7]. - The manufacturing sector reported a fund size of 72.82 billion yuan, with a weekly increase of 2.19% and a net inflow of 64.79 billion yuan, indicating resilience in this area [7]. - The consumer sector showed a slight decline of 0.24% with a net inflow of 32.55 billion yuan, suggesting mixed investor confidence [7]. Group 4: International Indices - The Nasdaq 100 index had a fund size of 78.42 billion yuan, with a weekly increase of 1.84% and a net outflow of 0.67 billion yuan, indicating fluctuating investor interest [11]. - The S&P 500 index reported a fund size of 20.84 billion yuan, with a slight increase of 0.50% and a net inflow of 0.77 billion yuan, reflecting stable performance [11]. - The Hang Seng index had a fund size of 19.17 billion yuan, with a weekly increase of 0.40% and a net outflow of 3.72 billion yuan, suggesting challenges in the Hong Kong market [11].

Core Viewpoint - Lei Jun's annual speech for 2023 will take place on September 25, focusing on the theme of "Change," discussing the Xiaomi玄戒 chip and Xiaomi's automotive developments [2] Group 1: Annual Speech Overview - Lei Jun's annual speeches have been a tradition since 2020, typically held in the summer, with this year's event being delayed by two months [2] - The speeches serve to share entrepreneurial insights and promote new products, generating significant anticipation among fans [2] Group 2: Previous Themes and Key Quotes - 2020's theme was "Unwavering," with notable quotes emphasizing persistence in finding talent and the importance of earning trust [3][4] - 2021's theme was "My Dream, My Choice," highlighting the value of making choices and the strength of teamwork [4] - 2022's theme was "Always Believe That Good Things Are Coming," focusing on the value of past experiences and failures [5] - 2023's theme was "Growth," stressing the importance of seeking knowledge and collaboration for success [6] - 2024's theme is "Courage," with impactful quotes encouraging resilience and the pursuit of victory despite challenges [6][8]

【编者按】 2025年是古龙逝世四十周年。自2025年5月起至12月，中国武侠文学学会联合复旦大学、华东师范大学、上海大学、上海师范大学、苏州大学及上 海社会科学院等高校与科研机构，共同发起了"古龙文化研究进校园"大型学术活动。9月21日，是古龙逝世四十周年纪念日。我们特刊此文以示纪 念。本文为"古龙文化研究进校园"系列活动中，中国电影艺术研究中心研究员陈墨先生于上海大学的讲座发言稿，经作者授权首发于智通财经。 讲座由上海大学文学院教授石娟主持。 古龙（1938年6月7日-1985年9月21日） 石娟：1985年，48瓶XO陪伴古龙先生离开了红尘。时逢古龙先生逝世40周年，中国武侠文学学会策划筹备了"古龙文化研究进校园"系列活动，这 是本系列活动的第二场。 在中国大陆，金庸对三位评论家"深为拜嘉"，第一位是冯其庸先生，第二位是严家炎先生，第三位就是陈墨先生。陈先生曾著文论金庸的八种身 份，如杨华老师在复旦大学所说，陈墨先生亦有多重身份：他的主业是电影史和口述史，而最为大家所熟知的是他的武侠小说研究。陈先生是我 多年一直敬重的学者，今天能够请到他到上海大学来为大家以文字解刀锋，何其有幸。话不多说，请诸位暂忘窗外 ...

1. Report Information - Report Title: Weekly Report on Capital Flows of Exchange-Traded Index Funds - Data Date: September 8 - 12, 2025 - Research Institution: Great Wall Securities Industrial Finance Research Institute - Analyst: Jin Ling - Report Date: September 17, 2025 [1] 2. Core View - The report presents the capital flow, fund scale, and weekly price change data of various exchange-traded index funds from September 8 - 12, 2025, covering comprehensive, industry theme, style strategy, enterprise nature, regional, QDII, bond, commodity, and index-enhanced funds. 3. Summary by Category Comprehensive Index Funds - **Fund Performance**: The Shanghai Composite 50 had a fund scale of 15.9456 billion yuan, a weekly increase of 0.99%, and a net weekly capital outflow of 394 million yuan; the CSI 300 had a scale of 98.3449 billion yuan, a rise of 1.51%, and an outflow of 4.095 billion yuan; the CSI 500 had a scale of 14.012 billion yuan, a 3.41% increase, and an inflow of 1.174 billion yuan [6]. Industry Theme Index Funds - **Sector Performance**: The large technology sector had a fund scale of 21.6688 billion yuan, a 5.13% increase, and an outflow of 6.616 billion yuan; the large finance sector had a scale of 12.8483 billion yuan, a 0.92% rise, and an inflow of 11.468 billion yuan; the large health sector had a scale of 10.0161 billion yuan, a 0.50% decline, and an inflow of 6.432 billion yuan [7]. Style Strategy Index Funds - **Style Performance**: The dividend style had a fund scale of 5.9877 billion yuan, a 1.01% increase, and an inflow of 633 million yuan; the growth style had a scale of 730.6 million yuan, a 3.02% increase, and an outflow of 252 million yuan; the value style had a scale of 330.8 million yuan, a 1.11% increase, and an outflow of 102 million yuan [9]. QDII Index Funds - **Overseas Market Performance**: The Nasdaq 100 had a fund scale of 7.8421 billion yuan, a 0.73% increase, and an outflow of 197 million yuan; the S&P 500 had a scale of 2.0837 billion yuan, a 0.69% increase, and an outflow of 38 million yuan; the German DAX had a scale of 975 million yuan, a 0.43% decline, and an inflow of 101 million yuan [11]. Bond Index Funds - **Bond Type Performance**: The 30-year bond had a fund scale of 896.9 million yuan, a 1.18% decline, and an inflow of 149 million yuan; the 10-year bond had a scale of 409 million yuan, a 0.20% decline, and no net inflow; the 5 - 10-year bond had a scale of 3.8952 billion yuan, a 0.26% decline, and an outflow of 302 million yuan [12]. Commodity Index Funds - **Commodity Performance**: Gold had a fund scale of 7.0887 billion yuan, a 2.33% increase, and an inflow of 2.095 billion yuan; soybean meal had a scale of 419.3 million yuan, a 0.75% increase, and an inflow of 12 million yuan; non-ferrous metals had a scale of 74.5 million yuan, a 1.40% increase, and an inflow of 7.7 million yuan [12]. Index-Enhanced Funds - **Index Enhancement Performance**: The Shanghai Composite 50 index-enhanced fund had a scale of 76 million yuan, a 0.99% increase, and no net inflow; the CSI 300 had a scale of 320.9 million yuan, a 1.30% increase, and an outflow of 108 million yuan; the CSI 500 had a scale of 197.8 million yuan, a 2.72% increase, and an inflow of 21.6 million yuan [12].

Industry Recognition & Career Trajectory - Shengyi Huang is recognized as a distinguished Chinese artist with achievements in film, television, and music [1] - She graduated from the Acting Department of Beijing Film Academy in 2005 [1] - Huang gained widespread recognition for her role in the 2004 blockbuster Kung Fu Hustle [1] - She is noted for her striking beauty, exceptional acting talent, and dedication to self-improvement [1] Personal Development & Entrepreneurship - The report highlights her transformation from an artist to a female boss, emphasizing continuous exploration and growth [1] - It frames personal growth as a form of craftsmanship, involving self-sculpting, refinement, and breakthrough in various roles [1]

- The style rotation model is constructed based on micro-level stock factors, including valuation, market capitalization, volatility, and momentum. It utilizes 80 base factors to generate 640 micro features, replacing absolute proportion division of style factors with common indices as style stock pools. Random forest is employed for rolling training to avoid overfitting, enabling feature selection and style recommendation. The framework integrates style timing, scoring, and investment implementation[3][8][9] - The performance of the style rotation model during the backtesting period (2017/01/01-2025/08/31) shows an annualized return of 17.08%, annualized volatility of 20.07%, IR of 0.85, monthly win rate of 55.77%, and maximum drawdown of -29.89%. When hedging against the market benchmark, the annualized return is 10.42%, annualized volatility is 13.03%, IR is 0.80, monthly win rate is 56.73%, and maximum drawdown is -9.57%[9][10] - The style rotation model's September 2025 timing direction focuses on growth, large-cap, momentum, and high-volatility factors[17] - The latest holdings of the style rotation model for September 2025 include ETFs such as Semiconductor Leaders ETF (159665.SZ), Big Data ETF (159739.SZ), Artificial Intelligence ETF (159819.SZ), Fintech ETF (159851.SZ), and 5G ETF (159994.SZ)[2][20]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **Chinese currency (RMB) exchange rate** and its implications for the **Chinese asset market**. The analysis includes macroeconomic factors, particularly the influence of the **US dollar index** and **Producer Price Index (PPI)** on the RMB's performance. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **RMB Exchange Rate Trends**: The RMB exchange rate exhibits both **trend and cyclical characteristics**. Long-term depreciation is influenced by the US dollar index, while short-term fluctuations align with it. The RMB's actual effective exchange rate is expected to strengthen if the PPI rebounds significantly, which is anticipated in Q2 2026 [1][3][7]. 2. **Impact of PPI on RMB**: A significant rebound in China's PPI is crucial for enhancing market interest in Chinese assets and providing a basis for the RMB's appreciation. The PPI is expected to turn positive in 2026, which will improve the competitive landscape for Chinese enterprises [7][9][10]. 3. **Potential for RMB Appreciation**: The RMB is projected to appreciate significantly against a basket of currencies in 2026, with a potential entry into the "6 era" (6.1 to 6.9 range) depending on the US dollar's performance and PPI trends [11][14][15]. 4. **Foreign Investment and RMB**: The RMB's exchange rate against the USD is a critical observation point, as foreign capital inflows are necessary for the revaluation of Chinese assets. The lack of foreign investment in recent years has hindered this process [2][19]. 5. **Market Style Shift**: The asset style in China is expected to shift from long-duration assets to short-duration assets, focusing more on profitability rather than valuation. Growth sectors such as technology, consumer demand, and cyclical assets are likely to perform well [16][18]. 6. **Federal Reserve's Role**: The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could catalyze RMB appreciation. The divergence in monetary policies between China and the US may alleviate the interest rate spread, supporting the RMB's strength [12][13][17]. 7. **Current Market Dynamics**: The A-share market has been buoyed by liquidity rather than earnings, with significant support from the central bank. The market is expected to continue its upward trajectory, driven by sectors aligned with the five-year planning cycle, particularly in technology and consumption [19][20][21]. Other Important but Overlooked Content 1. **Liquidity and Market Support**: The central bank's support through increased debt to financial companies has been crucial in stabilizing the market. However, the actual inflow of funds from residents into the stock market remains limited [20][24]. 2. **Investor Behavior**: Historical trends indicate that even in favorable conditions (low interest rates and high returns), significant capital inflows into the stock market have not materialized, suggesting a cautious investor sentiment [27][34]. 3. **Economic Indicators**: The relationship between savings rates and deposit growth is critical. A potential increase in the savings rate could signal a shift in risk appetite among investors, which may influence market dynamics [33][34]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, focusing on the implications of the RMB exchange rate and the broader economic context affecting Chinese assets.

Report Information - Report Title: Weekly Report on Capital Flows of Exchange-Traded Index Funds [1] - Data Date: August 18 - 22, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Jin Ling [1] - Report Date: August 28, 2025 [1] Core Findings Domestic Passive Equity Funds - Different index funds showed varying performance in terms of fund size, weekly returns, and net weekly capital inflows. For example, the Shanghai - Shenzhen 300 index fund had a size of 983.449 billion yuan, a weekly return of 4.27%, and a net weekly capital outflow of 34.74 billion yuan; while the ChiNext Index fund had a size of 126.448 billion yuan, a weekly return of 5.81%, and a net weekly capital inflow of 22.61 billion yuan [4]. Overseas Index Funds - International index funds also had diverse performance. The Nasdaq 100 index fund had a size of 78.421 billion yuan, a weekly return of -3.08%, and a net weekly capital inflow of 7.78 billion yuan; the S&P 500 index fund had a size of 20.837 billion yuan, a weekly return of -1.63%, and a net weekly capital outflow of 1.44 billion yuan [5]. Bond Funds - Bond funds had different performance based on factors such as maturity and credit rating. The 30 - year bond fund had a size of 8.969 billion yuan, a weekly return of -1.25%, and a net weekly capital inflow of 59.60 billion yuan; the short - term financing bond fund had a size of 29.341 billion yuan, a weekly return of 0.01%, and a net weekly capital outflow of 28.50 billion yuan [6]. Commodity Funds - Commodity funds, including gold, soybean meal, and others, also had distinct performance. The gold fund had a size of 70.887 billion yuan, a weekly return of -0.29%, and a net weekly capital outflow of 0.94 billion yuan; the energy and chemical fund had a size of 2.93 billion yuan, a weekly return of 0.76%, and a net weekly capital inflow of 0.88 billion yuan [6]. Index - Enhanced Funds - Index - enhanced funds based on different indices had different performance. The CSI 500 index - enhanced fund had a size of 1.978 billion yuan, a weekly return of 3.76%, and a net weekly capital inflow of 0.12 billion yuan; the ChiNext Index - enhanced fund had a size of 0.469 billion yuan, a weekly return of 5.46%, and a net weekly capital outflow of 0.04 billion yuan [6].