Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Metals & Mining - **Event**: GS Asia Commodity Corporate Day held from February 2-4, featuring 13 companies involved in various commodities including copper, aluminum, lithium, tungsten, nickel, cobalt, rare earths, gold, silver, graphite, potash, coal, and battery materials [1][2] Core Insights - **Positive Sentiment**: There is a generally positive outlook among miners and producers for most commodities, supported by solid supply and demand fundamentals [2] - **Supply Constraints**: Current supply constraints differ from past cycles, influenced by factors such as government-imposed controls (e.g., production quotas in China and Indonesia) and increased trade barriers [2] - **Long-term Value Appreciation**: Miners and producers are increasingly recognizing the long-term value of resources, particularly in copper, gold, lithium, and tungsten, with expectations of output growth ranging from 20% to 100% over the next 3-5 years [3] Company-Specific Insights China Qinfa Group (中国秦发) - **Key Commodities**: Focus on coal production, particularly in Indonesia [11] - **Government Regulations**: Increased supply discipline due to government regulations, including production quotas and potential export taxes [11] - **Production Capacity**: Anticipated production output of over 10 million tons of raw coal by 2026, with significant growth expected from underground mining operations [12][13] - **Cost Structure**: Current total unit cost is Rmb310 per ton, with expectations to reduce costs to Rmb200 per ton as operations ramp up [15] - **CAPEX Plans**: Future capital expenditures will focus on expanding mining operations, with an average cost of Rmb2.0-3.0 billion per pit [17] Additional Important Points - **Geographic Focus**: Preferred mining assets are primarily located in Africa, Central Asia, and domestic China [3] - **Market Dynamics**: The appreciation of resource values is occurring despite a broad macroeconomic downturn and trends toward de-dollarization [3] - **Production Growth Drivers**: The company is implementing strategies to improve production efficiency and reduce costs, including the use of advanced mining techniques and partnerships for coal chemical production [18] Conclusion The conference highlighted a robust outlook for the metals and mining industry, driven by strong demand fundamentals and strategic adaptations to supply constraints. Companies like China Qinfa Group are positioning themselves for significant growth through regulatory compliance and operational efficiencies.

Core Viewpoint - Chilean Cobalt Corp. has received funding from Corfo for a research and development project aimed at sustainably recovering cobalt from tailings and mining waste, aligning with the company's commitment to innovation and responsible mineral development in Chile [1] Group 1: Company Initiatives - The project supports Chilean Cobalt's focus on circular economy practices and responsible critical minerals development [1] - The funding is part of Corfo's program, "R&D Challenges for Sustainable Productive Development," which aims to enhance environmental performance and create new opportunities [1] Group 2: Industry Context - The initiative is designed to strengthen Chile's position in strategic critical minerals supply chains by adopting advanced technologies [1]

Core Insights - China's coal mine output is expected to decline marginally with a negative CAGR of 0.1% due to competition from renewable sources and issues with lower-quality coal reserves [1] - The Asia Pacific region is projected to account for 72.7% of global coal production in 2024, with China being the dominant producer at 71.3% [2] - The US trade policies under Donald Trump are creating market volatility and geopolitical shifts in the mining industry, prompting countries to adjust their strategic positions [3] - Major mining hubs in the Asia Pacific face challenges such as infrastructure gaps, high operational costs, and policy instability [4] - The Asia Pacific holds significant mineral reserves, accounting for 56.6% of total rare earths and substantial shares of other minerals [5] - China produces a significant portion of global minerals, including 51.8% of coal and 43.2% of lead in 2024, positioning itself as a central player in the global mining industry [6] - The outlook for China's mining sector varies across commodities, with critical minerals expected to see growth while precious metals face declines [7] - India is projected to increase its coal production by 5.2% to 1,511.2 million tons by 2030, driven by government initiatives [8] - Other key minerals in India are expected to see negative growth due to mine closures and lack of new capacity [9] - Indonesia is a leading producer of nickel and cobalt, with significant growth expected in both sectors through 2030 [10][11] - The Philippines is undergoing regulatory reforms to enhance its mining sector, focusing on sustainable practices and fair revenue sharing [12] - Nickel production in the Philippines is expected to remain flat due to planned mine closures [13] Industry Trends - The Asia Pacific's coal production is projected to grow marginally at a CAGR of 0.8% from 2025 to 2030, with China maintaining a dominant position [2] - The mining sector in the Asia Pacific is characterized by abundant reserves and strong domestic demand, but faces challenges from geopolitical pressures and internal inefficiencies [4][5] - Critical minerals are driving growth in the mining sector, with lithium, graphite, and uranium expected to see steady increases [7] - The regulatory environment in the Philippines aims to promote transparency and sustainable mining practices, which could impact future investments [12]

Core Insights - Cobalt production is experiencing significant growth due to rising demand and substantial investments, with global output expected to reach 330 kilotonnes in 2025, marking an 8.0% increase [1] - The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is projected to maintain its dominance in the cobalt market, accounting for approximately 72% of global output in 2025 [1] - Indonesia is emerging as a key player, expected to produce 59.8 kilotonnes of cobalt in 2026, reflecting a 21.2% increase from the previous year [4] Group 1: Global Cobalt Production - Global cobalt output is anticipated to grow by 6.9% to reach 352.8 kilotonnes in 2026, driven by supply increases from the DRC and Indonesia [2] - The DRC's cobalt mine output is projected to grow by 4.4% to reach 247.7 kilotonnes in 2026, supported by high-grade feed from Glencore's Mutanda and the Musonoi underground project [3] Group 2: DRC's Cobalt Supply - The DRC's leading position in cobalt supply is bolstered by vast resources and strategic partnerships with Chinese mining companies, facilitating large-scale mine development [2] - Key contributors to DRC's production include China Molybdenum's Kisanfu and Tenke Fungurume Mining operations, which are expected to sustain positive production momentum [3] Group 3: Indonesia's Cobalt Growth - Indonesia's rise in cobalt production is largely attributed to investments in high-pressure acid leach (HPAL) facilities, with new projects like Pomalaa and Morowali set to commence in 2026 [4] - The ongoing ramp-up of Zhejiang Huayou's Huafei Cobalt-Nickel Project and expansions at Ningbo Lygend Mining's PT Halmahera Persada Lygend Project will further support Indonesia's growth trajectory [4]

Core Insights - Electra Battery Materials Corporation has initiated a new program to enhance mineral deposit modeling and feedstock integration at its Iron Creek cobalt-copper project in Idaho, aligning with U.S. efforts to increase domestic critical mineral production and reduce reliance on foreign supply chains [1][2][3] Company Developments - The financing for Electra's North American cobalt refinery is complete, with construction set to resume, allowing the company to leverage its improved balance sheet for growth and to onshore both mineral processing and mining capabilities to meet rising U.S. demand for critical minerals [2][3] - Electra's CEO, Trent Mell, emphasized the strategic importance of Idaho for domestic cobalt production, highlighting the company's plans to diversify its feedstock base by sourcing domestically [3][6] - A new geological research program at Iron Creek, in collaboration with the Centre to Advance the Science of Exploration to Reclamation in Mining (CASERM), aims to refine the geological model and guide future drilling campaigns [4][5][6] Exploration and Resource Development - The new geological program will utilize advanced scanning techniques to better define mineralized zones, which are critical for guiding future drilling efforts [6][9] - Electra holds 10-year exploration permits covering 91 designated drill pad locations across Iron Creek and Ruby, with plans for a drilling restart in spring 2026 based on new findings [9][10] - The company is also collecting bulk samples from Adit 1 for metallurgical testing to refine process design parameters and assess future feedstock integration into its refining operations [10][11] Strategic Vision - Electra's long-term strategy focuses on building a vertically integrated supply chain for critical minerals in North America, with the Idaho mineral assets potentially serving as a domestic feedstock source [11][12] - The company aims to create a continental supply chain that starts with American mining and culminates in refined cobalt sulfate for battery production in North America [12][14]

Group 1: Mineral Production in Africa - Africa is a significant global hub for mineral production, holding 79.3% of total PGM reserves, 61.7% of chromium reserves, and substantial shares of cobalt (54.5%), manganese (36.5%), diamonds (32.4%), bauxite (25.5%), copper (8.2%), gold (7.8%), and lithium (1.6%) [1] - The region accounted for nearly 80.3% of global platinum production in 2024, with a forecasted decline of 6.4% in 2025 due to heavy rains and operational challenges [2] - South Africa produced 71.5% of global platinum and 42.7% of chromium in 2024, facing structural issues like high electricity costs and labor inefficiencies [3] Group 2: Cobalt and Copper Production - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) accounted for 97.2% of Africa's cobalt production in 2024, with a projected growth of 2.5% in 2025 [4] - DRC's copper production is expected to grow at a CAGR of 3.3% through 2030, supported by expansions at various projects [4] - Africa's second-largest copper producer is forecast to see a 19.2% increase in copper production in 2025, reaching 937.5 kilotonnes, driven by higher output from ZCCM Investment Holdings' Mopani mine [4]

Core Viewpoint - The US has canceled a $500 million tender for cobalt procurement, which was intended to build resilience against critical minerals shortages, following multiple extensions and less than two months after its launch [1]. Group 1: Tender Cancellation - The Defense Logistics Agency (DLA) initially invited bids for up to 7,500 tons of alloy-grade cobalt over five years, marking the first stockpile acquisition since 1990 [1]. - The cancellation was due to unresolved issues with the Statement of Work, with plans to re-issue the solicitation once these issues are addressed [2]. Group 2: Supplier Limitations - Eligible suppliers for the cobalt tender were limited to three producers: Vale SA in Canada, Sumitomo Metal Mining in Japan, and Glencore's Nikkelverk refinery in Norway, indicating a preference for sourcing from allied nations [3]. Group 3: Challenges in Stockpiling - Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy highlighted significant challenges in the US stockpiling initiative, emphasizing the need for clarity, strategic alignment, and substantial investment [4][5]. - Concerns were raised about poor storage conditions potentially degrading cobalt's usability over time, which could undermine the value of the stockpile [5]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - Earlier this year, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which produces approximately 75% of the world's cobalt, banned exports to curb oversupply and increase prices, resulting in a more than doubling of prices [6]. - The DRC has since replaced its export ban with a quota-based system, requiring companies to export their full allocated volumes or risk losing their quotas [7]. Group 5: Future Strategies - The Trump administration is shifting towards equity stakes in strategic industries as a response to market uncertainties, with plans to enhance efforts in controlling critical supply chains rather than solely relying on stockpiles [8][9].

Core Points - The Congolese government has announced the implementation details of cobalt export quotas to regulate export order and promote local value addition of strategic minerals [1] Group 1: Export Quota and Distribution Mechanism - The Strategic Mineral Market Regulatory Bureau has established a basic export quota distribution plan for cobalt in the fourth quarter of 2025, approving 3,625 tons for October, 7,250 tons for November, and 7,250 tons for December [2] - Quotas will be allocated based on each company's export volume from 2022 to 2024 [2] Group 2: Strict Access and Enforcement Standards - Companies with less than 100 tons of cobalt export volume in 2024, without their own refining facilities, or with depleted cobalt reserves are excluded from the quotas [3] - Quotas cannot be transferred or deferred, and any unused portions will be reclaimed starting January 2026 [3] - The Bureau has the authority to revoke quotas from companies that violate regulations, particularly those handling unauthorized artisanal mineral sources or privately transferring quotas [3] Group 3: Establishment of National Strategic Quota - Starting in 2026, a national strategic quota will be established to support industrial and strategic projects of national significance, aimed at extending the cobalt industry chain in Congo [4] - This initiative is intended to support domestic cobalt refining, conversion, and downstream manufacturing, contributing to the development of a local value chain [4] Group 4: Implementation and Supervision - All export operations must occur at designated approved border ports [5] - Companies applying for export quotas must provide environmental and tax compliance certificates, export data from the past three years, and relevant information certified by mining management authorities [5] Group 5: Approved Companies and Implications - A list of 21 companies approved for cobalt export by the end of 2025 has been released, indicating a significant step by the Congolese government in strengthening cobalt resource governance, optimizing export order, and promoting industrial upgrades [6]

Core Points - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) will replace its cobalt export ban with an annual quota system starting from October 16, 2025 [1] - The DRC accounted for approximately 70% of global cobalt production last year, and the export ban was initially imposed in February 2023 due to falling cobalt prices [1][2] - The new quota system will allow miners to export up to 18,125 tonnes of cobalt for the remainder of 2025, followed by annual quotas of 96,600 tonnes for both 2026 and 2027 [1] Industry Impact - The shift to a quota system aims to address rising conflicts in eastern Congo, where illegal mining is linked to violence involving M23 rebels [3] - The quota system is intended to manage inventories and stabilize cobalt prices, receiving support from Glencore but facing opposition from CMOC [3] - Traders emphasize the need for stable prices before lifting the export ban, highlighting the necessity for cobalt-producing countries like the DRC and Indonesia to manage oversupply [4] Regulatory Framework - The DRC's mining regulator will allocate 10% of future export volumes for national strategic projects, with quotas adjustable based on market conditions and local refining capabilities [5] - The regulator has the authority to repurchase cobalt stocks that exceed the quarterly quotas assigned to individual companies [5] Company Developments - Glencore is reportedly in discussions to sell a majority stake in the Kamoto Copper Company (KCC), which operates a significant copper and cobalt project in the DRC [6] - KCC has faced operational challenges and a royalty-related dispute with the Congolese Government amid declining cobalt prices [6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Cobalt and Nickel Production in the Asia Pacific region, specifically focusing on the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and its impact on Chinese producers [2][8] Core Insights - **Cobalt Export Ban**: The DRC has extended its cobalt export ban until October 15, 2025, which will be followed by export quotas [2][8] - **Global Production Impact**: The DRC accounted for over 70% of global cobalt production in 2024. The new quotas are expected to lead to a significant supply decline in 2026-27 [2][8] - **CMOC Sales Projections**: CMOC sold 109,000 tons (kt) of cobalt in 2024 and 46kt in the first half of 2025. Assuming a quota similar to the national level, CMOC could sell approximately 8.6kt in Q4 2025 and around 43.6kt in 2026-27 [2][8] - **Nickel Smelters' Advantage**: Nickel smelters in Indonesia using laterite nickel ore and the High Pressure Acid Leach (HPAL) method can obtain about 10% cobalt as a byproduct. This is expected to benefit them from potential cobalt price increases [3][8] - **Production Estimates**: Huayou's cobalt production from its Indonesian smelting operations is estimated to be around 20kt in 2025 (11kt attributable), while GEM's production is estimated at 12kt (6kt attributable) [3][8] Additional Important Information - **Export Quota Details**: The maximum export amount is set at 18,125 tons for 2025, with a breakdown of 3,625 tons for October and 7,250 tons for both November and December. For 2026-27, the maximum export amount is projected to be 96.6kt, which is about 40% of normal production levels [8] - **Quota Distribution**: Quotas will be allocated to companies based on historical export volumes, excluding those that exported less than 100 tons in 2024 or whose cobalt resources have been depleted [8] Industry Rating - **Overall Industry View**: The Greater China Materials sector is rated as Attractive, indicating a positive outlook for the industry over the next 12-18 months [5]