Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond market is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The latest macro - economic data shows that stabilizing growth remains the main theme of the macro - economy in the fourth quarter. The short - term trend of treasury bond futures may be oscillatory, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [1][2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Conditions - On Thursday, most of the main contracts of treasury bond futures opened roughly flat, with the 30 - year contract opening lower. By the close, the 30 - year treasury bond futures main contract TL2603 fell 0.01%, the 10 - year T2603 fell 0.06%, the 5 - year TF2603 fell 0.01%, and the 2 - year TS2603 rose 0.01%. The Wind All - A Index opened slightly higher, rose in the morning session and then declined, continued to oscillate and decline in the afternoon, closing down 0.01% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 1.72 trillion yuan, a slight decline from 1.80 trillion yuan in the previous trading day [1][2] Important Information - **Open Market**: On Thursday, the central bank conducted 356.4 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 300 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net investment of 56.4 billion yuan [1] - **Funding Market**: On Thursday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funding market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.31% throughout the day, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.45%, down from 1.47% in the previous trading day [1] - **Cash Bond Market**: On Thursday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds mostly increased compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of the 2 - year treasury bond decreased by 0.25 BP to 1.43%, the 5 - year increased by 1.01 BP to 1.63%, the 10 - year increased by 0.75 BP to 1.85%, and the 30 - year increased by 0.75 BP to 2.20% [1] - **Industrial Enterprise Data**: From January to October, the operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size was 113.37 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.8% (1 - 9 months: 2.4%, 2024: 2.1%); the total profit was 5950.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% (1 - 9 months: 3.2%, 2024: - 3.3%). In October, due to factors such as a higher base in the same period last year and a rapid increase in financial expenses, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size decreased by 5.5% year - on - year [1] - **Automobile Consumption Policy**: The Ministry of Commerce will promote pilot reforms in automobile circulation and consumption, expand the circulation of second - hand cars, and expand the automobile aftermarket [1] - **Government Meeting**: The State Council executive meeting on November 27 listened to the report on the comprehensive supervision of promoting high - quality development, arranged to promote the provincial - level overall planning of basic medical insurance, reviewed and approved the draft "Regulations on Promoting National Reading", and discussed the draft amendment to the "Certified Public Accountant Law of the People's Republic of China" [1] Market Logic - The increase in the base in the same period last year and the rapid growth of financial expenses led to a 5.5% year - on - year decline in the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in October. As of the end of October, the asset - liability ratio of industrial enterprises above designated size was 58.0%, up 0.3 percentage points year - on - year and the same as at the end of September. The average collection period of accounts receivable of manufacturing enterprises above designated size was 71.2 days, an increase of 2.8 days year - on - year and 0.8 days from the end of September [2] Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [2]

Economic Indicators - Recent physical indicators such as social electricity consumption, railway freight volume, express delivery volume, and excavator sales have shown positive trends [1][4][5] - In October, social electricity consumption reached 857.2 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, marking the highest monthly growth rate this year [4] - From January to October, railway freight volume reached 3.378 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 3%, setting a historical record for the same period [5] - The express delivery volume for the first ten months reached 162.68 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 16.1% [5] - Excavator sales totaled 192,000 units from January to October, a year-on-year increase of 17% [5] Industrial Profit Trends - From January to October, profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 1.9% year-on-year, with a notable 7.8% increase in the equipment manufacturing sector [2][3] - High-tech manufacturing profits grew by 8.0%, surpassing the overall industrial average by 6.1 percentage points [2] - Traditional industries are also showing signs of improvement, with profits significantly above the industry average [2] Policy Support and Investment - The government is implementing policies to stabilize growth, including the acceleration of local government bond issuance and measures to promote private investment [1][7][10] - The "Two Heavy" construction initiative is a key focus for expanding effective investment and fostering new productive forces [8] - The issuance of 5,000 billion yuan in local government bonds aims to support debt resolution and project construction [10][11] - New policy financial tools have been deployed, supporting over 2,300 projects with a total investment of approximately 7 trillion yuan [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the treasury bond in the macro and financial sector is "Oscillation" [3] Core Viewpoints - The main contracts of treasury bond futures mostly opened flat on Wednesday, with the 30 - year contract opening much lower and all contracts declining throughout the day. The latest macro - economic data shows that stabilizing growth remains the main theme of the macro - economy in the fourth quarter. Treasury bond futures may open higher today, and trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday, the main contracts of treasury bond futures mostly opened flat, with the 30 - year contract TL2603 opening much lower. By the close, TL2603 fell 0.86%, T2603 fell 0.36%, TF2603 fell 0.22%, and TS2603 fell 0.05%. The Wande All - A index opened slightly lower, rose in the morning and fell in the afternoon, closing up 0.25% with a trading volume of 1.80 trillion yuan, slightly down from the previous trading day's 1.83 trillion yuan [3][4] Important Information - Open market: On Wednesday, the central bank conducted 213.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 310.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 97.2 billion yuan [3] - Money market: On Wednesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.31% (previous day: 1.32%), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.47% (previous day: 1.45%) [3] - Cash bond market: On Wednesday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds rose compared to the previous trading day. The 2 - year yield rose 0.42 BP to 1.43%, the 5 - year rose 1.84 BP to 1.62%, the 10 - year rose 1.61 BP to 1.85%, and the 30 - year rose 1.75 BP to 2.19% [3] - Policy: On November 25th, six departments issued an implementation plan to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand and further promote consumption, aiming to optimize the supply structure of consumer goods by 2027 and form a high - quality development pattern by 2030 [3] Market Logic - Unemployment rates for certain age groups are higher than last year, indicating that efforts to stabilize growth and employment are still needed. South Korea's exports in the first 20 days of November increased by 8.2% year - on - year, and its imports from China increased by 5.6%, suggesting good export prospects for China in November. The overall inflation level in China remains moderate, and the decline in the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities has widened, with housing prices still bottoming out [3] Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors are advised to conduct band operations [4]

Report Title Localized Debt Resolution Series IV: Usage Characteristics and Outlook of New Local Bond Quotas in 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content. 2. Report Core View - The risk prevention function of new local bonds is strengthening, weakening the negative impact of government bond supply on the bond market. This is reflected in the highest proportion of new local bond quotas allocated to self - reviewed and self - issued provinces, slower issuance progress of new local bonds, and a significant decline in the proportion of project construction bonds [2]. - In 2025, the government may not advance the use of the 2026 hidden debt replacement quota. The net financing of local bonds in November and December may be roughly equal. In 2026, fiscal policy may emphasize sustainability, leading to a stable decline in government debt increments, with a more significant decline in local debt increments. The issuance of new local bonds may accelerate compared to 2025, potentially increasing government bond supply in the first quarter of 2026 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory PART1: 2025 New Local Bond Regional Allocation and Issuance Progress 1.1 Limit Allocation - In the past two years, more new local bond quotas have been allocated to self - reviewed and self - issued provinces, reducing the impact of government bond supply on the bond market. The decline in the supply of new bonds in key provinces reduces the supply of high - coupon assets [9]. - The average growth rate of new local bond quotas in self - reviewed and self - issued provinces in the past two years has exceeded the national average. Key provinces have seen a restorative increase in quotas this year, but their average growth rate in the past two years remains negative. Ten provinces have experienced negative growth in new local bond quotas in the past two years, mostly key provinces [12]. 1.2 Issuance Progress - This year, the issuance of new local bonds has been slow, while the issuance of special refinancing bonds has been fast, aiming to strengthen risk prevention. The slow issuance of new local bonds may be due to staggered issuance with national bonds and special refinancing bonds, and a decrease in the pressure to stabilize growth [13]. - The issuance of non - project construction new local bonds has been fast, while that of project construction new local bonds has been slow, also strengthening the risk prevention function of new bonds [19]. - This year, the issuance progress of new local bonds in self - reviewed and self - issued provinces has been faster than that in other provinces and has accelerated compared to 2024. The issuance speed of new local bonds in key and other provinces has decreased compared to 2024, possibly due to an increase in their risk prevention tasks [22]. PART2: 2025 New Features of New Local Bond Usage 2.1 Two Major Categories - This year, many provinces have divided new special bonds into three uses, corresponding to two major categories: non - project construction (including supplementing fund financial resources and clearing arrears) and project construction. The proportions of these three uses are 24.6%, 16.7%, and 58.7% respectively. The proportion of project construction limits in key provinces is significantly lower [28]. - From January to October this year, the proportion of project construction bonds in the issuance of new local bonds was only 73%, a continuous decline for three years, indicating a weakening of the growth - stabilizing function of new local bonds. The proportion of project construction bonds in key provinces is the lowest, and the proportions in all three types of provinces are on a downward trend [33]. - The new or restarted sub - uses of project construction bonds this year are mainly land reserves, indicating a decline in the growth - stabilizing function of project construction special bonds. Non - project construction bonds have a new use of solving government arrears to enterprises [35]. 2.2.1 Project Construction Category - Compared with the whole year of 2024, the proportion of land reserves in project construction special bonds in the first 10 months of this year has increased by 14 percentage points, the proportion of infrastructure has decreased by 15 percentage points, the proportion of affordable housing has remained stable, government investment funds have emerged from scratch, and the proportion of new infrastructure has increased slightly [39]. 2.2.2 Project Construction Category - The restart of land reserve bonds in 2025 was originally intended to recover existing land, but in reality, they are mostly used for new land reserves. As of October 22, only 33% of the special bonds issued this year for land reserves were used for existing land reserves [43][47]. - Self - reviewed and self - issued provinces are the main issuers of land reserve bonds this year. Non - pilot provinces started issuing land reserve bonds in October, possibly due to the impact of central government approval speed [43]. 2.2.3 Project Construction Category - The scale of special bonds used for the acquisition of existing housing in 2025 is only 101 billion yuan. The scale of special bonds for the acquisition of existing housing and land is low, and they mostly target local state - owned enterprises, so their effect on reducing inventory and protecting real estate enterprises is weak [48]. 2.2.4 Project Construction Category - Using special bonds for government investment funds is beneficial for supporting science and technology innovation. This year, the scale of such special bonds may be about 125 billion yuan. Their impact on the bond market is limited [52][57]. 2.3.1 Non - Project Construction Category - The uses of debt - repayment new special bonds have expanded this year, and the scale has increased. "Solving government arrears to enterprises" and "supplementing government fund financial resources" are essentially debt - repayment, but the types of debts repaid are different [58]. - It is estimated that 567.9 billion yuan of arrears - clearing special bonds will be issued this year. From 2026 to 2028, 1367.9 billion, 1083.9 billion, and 800 billion yuan of new special bonds may be used for debt - repayment respectively [64]. 2.3.2 Non - Project Construction Category - Only 26 billion yuan of special bonds for capital replenishment of small and medium - sized banks were issued in the first 10 months of this year, and there is still a remaining quota of 20 billion yuan. Such bonds may be issued again by the end of this year [65]. PART3: In - Year and 2026 Outlook 3.1 In - Year Outlook - The progress of using the remaining quota is slow, so it is unlikely that the government will advance the use of the 2026 hidden debt replacement quota this year. Considering the remaining quota, the net financing of local bonds in November and December may be roughly equal, about 516.4 billion and 516.7 billion yuan respectively [75]. 3.2 2026 Outlook - The first year of the Five - Year Plan does not necessarily correspond to fiscal stimulus. It mainly depends on the pressure to stabilize growth. From a historical perspective, the first year of the Five - Year Plan does not always see fiscal stimulus [76]. - In 2026, fiscal policy may emphasize sustainability, leading to a stable decline in government debt increments. The proportion of local debt in incremental government debt may decline [84]. - The government debt increment in 2026 may be 14 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 0.3 trillion yuan compared to 2025. The local debt increment may be 7.2 trillion yuan, a decrease of about 0.5 trillion yuan compared to 2025 [87]. - The issuance of new local bonds in 2026 may accelerate compared to this year, and the issuance of debt - repayment new bonds may be more front - loaded, potentially increasing government bond supply in the first quarter of 2026 [88]. - The proportion of new local bonds used for project construction in 2026 may decline slightly compared to 2025, weakening the growth - stabilizing function. The scale of project construction special bonds used for new infrastructure and government investment funds may increase, but their impact on economic growth may be limited [94].

Core Viewpoint - The home appliance industry is expected to perform relatively steadily in November 2025, with the white goods sector experiencing a minor decline of 0.41% [1] Industry Summary - The total production of the three major white goods has decreased by 17.7% year-on-year, with air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines seeing declines of 23.7%, 9.4%, and 0.2% respectively [1] - In terms of exports, washing machine exports have increased by 5% year-on-year, while air conditioner exports have decreased by 13.8%, with some production capacity shifting to Southeast Asia [1] - During the Double Eleven shopping festival, there was a notable upgrade in product structure, with retail sales of built-in refrigerators increasing by 16.3% and dual-system refrigerators rising by 49.9% [1] - The share of mid-to-high-end price segments has increased due to the popularity of 12kg large-capacity washing machines and partition washing functions [1] - The white goods sector is characterized by "low valuation, high dividends, and stable growth" attributes [1] Company Summary - The home appliance ETF (159996) tracks the home appliance index (930697), which selects listed companies involved in the manufacturing and sales of white goods and kitchen small appliances [1] - This index reflects the overall performance of listed companies in the home appliance industry and has strong consumer attributes and cyclical characteristics, providing a comprehensive view of market dynamics and development trends in China's home appliance sector [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information available Group 2: Report's Core View - The macroeconomic theme in the fourth quarter is still stable growth. Influenced by the overnight rise in US stocks and the positive news of the phone call between Chinese and US leaders, the Wande All - A Index opened higher on Tuesday, rose in the morning and then fluctuated and declined slightly, closing 1.24% higher than the previous trading day with a trading volume of 1.83 trillion yuan. The 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond futures contracts corrected on Tuesday, while the medium - and short - term contracts were basically flat. The central bank released 1000 billion yuan in long - term funds through MLF, and the capital side is relatively loose. Treasury bond futures may fluctuate in the short term. Traders are advised to conduct band operations [1][2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, most of the Treasury bond futures' main contracts opened roughly flat, with the 30 - year contract opening significantly lower. It rose in the morning and fluctuated horizontally in the afternoon. By the close, the 30 - year Treasury bond futures' main contract TL2603 fell 0.33%, the 10 - year T2603 fell 0.08%, the 5 - year TF2603 was flat, and the 2 - year TS2603 rose 0.01% [1] Important Information - **Open Market**: On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 302.1 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 1 trillion yuan of MLF operations. With 407.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 900 billion yuan of MLF maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 5.4 billion yuan [1] - **Funds Market**: On Tuesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funds market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.32% throughout the day, the same as the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.45%, down from 1.47% in the previous trading day [1] - **Cash Bond Market**: On Tuesday, the closing yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds mostly rose slightly compared with the previous trading day. The yield of the 2 - year Treasury bond fell 0.13 BP to 1.43%, the 5 - year rose 0.75 BP to 1.60%, the 10 - year rose 0.91 BP to 1.83%, and the 30 - year rose 1.65 BP to 2.18% [1] - **US Economic Data**: US PPI in September increased 2.7% year - on - year (expected 2.7%, previous 2.6%), 0.3% month - on - month (expected 0.3%, previous - 0.1%); core PPI increased 2.6% year - on - year (expected 2.7%, previous 2.8%). US retail sales in September increased 0.2% month - on - month (expected 0.4%, previous 0.60%). ADP weekly data on Tuesday showed more signs of weakness in the US labor market, with the pace of layoffs accelerating in the past four weeks. On average, private enterprises cut 13,500 jobs per week in the past four weeks, up from 2,500 jobs per week in the previous update a week ago [1] Market Logic - In October, the unemployment rate of the 16 - 24 age group (excluding students) in urban areas was 17.3%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and that of the 25 - 29 age group was 7.2%, 0.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Stable growth and employment still need to be strengthened. South Korea's exports in the first 20 days of November increased 8.2% year - on - year, and its imports from China increased 5.6% year - on - year, indicating good export prospects for China in November. The wholesale prices of agricultural products fluctuated narrowly in mid - November, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index declined slightly, and the overall inflation level in China remained moderate. The year - on - year decline in the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large and medium - sized cities widened in mid - November, and housing prices continued to bottom out. The latest macroeconomic data shows that stable growth is still the main line of the fourth - quarter macroeconomy [1][2] Trading Strategy - Traders are advised to conduct band operations [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the need for financial legal system construction in China to adapt to new challenges and tasks during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, addressing both external and internal pressures on the economy and financial system [1] Group 1: External Environment - The international environment is increasingly complex and severe, impacting China's economic and financial operations [1] - Financial law must respond to changes and challenges in the external environment, promoting high-level financial openness and preventing risks such as money laundering, financial sanctions, and "long-arm jurisdiction" [1] Group 2: Domestic Environment - The financial system must balance stability in growth, structural adjustments, and risk prevention [1] - Financial law should enhance financial services for the real economy, control financial risks in key areas, prevent abnormal fluctuations in financial markets, and combat illegal fundraising and other illicit financial activities [1] - Rapidly developing digital finance and internet finance innovations need to be integrated into the legal framework in a timely manner [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview Automotive Industry - The automotive industry is projected to achieve sales of 32 million units in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 3% [1] - New energy vehicle (NEV) sales are expected to reach 15.5 million units, with a penetration rate of 50% [1][3] - Concerns include the sustainability of sales post-subsidy reduction and China's global competitiveness in NEVs [1][4] Steel Industry - The steel industry will focus on supply-demand balance, industrial structure optimization, green low-carbon initiatives, and digital transformation [1][5] - Despite a long-term downturn in the real estate sector, steel companies are transitioning towards low-carbon metallurgy and new materials [5] - Demand for steel used in NEVs, stainless steel, special steel, and oriented silicon steel for the power industry is increasing [5] - The commencement of iron ore shipments from Guinea is expected to improve profitability in the steel sector due to falling iron ore prices [5] Building Materials and Light Industry - The building materials sector aims to develop green building materials, targeting revenues exceeding 300 billion yuan, focusing on steel structures and integrated forming [1][6] - The light industry is concentrating on smart home products, elderly and infant goods, fashion items, and sports products, driving consumer upgrades [1][6] Power Equipment Industry - The power equipment sector is a key focus for the upcoming year, with a growth target of around 6% and a goal to increase the localization rate to 7% [1][7] - Leading companies are expected to achieve annual revenues of 10% [7] - The sector is poised for growth due to increased market entry of new energy, heightened demand for grid safety, and rising overseas computing power needs [7] Electronic Information Industry - Investment opportunities in the electronic information sector for 2026 include large-scale AI application deployments and significant investments in national supercomputing centers [3][9] - The focus will shift from AI computing power to specific applications in media and gaming, indicating robust growth potential [9] Nonferrous Metals Industry - The nonferrous metals sector is expected to see significant development, with prices rebounding and potential capacity shortages anticipated in 2026 and beyond, which may drive prices higher [10] - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are favorable for gold prices, making the gold sector worth monitoring [10] Machinery and Petrochemical Industries - The machinery sector is expected to experience growth opportunities, particularly in automation investments [11] - The petrochemical industry is shifting towards new materials, including basic chemicals, as part of the new growth strategy [11] Capital Market Insights - The capital market in 2025 has experienced a notable correction, primarily due to skepticism regarding Nvidia's performance, leading to a significant downturn in the global computing industry [12] - A decline in risk appetite has made consumer goods stocks attractive due to their defensive characteristics [12] - It is suggested that now is an opportune time for investors to position themselves for 2026, particularly in cyclical sectors, as price increases are expected to continue [12]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to conduct a 1 trillion yuan MLF operation on November 25, 2025, to maintain liquidity in the banking system, marking the ninth consecutive month of increased MLF operations [1] Group 1: MLF Operations - The PBOC will implement a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price bidding method for the 1 trillion yuan MLF operation, with a one-year term [1] - With 900 billion yuan of MLF maturing in November, the net MLF injection for the month will reach 100 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Economic Context - The increase in MLF operations is aimed at addressing potential liquidity tightening, influenced by the Ministry of Finance's arrangement of 500 billion yuan in local government debt limits for October [1] - The completion of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial instruments in October is expected to boost medium to long-term loan issuance [1] Group 3: Future Expectations - The PBOC is likely to continue using both reverse repos and MLF as policy tools to inject medium-term liquidity into the market [1] - Recent fluctuations in macroeconomic performance suggest that increased MLF operations will help stabilize growth and expectations [1]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to conduct a 1 trillion yuan MLF operation on November 25, maintaining ample liquidity in the banking system [1] - This marks the ninth consecutive month of increased MLF operations, indicating a commitment to support economic growth and stabilize expectations [1] - In November, 900 billion yuan of MLF is maturing, resulting in a net injection of 100 billion yuan, aligning with market expectations [1] Group 2 - The central bank's actions are a response to recent macroeconomic downturns, signaling a continued supportive monetary policy stance [2] - Over the past six months, there has been a sustained net injection of liquidity, with November's net injection remaining high [2] - The PBOC has established a routine for liquidity injections, including 3-month and 6-month reverse repos, and 1-year MLF operations, contributing to a stable funding environment [2] Group 3 - The PBOC's liquidity support is crucial for maintaining a stable funding environment, aiding government bond issuance, and encouraging financial institutions to increase credit supply [2] - There is a possibility of a new round of reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cuts by the end of the year, in response to external and domestic economic conditions [2]