[music] [music] I walked in here, took this topic and I didn't understand what I should come and share with you. And a mother to a Gen Z, the room that has in the same age bracket, I had to think and think hard about what is it I wanted to do. And my topic is something that's always been spoken about. Africa, Africa, Africa, right? And I'm just hoping that what I do and what I share with you will be able to inspire you to think differently and be able to say that we need to move forward. And as we talk abou ...

-In the foothills outside the port city of Guayaquil, the economic capital of Ecuador, just 150 miles south of the equator, the landscape is dominated by the leafy green cacao plant. This is a ripe cacao fruit, right. -Yes, this is a ripe cacao fruit.[Thuds] -That's. wow. And these are.The beans are inside, right. -Yes, those are the beans, and around them it's the pulp. -This is a golden age of cocoa production in Ecuador, with output expected to reach 800,000 tons by 2030, more than double 2023 levels.The ...

Group 1: Cocoa Price Movements - Cocoa prices are experiencing a significant increase, with December ICE NY cocoa up by 2.88% and London cocoa up by 2.06% [1][2] - NY cocoa has reached a 1.5-week high due to weather concerns in West Africa, particularly heavy rain in the Ivory Coast affecting cocoa field access [2][4] Group 2: Supply and Inventory Factors - Tighter cocoa inventories are supporting price increases, with ICE-monitored cocoa inventories in US ports falling to a 4.25-month low of 2,092,823 bags [4] - The pace of cocoa exports from the Ivory Coast has slowed, with shipments totaling 1.82 million metric tons (MMT) this marketing year, reflecting a 5.8% increase from last year but a decrease from a previous 35% increase [4] Group 3: Demand and Quality Concerns - Weak global cocoa demand has negatively impacted prices, with European cocoa grindings down by 7.2% year-on-year and Asian grindings down by 16.3% year-on-year [10] - Quality issues with the Ivory Coast's mid-crop cocoa, attributed to late rain, are supporting prices, with the average estimate for this year's mid-crop at 400,000 MT, down 9% from last year [8] Group 4: Production Outlook - Optimism regarding this year's cocoa crop harvest in West Africa is present, with a cocoa pod count reported to be 7% above the five-year average [6] - Ghana's cocoa production is projected to increase by 8.3% year-on-year for the 2025/26 crop year, which may exert downward pressure on cocoa prices [11] Group 5: Global Cocoa Deficit and Future Projections - The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) revised its 2023/24 global cocoa deficit to 494,000 MT, the largest in over 60 years, with production down by 13.1% year-on-year [12] - ICCO forecasts a global cocoa surplus of 142,000 MT for 2024/25, marking the first surplus in four years, with production expected to rise by 7.8% year-on-year [12]

Cocoa Prices and Market Dynamics - Cocoa prices have increased for two consecutive days, with December ICE NY cocoa closing up by 0.80% and December ICE London cocoa up by 0.50%, driven by weather concerns in West Africa [1] - Tighter cocoa inventories are supporting prices, with ICE-monitored cocoa inventories in US ports falling to a four-month low of 2,099,630 bags [3] - The slowdown in cocoa exports from the Ivory Coast is bullish for cocoa prices, with shipments reported at 1.81 million metric tons (MMT) for the marketing year, a 5.8% increase from last year but down from a larger 35% increase seen in December [3] Supply and Quality Concerns - Quality issues regarding the Ivory Coast's mid-crop cocoa are supportive of prices, with the average estimate for this year's mid-crop at 400,000 MT, down 9% from last year's 440,000 MT [7] - Optimism about this year's cocoa crop harvest in West Africa is present, with Mondelez reporting a cocoa pod count 7% above the five-year average [5] - Nigeria's cocoa production is projected to fall by 11% year-on-year to 305,000 MT for the 2025/26 crop year, which is supportive for cocoa prices [8] Demand Trends - Weakness in global cocoa demand has been a bearish factor, with Q2 European cocoa grindings down 7.2% year-on-year to 331,762 MT, and Q2 Asian cocoa grindings down 16.3% year-on-year to 176,644 MT, the smallest amount for a Q2 in eight years [9] - Higher cocoa production in Ghana is bearish for cocoa prices, with the Ghana Cocoa Board projecting an 8.3% year-on-year increase in the 2025/26 crop to 650,000 MT [10] Global Cocoa Market Outlook - The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) revised its 2023/24 global cocoa deficit to 494,000 MT, the largest deficit in over 60 years, with production falling by 13.1% year-on-year to 4.380 MMT [11] - Looking ahead, ICCO forecasts a global cocoa surplus of 142,000 MT for 2024/25, marking the first surplus in four years, with production expected to rise by 7.8% year-on-year to 4.84 MMT [11]

Core Viewpoint - Cocoa prices have shown a recovery from 1.5-month lows due to weather concerns in West Africa, leading to short covering in cocoa futures [2] Price Movements - December ICE NY cocoa (CCZ25) increased by +161 (+2.23%) and December ICE London cocoa 7 (CAZ25) rose by +60 (+1.19%) [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Cocoa prices initially fell due to expectations of growing supplies amid weakening demand, with chocolate makers like Lindt & Sprüngli AG and Barry Callebaut AG lowering their sales volume guidance [3] - The European Cocoa Association reported a -7.2% year-on-year decline in Q2 European cocoa grindings, while the Cocoa Association of Asia noted a -16.3% year-on-year drop, indicating weak global demand [9] Weather Impact - Heavy rain in the Ivory Coast has hindered farmers from accessing cocoa fields, while dryness in Ghana and Nigeria has damaged crops [2] - The past 60 days have been the driest on record since 1979 for West Africa, affecting cocoa pod retention before the main harvest [5] Crop Estimates - The latest cocoa pod count in West Africa is 7% above the five-year average, indicating a potentially larger crop than last year [4] - The average estimate for this year's Ivory Coast mid-crop is 400,000 MT, down -9% from last year's 440,000 MT [7] - Nigeria's Cocoa Association projects an -11% year-on-year decline in cocoa production for the 2025/26 crop year [8] - Ghana's Cocoa Board anticipates an +8.3% year-on-year increase in cocoa production for the 2025/26 crop [10] Inventory Levels - ICE-monitored cocoa inventories in US ports have fallen to a 3.75-month low of 2,133,116 bags, which is supportive for prices [4] Global Cocoa Deficit - The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) revised its 2023/24 global cocoa deficit to -494,000 MT, the largest in over 60 years, with production down by 13.1% year-on-year [11]