股指上涨波动加大，国债 空头或将持续 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 长江期货股份有限公司研究咨询部 研究员：彭 博 执业编号：F 投资咨询号：Z0021839 研究员：张志恒 执业编号：F0310 投资咨询号：Z0021210 - - 金融期货策略建议 重点数据跟踪 目 录 金融期货策略建议 股指策略建议 风险提示：资金流向及投资者情绪边际变化所带来的波动风险 资料来源：iFinD、华尔街见闻、长江期货 股指走势回顾：上周A股市场延续量价齐升态势，全周主要涨幅集中于周三与周五两个交易日。从风格表现看，上周 各主要指数普遍上涨，周度涨幅约 %左右，其中双创板块（创业板、科创板）及北证 领涨，科创 单周涨幅超 %。成交活跃度显著提升，两市日均成交额约 . 万亿元，较前一周环比增长 %。核心宽基指数周度表现方面： 沪深 上涨 . %，中证 上涨 . %，中证 上涨 . %。 核心观点：短期来看，市场做多动能仍保持强劲态势，流动性宽松环境有望延续，资金面预计维持充裕状态。随着市 场情绪持续升温，投资者入市积极性显著提升，增量资金持续流入将为市场运行提供重要支撑。此外，政策层面或将 ...

他明确表示：虽然通胀还没完全控制住，但美联储"可能在未来数月降息"。 8月22日，鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年会上的讲话，就像一颗"政策炸弹"，让整个金融市场都屏住了呼吸。 你有没有发现，最近新闻里关于美联储降息的消息越来越多了？ 如果经济真的出现疲软，降息只是"止痛药"，不能解决根本问题。从历史数据来看，降息初期股市通常会上涨，但中长期还是要看经济基本面。 所以，如果你有投资计划，得看清楚趋势，别被短期情绪带偏。 而且，美元作为全球主要储备货币，一旦降息，可能引发全球资本流动变化。 人民币汇率、大宗商品价格，甚至是你买进口商品的价格，都会受到影响。 这番话，听起来是不是有点矛盾？一边说通胀还在，一边又要降息？其实，这正是鲍威尔的"平衡术"。 他用的是 "风险平衡点"的说法，意思是现在经济下行的风险，已经超过了通胀上行的压力。这就像你开车时突然发现前方有减速带，虽然速度还没降下 来，但你已经松了油门。 美联储现在做的，就是松油门——降息，来给经济"缓冲"。 那这对我们普通人有什么影响呢？ 最直接的就是传导过来的美元汇率、黄金价格，美国人民的房贷、车贷利率可能会下降，贷款成本变低。 但别高兴太早。 你可能会问：通胀还没 ...

市商务委一级巡视员张国华表示，打造世界级商圈是上海的重要战略目标。当前，"上海之夏"国际 消费季正如火如荼地展开，上海将打造一批标杆性、示范性消费场景，更大力度吸引国内外流量。 据了解，自"上海之夏"国际消费季启动以来，上海各大商圈"政策+活动"双轮驱动，延续上半年的 发展势头，消费增长喜人。如，豫园商圈举办豫园·夏日奇幻夜，主打"国创内容+传统技艺"组合。其 间，豫园多家老字号与国创动画IP联名，整体关联销售额预计破4000万元。其中，老庙黄金《天官赐 福》联名金饰将动漫符号转化为金饰品中的文创元素，天猫预售的1000套联名产品秒罄，线下销售也十 分火爆。宁波汤团店、松月楼打造IP主题餐厅，联名套餐几乎日日售罄。 上海各大重点商圈的繁华，是促消费、稳增长的"压舱石"。以豫园商圈为例，上半年社零增长 41.6%，客流超2000万人次，年轻客群、海外客群占比显著上升，海外客群约占总体客群的20%。 市统计局的最新数据显示，今年1月至7月，上海实现社会消费品零售总额9551.79亿元，同比增长 2.5%。与商圈相关的零售类别，如服装、鞋帽、针纺织品类增长3.3%；化妆品类增长5.0%；金银珠宝 类增长1.5%；通 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Viewpoints - The State Council has issued a notice regarding the "Guiding Opinions on Regulating the Construction and Operation of Existing PPP Projects," which has received approval from the State Council, marking the arrival of regulatory guidance for existing PPP projects [2][6] - The report emphasizes the importance of ensuring the smooth progress of projects, with government debt clearly designated for the payment of existing projects [11] - The report highlights the need for mid-term focus on sustained growth, with fiscal efforts and major projects as two key drivers [11] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Regulatory Guidance**: The issuance of regulatory guidance for existing PPP projects aims to optimize credit approval processes and ensure the stability of credit funds, which will enhance the government's payment capacity for these projects [11] - **Asset Quality Improvement**: If the implementation of PPP projects is secured, it is expected to solidify the asset quality of construction companies, potentially leading to a recovery in price-to-book ratios [11] - **Fiscal and Project Initiatives**: The report outlines that the urgency for stabilizing growth has increased, with expectations for new policy financial tools and significant project investments to support infrastructure development [11] - **Investment Opportunities**: The report suggests focusing on state-owned enterprises with low price-to-book ratios and ecological landscape companies, particularly those benefiting directly from PPP projects and major regional developments [11]

Core Viewpoint - The construction industry is experiencing a decline in prosperity, with a slowdown in fixed asset investment growth [2] Group 1: Construction Industry Indicators - In July, the construction industry Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.6, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points from the previous month [2][1] - The construction business activity index was also 50.6%, down 2.2 percentage points from last month [2][1] - The new orders index for the construction industry was 42.7%, reflecting a decline of 2.2 percentage points from the previous month [2][1] - The input price index for the construction industry rose to 54.5%, an increase of 6.2 percentage points from last month [2][1] - The sales price index for the construction industry was 49.2%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month [2][1] - The employment index in the construction industry was 40.9%, an increase of 1.0 percentage point from last month [2][1] - The business activity expectation index was 51.6%, down 2.3 percentage points from the previous month [2][1] Group 2: Fixed Asset Investment - From January to July, national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 288,229 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 1.6%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points compared to January to June [2] - The broad infrastructure investment growth rate was 6.67%, down 2.31 percentage points from the previous value, while the narrow infrastructure investment growth rate was 2.89%, down 1.57 percentage points [3] - In the first seven months, investment in electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply increased by 21.5%, while investment in transportation, warehousing, and postal services grew by 3.9% [3] Group 3: Real Estate Sector - From January to July, national real estate development investment was 53,580 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.0%, with the decline expanding by 0.8 percentage points compared to January to June [4] - The sales area of commercial housing was 51,560 million square meters, down 4% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 0.5 percentage points [4] - The area of new housing starts was 35,206 million square meters, down 19.4% year-on-year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points [4] - The area of completed housing was 25,034 million square meters, down 16.5% year-on-year, with the decline expanding by 1.7 percentage points [4] Group 4: Infrastructure Projects - The establishment of the New Tibet Railway Company with a registered capital of 95 billion yuan is expected to boost infrastructure investment [5] - The total investment for the New Tibet Railway is estimated at approximately 175.4 billion yuan per year over a 10-year construction period [5] - The approval of the Yaxia Hydropower Project, with an investment of 1.2 trillion yuan, is expected to further enhance long-term infrastructure investment expectations [5] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Recommendations include companies involved in stable growth, construction, and regional development such as China Power Construction, China Energy Construction, and Shanghai Construction [5] - Focus on companies benefiting from infrastructure investment and those with high dividends, including Anhui Construction, China National Materials, and China Railway Construction [5] - Attention is also drawn to growth sectors such as low-altitude economy and welding robots, with suggestions to monitor design and engineering firms [5]

Key Points - The report highlights a selection of stocks for August, including companies like SF Holding, Satellite Chemical, and others, indicating a focus on potential investment opportunities in various sectors [1] - The macroeconomic analysis points to weaker-than-expected economic data for July, with industrial output and retail sales growth falling short of consensus expectations, suggesting increased pressure for stable growth in the second half of the year [2][6][8] - Satellite Chemical reported a revenue of 23.46 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 20.93%, and a net profit of 2.744 billion yuan, up 33.44% year-on-year, showcasing strong operational resilience and profitability [16][17] - Guizhou Moutai's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 89.4 billion yuan, a 9.1% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 45.4 billion yuan, reflecting a stable operational pace amid industry pressures [21][22] - Pengding Holdings achieved a revenue of 16.375 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a 24.75% increase year-on-year, with a net profit growth of 57.22%, indicating strong performance driven by product structure optimization and increased AI investment [26][27] Macroeconomic Analysis - July's industrial output grew by 5.7% year-on-year, with manufacturing and high-tech industries showing resilience despite external pressures [6][8] - The fixed asset investment growth rate for January to July was 1.6%, with private investment declining by 1.5%, indicating challenges in the investment landscape [7] - The report emphasizes the importance of stimulating domestic demand through various policies, including consumption loan subsidies and infrastructure investments [9][15] Industry Performance - The basic chemical industry, particularly Satellite Chemical, is noted for its integrated advantages in the light hydrocarbon industry chain, which is expected to drive future growth [16][18] - The food and beverage sector, represented by Guizhou Moutai, is adjusting its operational pace to maintain stability amid market pressures, focusing on high-quality growth [21][22] - The electronics sector, particularly Pengding Holdings, is capitalizing on the AI market's growth, with significant investments planned to enhance production capacity and product offerings [26][28]

Economic Data Overview - In July 2025, the industrial added value for large-scale enterprises grew by 5.7% year-on-year, below the expected 6.0% and previous value of 6.8%[1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, compared to an expected 4.6% and a prior value of 4.8%[1] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 1.6%, lower than the expected 2.7% and previous 2.8%[1] Industrial Production Insights - The industrial production growth rate slowed due to "anti-involution" and extreme weather, aligning with seasonal patterns[2] - The electrical machinery and electronic equipment sectors maintained double-digit growth despite a decline, while the automotive sector saw significant downturns[2] - Service sector production index showed resilience with a year-on-year growth rate of 5.8%, slightly down from June[2] Consumer Trends - The year-on-year growth rate of retail sales declined due to demand front-loading and reduced subsidy impacts, particularly in automotive consumption[3] - Restaurant consumption saw a slight recovery, but overall levels remained low, while travel-related services benefited from summer travel[3] - Future consumption growth is expected to stabilize unless stronger supportive policies are introduced[3] Investment Challenges - Fixed asset investment growth has declined for four consecutive months, with manufacturing investment dropping by 5.4 percentage points to -0.3% year-on-year[4] - Infrastructure investment growth fell by 7.3 percentage points to -2.0% year-on-year, affected by high base effects and adverse weather[4] - Despite current challenges, infrastructure investment is anticipated to rebound in the third quarter with accelerated issuance of special bonds[4] Real Estate Sector Analysis - Real estate investment saw an expanded year-on-year decline of 4.1 percentage points to -17.0%, with both construction and completion phases experiencing downturns[5] - Sales continue to be constrained by demand limitations, despite policy relaxations in major cities[5] - The sector remains in a bottoming phase, with future recovery dependent on effective supply-side policies[5]

Macro Economic Overview - The report indicates that the next important time point may be in the late third quarter of 2025, with a suggested asset allocation order of stocks > commodities > bonds > currency [2][4] - In the first half of 2025, China's actual GDP grew by 5.3% year-on-year, laying a good foundation for achieving the annual target of 5.0% [2][4] - Economic data from July shows signs of growth pressure, including weakened external demand due to increased tariffs from the US and sluggish domestic consumption [2][4] Asset Performance - The A-share market saw an increase, with the CSI 300 index rising by 2.37% and the CSI 300 stock index futures up by 2.83% [11][12] - Commodity futures showed mixed results, with coking coal futures up by 0.33% and iron ore down by 1.65% [11][12] - The yield on ten-year government bonds rose by 6 basis points to 1.75%, while active ten-year government bond futures fell by 0.26% [11][12] Policy Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand in the second half of the year, suggesting that policies should be implemented to enhance efficiency and release domestic demand [2][4] - It is noted that the fiscal policy may have room for further adjustments within the year, particularly in light of external pressures easing due to potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][4] Sector Performance - The report highlights that the TMT sector has shown significant growth, with the ChiNext index leading with an 8.58% increase, followed by the Shenzhen Component Index at 4.55% [35][36] - The report also notes that the banking sector has faced declines, with a drop of 3.22% [35][36] Financial Data - In July, new social financing amounted to 1.13 trillion yuan, while new RMB loans decreased by 500 million yuan, indicating weak financing demand in the real economy [4][17] - The M2 money supply grew by 8.8% year-on-year, reflecting a relatively strong liquidity environment despite weak economic indicators [4][17]

Economic Performance - July industrial added value grew by 5.7% year-on-year, down 1.1 percentage points from June and slightly below the consensus expectation of 5.8%[4] - Retail sales in July increased by 3.7% year-on-year, a decline of 1.1 percentage points from June, with non-automotive retail sales growing by 4.3%[12] - Fixed asset investment from January to July showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 1.6%, with private investment declining by 1.5%[23] Sector Analysis - From January to July, manufacturing investment rose by 6.2%, while real estate investment fell by 12.0%[25] - High-tech industries saw a cumulative year-on-year growth of 9.5% in industrial added value, indicating resilience in this sector[7] - Service consumption in July grew by 5.2% year-on-year, supported by strong demand during the summer travel season[15] Challenges and Risks - Economic data for July reflects significant downward pressure on growth, influenced by complex external conditions and adverse domestic weather factors[34] - Price factors continue to drag down nominal growth rates in retail sales and fixed asset investment[34] - Risks include potential global inflation resurgence and rapid economic downturns in Europe and the U.S.[36] Policy Recommendations - The report suggests that proactive macroeconomic policies are essential to stimulate domestic demand and support growth[35] - Attention should be given to the implementation of consumption loan interest subsidies and the impact of U.S.-China trade negotiations on foreign trade dynamics[35]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [10] Core Insights - In the first seven months of the year, narrow infrastructure investment reached 10.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, while broad infrastructure investment was 14.3 trillion yuan, up 7.4% year-on-year [2][7] - In July, narrow infrastructure investment saw a significant decline of 5.2%, marking the first monthly decrease since 2022, indicating increased pressure on infrastructure [12] - Road investment experienced a notable downturn in July, with a year-on-year decrease of 16.6%, while railway investment continued to show positive trends with a growth rate of 12.4% [12] - Actual infrastructure demand appears weak, with cement production in July down 5.3% year-on-year, reflecting pressure on both housing and traditional infrastructure [12] - The government has accelerated the issuance of special bonds, with a total of 28,369 billion yuan issued this year, indicating a focus on stabilizing growth through fiscal measures and major projects [12] Summary by Sections Investment Performance - Narrow infrastructure investment decreased by 5.2% in July, while broad infrastructure investment fell by 1.4% [12] - Cumulative narrow infrastructure investment for the first seven months was 10.5 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.2% [12] Sector Analysis - Road investment saw a significant decline, while railway investment maintained a positive trajectory [12] - Water conservancy investment showed a decrease of 4% in July, but the decline was less severe than in previous months [12] Demand and Growth Strategies - Cement production and sales data suggest a decline in actual infrastructure demand, despite a smaller decrease in cement output compared to investment figures [12] - The report emphasizes the importance of fiscal measures and major projects to stabilize growth, with a focus on significant infrastructure projects [12]