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美关税政策令脆弱国家面临系统性风险——访马达加斯加经济学家拉库图
Xin Hua She· 2025-05-20 10:08
Core Viewpoint - Madagascar faces systemic risks due to the uncertainty brought by U.S. tariff policies, particularly affecting its fragile economic structure and trade environment [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Impact - The U.S. government announced a potential 47% tariff on products exported from Madagascar, which was later postponed but maintained a 10% baseline tariff [1]. - Short-term effects of the U.S. tariffs are expected to significantly slow down Madagascar's exports, leading to a sharp decline in foreign exchange income and increased unemployment risks [1]. - Long-term uncertainty regarding U.S. tariff policies may undermine international investors' confidence in Madagascar's trade stability, potentially resulting in factory reductions or closures [1]. Group 2: Industry-Specific Effects - The textile industry, a key sector in Madagascar, is projected to suffer the most from the U.S. tariffs, contributing nearly 20% to the country's GDP and providing over 100,000 direct jobs [2]. - Madagascar is the second-largest exporter of apparel to the U.S. among sub-Saharan African countries, following Kenya [2]. - The agricultural sector, particularly the vanilla industry, which accounts for a quarter of Madagascar's export revenue, is also expected to be adversely affected, with the U.S. being the largest market for its vanilla exports [2]. Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - To mitigate the impacts of U.S. tariff uncertainties, African nations, including Madagascar, should enhance trade integration within Africa and seek support from multilateral trade systems [2]. - Madagascar should focus on diversifying export channels, increasing product value-added, and accelerating industrial upgrades to strengthen its economic resilience [2].