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Core Insights - Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) is set to report its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results on October 29, 2025, after market close [1] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for SBUX's fourth-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is 56 cents, reflecting a 30% decline from 80 cents in the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue expectations are approximately $9.35 billion, indicating a 3% increase year-over-year [2] Performance Factors - The company's performance is anticipated to show progress from its "Back to Starbucks" turnaround strategy, benefiting from the nationwide rollout of the Green Apron Service model aimed at enhancing service standards and operational efficiency [3] - Seasonal offerings, such as the Pumpkin Spice Latte and new protein cold foam beverages, are expected to drive traffic and ticket growth, with same-store sales predicted to rise 0.2% year-over-year [4] - Internationally, revenues are projected to increase by 7.4% year-over-year to $2 billion, driven by growth in China, the U.K., and Mexico [5] Cost Pressures - Despite positive factors, the bottom line may face pressure from high labor costs, increased operating hours due to the Green Apron Service, and ongoing inflation, with total operating expenses expected to rise 8% year-over-year to $5.47 billion [6] - Softer traffic trends in the U.S., particularly during afternoon hours, and a cautious consumer spending environment may negatively impact performance [7] Earnings Prediction - The model indicates that SBUX may not achieve an earnings beat this quarter, with an Earnings ESP of -8.45% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [8][9]

Core Insights - Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) is implementing strategies to enhance operations as it approaches fiscal 2026, focusing on improving the coffeehouse experience and ensuring consistent customer service while building a more resilient business [1] Group 1: Operational Changes - The company is reviewing its North America coffeehouse portfolio under the "Back to Starbucks" plan, leading to the closure of underperforming locations that cannot provide the right environment or achieve sustainable financial results [2] - The total company-operated store count in North America is projected to decline by approximately 1% in fiscal 2025, ending the year with nearly 18,300 stores across the U.S. and Canada, including both company-operated and licensed locations [3] - Starbucks plans to upgrade over 1,000 stores in fiscal 2026 as it anticipates a resumption of growth [3] Group 2: Cost Management - The company is reducing non-retail costs by eliminating around 900 non-retail roles and closing many unfilled positions, aiming to redirect resources towards store operations, customer service, design improvements, and innovation [4] - Early gains from recent initiatives have been reported, with store upgrades leading to increased customer visits, longer stays, and positive feedback, alongside improved transactions and sales during peak hours due to higher staffing [5] Group 3: Financial Performance - Starbucks shares have decreased by 15.2% over the past six months, compared to a 10.4% decline in the industry, primarily due to lower global comparable store sales and increased operational expenses related to the "Back to Starbucks" strategy [6] - Comparable sales in the core U.S. market fell by 2% in the third quarter of fiscal 2025, with transaction volumes down nearly 4% [6] Group 4: International Markets - International markets are showing strong contributions, with China returning to positive sales growth and regions like the United Kingdom, Mexico, and Turkey demonstrating solid momentum, which may support long-term growth prospects [9]