更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Ziyi Chen +852-2978-0526 | ziyi.chen@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. 11 September 2025 | 8:32AM HKT Linhai Zhao, Ph.D. +852-3966-4059 | linhai.zhao@gs.com Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. On September 10th, the New York Times reported that the Trump administration has been discussing restrictions on medicines from China, with a draft executive order (EO) that aims to limit the China-invented drug pipeline, through several proposed policies: 1) stricter scrutiny on US pharma licens ...

Group 1 - The company has a strong academic foundation with an MBA in Finance and an MD, enhancing its expertise in the financial sector [1] - The firm specializes in income investing and biotech/pharma investing, with nearly a decade of experience in these areas [2] - The organization focuses on identifying both short-term catalyst-driven opportunities and long-term investment strategies in the biotech sector [3] Group 2 - Subscribers receive regular portfolio trade alerts and have access to an interactive chat feature, promoting engagement and support [4] - The company has published a best-selling book on biotech investing and offers an online course, showcasing its commitment to educating investors [4] - The firm provides custom biotech analysis upon request, ensuring tailored insights for its audience [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment stance on China's biotech and pharmaceutical sector, driven by the evolving domestic drug innovation policies and the strengthening home market [1][2]. Core Insights - China's National Healthcare Security Administration (NHSA) and National Health Commission (NHC) have introduced a new policy framework aimed at promoting drug innovation, particularly through a new category for commercial insurance innovative drugs [1][2]. - The new commercial insurance innovative drug list is designed to include drugs that demonstrate significant clinical benefits and exceed the coverage scope of basic medical insurance, with exemptions from certain existing restrictions [2][7]. - The report highlights the importance of the new policy in addressing the stagnation of basic medical insurance fund inflows, which could limit the capacity of China's single-payer system in the long run [1]. Summary by Sections Drug Policy Framework - The NHSA and NHC's new policy framework aims to establish a diversified healthcare social security system by 2030, facilitating drug innovation and addressing critical payor/access aspects [1]. - The introduction of the commercial insurance drug list is a significant step towards enhancing the ecosystem for drug innovation in China [1]. Innovative Drug List - The new category for innovative drugs will include those with highly differentiated innovation and significant clinical benefits, exempting them from certain restrictions on prescription drugs [2]. - Key aspects such as selection criteria for drugs and payment mechanisms for this category remain to be clarified [2]. R&D and Market Access - The framework encourages the provision of NHSA's national data for innovative drug R&D, which could be beneficial for pharmaceutical companies in China [3][7]. - Incremental financing is encouraged through dedicated funds from commercial insurance to invest in biotech startups, although further guidelines are awaited [7]. - The report notes that local hospitals are encouraged to expedite the decision-making process for drug formularies, particularly for innovative drugs [7].

Group 1 - The company has a strong academic foundation with an MBA in Finance and an MD, enhancing its expertise in the financial sector [1] - The company operates as a registered investment advisor and professional money manager, focusing on income investing and biotech/pharma investing [2] - The company emphasizes community building for sharing and thriving breakthrough investment ideas in the biotech/pharma industry [2] Group 2 - The company provides in-depth analysis of income investing and long-term takeover potential biotech/pharma stocks, identifying both short-term and long-term investment opportunities [3] - The company offers tailored biotech analysis and regular portfolio trade alerts, facilitating investor engagement and confidence in navigating biotech investments [4] - The company has authored a top-selling book on biotech investing and provides educational resources through an online course [4]

Group 1 - The company has a strong academic foundation with an MBA in Finance and an MD, enhancing its expertise in the financial sector [1] - The firm specializes in income investing and biotech/pharma investing, with nearly a decade of experience in these areas [2] - The organization focuses on identifying both short-term catalyst-driven opportunities and long-term investment strategies in the biotech sector [3] Group 2 - Subscribers receive regular portfolio trade alerts and have access to an interactive chat feature, promoting engagement and addressing inquiries [4] - The company has published a best-selling book on biotech investing and offers an online course, showcasing its commitment to educating investors [4] - The firm provides custom biotech analysis upon request, ensuring tailored insights for its audience [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the healthcare sector in China, but it indicates a positive sentiment towards the sector due to recent stock price increases and license-out deals [1][2]. Core Insights - The surge in China biotech and pharma stock prices, with the Hang Seng Healthcare Index (HSHI) rising approximately 40% year-to-date, is attributed to significant license-out deals and external macroeconomic factors rather than internal improvements [1][2]. - Investors have polarized views on the sustainability of the recent rally, with some attributing it to external changes in the macro environment, particularly in the US healthcare policy landscape [2][3]. - There is a divergence in investor sentiment regarding license-out deals, with some viewing them as one-off events while others are optimistic about continuous outbound deals from Chinese biotech and pharma companies [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The healthcare sector in China has experienced a notable increase in stock prices since the beginning of 2025, driven by significant license-out deals and macroeconomic shifts [1]. Investor Sentiment - Investors are divided on the reasons behind the stock price rally, with many attributing it to external macroeconomic factors rather than improvements within the Chinese healthcare sector [2]. - Concerns exist regarding the sustainability of license-out deals, with some investors cautious about potential equity financing and the consistency of license income [3]. Fund Manager Perspectives - Generalist fund managers who missed the recent rally are now looking to participate, viewing biotech and pharma firms as a safe haven amid changing macro dynamics [4]. - There is a contrast between bullish investors, who are not concerned about current elevated valuations, and bearish investors, who prefer healthcare laggards with stable revenue growth and dividend payouts [4].