近期，我国在"反内卷"领域动作频频。从十大行业的稳增长方案，到治理价格无序竞争，一系列旨在治理恶性竞争、促进经济高质量发展的政策举措密集 落地。哪些行业或将率先受益？投资者又可以如何投资？ 十大行业"稳增长"方案密集出台 近期，工业和信息化部陆续发布了钢铁、有色、石化、化工、建材、机械、汽车、电力装备、轻工业、电子信息制造业十大行业的新一轮稳增长工作方 案。这些行业在工业经济中举足轻重，合计占规模以上工业的七成左右。 方案的一大亮点是为各行业设定了明确的量化增长目标，例如，石化化工和有色金属行业均提出，2025至2026年间实现增加值年均增长5%。分析称，由 于十大行业产业链长、带动作用大，相关政策的实施将对稳定工业经济大盘发挥重要作用。 （资料参考：第一财经《新一轮十大行业稳增长方案发布， 有哪些新亮点？》,2025.10.08） 两部门发文治理价格无序竞争 10月9日，国家发展改革委、市场监管总局印发《关于治理价格无序竞争 维护良好市场价格秩序的公告》，明确在保护经营者自主定价权的前提下，按照 事前引导和事中事后监管相结合的思路，采取调研评估行业平均成本、加强价格监管、规范招标投标行为等措施，维护公平竞争 ...

对于四季度经济走势，多方预期保持乐观。张依群认为，今年四季度经济会继续保持平稳增长态势。政 府投资会保持强度不减、力度均衡、重点突出形成对经济增长的强大推力，"政府投资+结构优化+效益 提升+扩大增量"也成为助力稳经济和实现高质量发展的坚实底盘。中国银行研究院预计，四季度GDP 增长4.5%左右，全年增长5%左右。 除专项债券外，新型政策性金融工具也为项目建设注入"活水"。国家发展改革委政策研究室副主任、新 闻发言人李超在9月29日举行的新闻发布会上透露，国家发展改革委正会同有关方面积极推进新型政策 性金融工具相关工作，新型政策性金融工具规模共5000亿元，全部用于补充项目资本金。 （编辑：吴婧 审核：朱紫云 校对：翟军） 资金保障是重大项目落地的"生命线"。作为积极财政政策的重要抓手，今年新增专项债券发行节奏呈现 出明显的加快发行趋势。Wind数据显示，截至9月28日，今年以来各地发行新增专项债券规模约为 36613亿元，突破3.6万亿元关口。 "2025年更加积极的财政政策全方位助力投资和经济增长。"张依群对记者指出，今年地方债券发行和使 用进度均快于往年。地方债券在加力基建投资的过程中，进一步扩大了消费 ...

近期，我国在"反内卷"领域动作频频。从十大行业的稳增长方案，到治理价格无序竞争，一系列旨在治 理恶性竞争、促进经济高质量发展的政策举措密集落地。哪些行业或将率先受益？投资者又可以如何投 资？ 随着"反内卷"的深入推进，国家统计局近日发布的多项数据显示，相关行业的利润和价格均出现显著改 善，政策效果初步显现。 十大行业"稳增长"方案密集出台。 近期，工业和信息化部陆续发布了钢铁、有色、石化、化工、建材、机械、汽车、电力装备、轻工业、 电子信息制造业十大行业的新一轮稳增长工作方案。这些行业在工业经济中举足轻重，合计占规模以上 工业的七成左右。 方案的一大亮点是为各行业设定了明确的量化增长目标，例如，石化化工和有色金属行业均提出，2025 至2026年间实现增加值年均增长5%。分析称，由于十大行业产业链长、带动作用大，相关政策的实施 将对稳定工业经济大盘发挥重要作用。 （资料参考：第一财经《新一轮十大行业稳增长方案发布，有哪些新亮点？》，2025.10.08） 两部门发文治理价格无序竞争。 10月9日，国家发展改革委、市场监管总局印发《关于治理价格无序竞争 维护良好市场价格秩序的公 告》，明确在保护经营者自主定价权 ...

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 证券研究报告-晨会聚焦 发布日期：2025 年 10 月 13 日 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -9% -3% 3% 9% 15% 21% 27% 33% 2024.10 2025.02 2025.06 2025.10 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | 上证指数 | | 3,897.03 | -0.94 | | 深证成指 | | 13,355.42 | -2.70 | | 创业板指 | | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | | 沪深 | 300 | 4,616.83 | -1.97 | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | | 中证 | 100 | 4,465.29 | -2.56 | | 中证 | 5 ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观周报 宏观量化经济指数周报 20251012 逆周期调控的增量举措渐行渐近 2025 年 10 月 12 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ ELI 指数：截至 2025 年 10 月 12 日，本周 ELI 指数为-0.64%，较上周 回落 0.20 个百分点。预计 9 月新增贷款或季节性回升、关注财政和货 币"稳增长"增量政策。9 月份作为季末月，新增贷款或阶段性摆脱低 景气度，在季节性"大月"冲量季末时点的贷款规模，2022 年至 2024 年 9 月份贷款平均增长 2.12 万亿，2024 年 9 月在淡化规模情结的政策 导向下，仅新增 1.59 万亿，我们预计 2025 年 9 月新增贷款或小幅同比 多增，且由于政府债融资度过发行高峰，社融增速或继续小幅回落，具 体来看：（1）9 月票据利率稳中有升，从国股银票转贴现利率看，9 月 份不同期限票据贴现利率月度均值均小幅抬升，3 个月期票据利率均值 环比回升 28bps 至 1.28%，6 个月期票据利率均值环比回升 14bps 至 0.81%，9 月末一度出现票据利率高于同期限同业存单利率 ...

新能源及有色金属周报 | 2025-10-12 宏观方面：美国联邦政府10月1日停摆，导致全球经济前景的不确定性增加。此外，美联储10月降息预期降温，美 元指数升至106.5，人民币汇率承压贬值至7.35，美元走强将对价格起到一定压制作用。国庆长假期间，国内出台 文旅与基建新政，强化了新能源与高端制造对关键金属的中长期需求预期。叠加市场对四季度 "稳增长" 政策加码 的期待，基本金属板块风险偏好显著提升。 供应：镍矿方面，周内镍矿市场较为平静，镍矿价格维稳运行。菲律宾方面，苏里高等矿区即将步入雨季，矿山 陆续停止出货。铁厂利润受挫，对原料镍矿采购维持谨慎。印尼方面，镍矿市场供应持续宽松格局。但印尼政府 将采矿许可证期限从3年缩短至1年，短期引发市场对 2026 年及以后供应稳定性的担忧。尽管当前 2025 年配额仍 有效，但政策调整增加了中长期产能释放的变数。 消费：9月不锈钢和电池材料需求基本保持稳定，合金及特钢耗镍量有一定增加。但考虑到"金九银十"为传统消费 旺季，整体消费增长情况不及预期。 成本利润：一体化MHP生产电积镍成本116448元/吨，利润4.40%；一体化高冰镍生产电积镍成本124802元/ ...

两部门着手治理价格无序竞争，反内卷下钢价有望迎来秩序重构 【】【】 钢铁 [Table_Industry] [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 10 月 12 日 证券研究报告 行业研究——周报 [Tabl 行业周报 e_ReportType] [Table_StockAndRank] 钢铁 投资评级 看好 上次评级 看好 [Table_Author] 高 升 煤炭、钢铁行业首席分析师 执业编号：S1500524100002 邮 箱：gaosheng@cindasc.com 刘 波 煤炭、钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525070001 邮 箱：liubo1@cindasc.com 李 睿 煤炭、钢铁行业分析师 执业编号：S1500525040002 邮箱：lirui@cindasc.com 澳洲粉矿（62%Fe）上涨 6.0 元/吨，京唐港主焦煤库提价下跌 50.0 元/吨。需注意的是，据应急管理部获悉，11 月份，22 个中央安全生 产考核巡查组将陆续进驻 31 个省、自治区、直辖市和新疆生产建设 兵团开展年度考核巡查。受理范围主要包括：涉及安全生产相关的重 大问题隐患、安全生产非法 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a significant 1.1 trillion yuan three-month reverse repurchase operation to maintain adequate liquidity in the banking system, signaling proactive measures to address potential liquidity shortages and stabilize market expectations [1][2][3] Group 1: Liquidity Management - The PBOC's operation resulted in a net liquidity injection of 300 billion yuan, countering the 800 billion yuan in reverse repos maturing in October [1] - The large-scale reverse repo operation is a strategic response to the tightening liquidity caused by substantial government bond issuances, with local bonds reaching a record issuance of 1.2843 trillion yuan in September [1][2] - The operation reflects a coordinated effort between monetary and fiscal policies to stabilize market expectations amid complex internal and external environments [1][3] Group 2: Structural Pressures - The introduction of new policy financial tools by the National Development and Reform Commission is expected to increase funding demand, necessitating significant loans from commercial banks, which could create structural liquidity pressures [2] - Seasonal factors, such as increased cash demand during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, along with higher fiscal deposits, contribute to short-term liquidity tightening [2] Group 3: Policy Framework - The choice of a buyout reverse repo over traditional tools offers advantages such as longer terms and no collateral requirements, providing stable medium-term funding support [3] - The PBOC's recent actions are part of a broader trend of increasing liquidity support since the second half of 2025, indicating a commitment to maintaining ample liquidity in the banking system [3][4] - Future policies are expected to focus on fiscal strength and monetary easing, with a likelihood of continued use of reverse repos and medium-term lending facilities (MLF) to inject liquidity [4] Group 4: Coordination of Policies - The collaboration between fiscal and monetary policies is anticipated to enhance economic development, with government bonds serving as a core link in this coordination [4] - The PBOC is expected to continue using government bond transactions to manage liquidity, promoting healthy bond market development and improving monetary policy transmission efficiency [4]

中新社北京10月10日电 中国A股10日调整，主要股指悉数下跌。板块方面，水泥建材板块当天逆势上 涨，实现"四连涨"，表现亮眼。 申万宏源证券分析师任杰表示，相较于往年的工作方案，上述工作方案首次将"盈利水平有效提升"作为 行业主要目标。预计"反内卷"、提盈利、稳增长将是今明两年建材行业的工作重心。水泥等建材产能或 将明显收缩，盈利有望改善，利好相关上市公司。 就当天A股主要指数的表现而言，截至收盘，上证指数报3897点，跌幅为0.94%；深证成指报13355点， 跌幅为2.7%；创业板指报3113点，跌4.55%。沪深两市成交总额约25156亿元，较上一个交易日缩量约 1376亿元。 （文章来源：中国新闻网） 根据金融数据服务商东方财富的统计，水泥建材板块当天上涨2.76%，领涨A股所有板块。个股方面， 华新水泥、金隅集团当天股价收获涨停板(涨幅约10%)。 消息面上，中国工业和信息化部等部门近日印发的《建材行业稳增长工作方案(2025—2026年)》提出目 标：2025—2026年，建材行业恢复向好，盈利水平有效提升，绿色建材、先进无机非金属材料产业规模 持续增长，2026年绿色建材营业收入超过3000亿 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - For the nickel market, macro - impacts are limited, and nickel prices will return to the fundamental logic. With high inventories and a persistent supply - surplus situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. For the stainless - steel market, due to the lower - than - expected consumption in the peak season, high operating rates of stainless - steel enterprises, and the re - entry into the inventory - accumulation phase, stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 9, 2025, the main contract 2511 of Shanghai nickel opened at 121,300 yuan/ton and closed at 124,480 yuan/ton, a 2.39% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 130,864 (+3,674) lots, and the open interest was 86,038 (9,898) lots. Domestic new policies on culture, tourism, and infrastructure during the National Day holiday strengthened the medium - to - long - term demand expectations for key metals in new energy and high - end manufacturing. Overseas, after the Fed cut interest rates by 25BP in September, the market's bet on further easing at the late - October FOMC meeting increased, and the US dollar index slightly declined [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: After the holiday, the nickel - ore market was mainly in a wait - and - see mode with stable prices. In the Philippines, Surigao mines are about to enter the rainy season, and mine quotes remain firm. In Indonesia, the nickel - ore market supply is in a continuous loose pattern, and the 10 - month (first - phase) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to rise by 0.16 - 0.28 dollars. The new RKAB policy in Indonesia has increased the uncertainty of medium - to - long - term production capacity release [2]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 125,100 yuan/ton, up 1,700 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Driven by the collective rise of the non - ferrous sector and post - holiday restocking demand, the trading of refined nickel was fair, and the premiums of some brands increased slightly but remained stable overall [3]. - **Strategy** - The macro - impact on nickel prices is limited, and prices will return to the fundamental logic. With high inventories and a supply - surplus situation, nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. The recommended strategy is mainly range - trading for single - side operations, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or option operations [4]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On October 9, 2025, the main contract 2511 of stainless steel opened at 12,770 yuan/ton and closed at 12,860 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 88,195 (-39,957) lots, and the open interest was 60,514 (-4,171) lots. On the first trading day after the holiday, although LME nickel rose sharply during the holiday, the stainless - steel contract opened lower due to the decline of the black - metal sector. It then rose in the afternoon driven by the increase in Shanghai nickel but failed to break through the resistance near 12,900 yuan/ton [5]. - **Spot**: On the first day of resuming work after the holiday, the spot market remained sluggish as before the holiday, and downstream buyers remained on the sidelines. Affected by the rise in the Shanghai nickel futures price in the afternoon, the spot price of stainless steel increased slightly, but the downstream acceptance of high prices was still limited [5]. - **Strategy** - Due to the lower - than - expected consumption in the peak season, high operating rates of stainless - steel enterprises, and the re - entry into the inventory - accumulation phase, stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a weak oscillation. The recommended single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or option operations [5].