Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The price of finished products is expected to move downward with a weak trend and fluctuate and consolidate, while lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate and strengthen in a range, focusing on the game between the mining end and funds [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Finished Products - Yunnan and Guizhou short - process construction steel producers will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, with an expected impact on the total output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown. Six short - process steel mills in Anhui will also stop production, with a daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the contracted area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, with a month - on - month decrease of 40.3% and a year - on - year increase of 43.2% [2] - The price of finished products continued to decline yesterday, hitting a new low. In the pattern of weak supply and demand and pessimistic market sentiment, the price center continued to shift downward. The winter storage is sluggish this year, providing weak support for prices [2] - The view is that it will operate in an oscillatory and consolidating manner, and the later focuses are on macro - policies and downstream demand [2] Lithium Carbonate - The activity of the lithium carbonate futures market increased significantly yesterday. The contract LC2605 rose in intraday fluctuations, closing at 95,980 yuan/ton, up 2.56% or 2,400 yuan/ton. The price returned to the range above 95,000 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract expanded significantly, reflecting that the market's long - term expectation for lithium carbonate is stronger than the current fundamentals of the spot end. The trading and positions of the main contract increased simultaneously, and the game between long and short funds was intense [1] - On the supply side, the short - term increase is limited, and cost support is emerging. The resumption of production of Jiangxi Jianxiawo lithium mine is slow, and salt lake lithium extraction is restricted. The theoretical delivery profits of producing lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene and lepidolite are negative. On the demand side, rigid demand provides a bottom, and policy expectations boost long - term confidence. The weekly output of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate decreased slightly but inventory was destocked; the weekly output of power batteries increased by 0.7%. The overall operating rate of lithium iron phosphate is expected to remain high. The expectation of the extension of the new energy vehicle purchase tax exemption and the support of the "15th Five - Year Plan" in many places for new energy vehicles and solid - state batteries boost long - term demand resilience. The overall inventory continues to be destocked, and the inventory of downstream links has increased slightly, with terminal replenishment mainly based on rigid demand [2] - The Fed's interest rate cut improves the global demand outlook, and Qinghai's "15th Five - Year Plan" for a 100 - billion - level salt lake industry cluster provides support for the long - term supply guarantee and demand recovery of lithium carbonate. However, the resumption of production of lithium mines is slow, and short - term supply - demand balance dominates the market. The game between long and short funds is intense, and futures prices fluctuate more [3] - The view is that it will fluctuate in a short - term range, focusing on the resumption of lithium mines and the game between funds. Later, attention should be paid to the resumption of lithium mines, downstream demand release, and the game between funds and market sentiment [3]