Swiss-based commodities and energy trading house Mercuria Energy Group is moving closer to acquiring a refinery and hundreds of fuel retail stations in Argentina from struggling Brazilian biofuels producer Raízen, according to sources familiar with the talks. Two people with knowledge of the matter said negotiations have advanced significantly, with one noting the transaction could be finalized soon, although risks remain that the deal could still fall through. Another source said a signing may still be w ...

London, United Kingdom and Singapore, Singapore--(Newsfile Corp. - February 8, 2026) - Abaxx Commodity Exchange and Clearinghouse (Abaxx Exchange), together with TMX Trayport, a wholly owned subsidiary of TMX Group, today announced that Abaxx Exchange will extend trading access through TMX Trayport’s Joule trading platform, with connectivity expected before the end of the first quarter of 2026. Through this integration, traders will be able to view Abaxx Exchange markets alongside energy and commodities an ...

Core Insights - The Hecht Commodity Report is recognized as one of the most comprehensive commodities reports available, covering market movements of over 20 different commodities [1][2] - The report provides various market calls including bullish, bearish, and neutral, along with directional trading recommendations and actionable ideas for traders [1][2] Group 1 - The report is authored by Andrew Hecht, a veteran with 35 years of experience on Wall Street, specializing in commodities and precious metals [2] - The Hecht Commodity Report employs a portfolio approach to deliver insights and recommendations for traders [1][2] Group 2 - The report includes a variety of trading strategies and insights aimed at helping traders navigate the commodities market effectively [1][2]

Core Insights - Trafigura is set to load its first vessel for exporting Venezuelan oil to the United States next week, indicating a significant development in the commodities trading sector [1] Group 1 - The Chief Executive of Trafigura, Richard Holtum, communicated this information to U.S. President Donald Trump, highlighting the political and economic implications of this trade [1]

Core Insights - Commodity traders faced significant challenges in 2025, trailing behind most other asset classes with an average hedge fund return of only 2.2% compared to the overall industry average of 10.7% [3] - The volatility in oil prices due to Middle East conflicts and fluctuating crop prices from tariff policies has contributed to the struggles in the commodities market [2][3] - Despite the difficulties, there is a growing interest in commodities trading as firms seek diversification from traditional asset classes [9] Industry Trends - The demand for commodities trading is increasing, with firms like Citadel and Millennium continuing to expand their operations in this area despite recent underperformance [4][5] - The shift towards physical commodities is seen as a major diversification strategy for 2026, as larger firms and startups look for alpha that quantitative approaches cannot easily access [6][7] - Notable hedge fund managers, including Steve Cohen of Point72, are considering entering the commodities market, indicating a potential shift in investment strategies [8]

Core Viewpoint - The US economy is expected to continue its strong performance into 2026, avoiding recession and maintaining robust growth alongside high inflation [1][2]. Economic Outlook - Bank of America has labeled this scenario as "run-it-hot," predicting strong growth and inflation above target due to factors like Fed rate cuts, AI investments, supportive trade policies, and stimulus measures [2][3]. - Goldman Sachs also anticipates robust economic growth in 2026, attributing it to Fed rate cuts in a non-recessionary environment, despite stagnant job growth [4]. Investment Strategies - Analysts suggest that commodities, particularly oil and energy, will be favorable investments in the "run-it-hot" scenario, with Bank of America highlighting commodities as the top trade for 2026 [6][7]. - The investment thesis includes a focus on small caps and cyclicals, indicating a broad range of sectors that could benefit from the anticipated economic conditions [6][8].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the macroeconomic outlook, focusing on global rates, commodities, currencies, and emerging markets, with insights from J.P. Morgan Securities. Core Insights and Arguments US Rates - Hawkish developments across developed market (DM) central banks have led to underperformance in the intermediate sector, aligning with a forecast for modestly higher yields in 2026 as easing cycles wind down [3][14] - The Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to ease rates in January 2026, with the effective funds rate projected to be 3.40% by mid-2026 [11][12] - Treasury yields are forecasted to reach 3.60% for 2-year and 4.25% for 10-year by mid-2026, with slight increases expected by year-end [9][11] International Rates - DM rates have generally sold off due to a hawkish shift in central bank tones and strong data momentum, leading to a lightening of risk in portfolios [4][39] - The Fed's recent actions have not met more hawkish market expectations, contributing to a bearish outlook for the USD [6][80] Commodities - Cocoa's re-inclusion in the Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) is expected to drive significant buying, accounting for 22% of total open interest, overshadowing more modest buying in other commodities like corn and wheat [6] - Natural gas storage withdrawals in North West Europe (NWE) have exceeded forecasts, despite weaker demand trends [6] Currencies - The USD is under pressure due to a dovish Fed stance compared to hawkish developments in other G10 countries [75][79] - Event risks are elevated with upcoming US payroll releases, and a bearish outlook for the USD is contingent on data performance [79][80] Emerging Markets - The outlook for emerging markets (EM) in 2026 is positive, with lower macro volatility expected to support local markets. The recommendation is to stay overweight (OW) on EM FX and rates [6][11] - Growth and inflation are projected to remain stable, with limited central bank easing anticipated [6] Additional Important Insights - The Fed's policy path is now more aligned with J.P. Morgan's forecasts, indicating limited scope for further bearish impulses in the near term [14] - A significant funding gap is expected to emerge in 2027, with coupon size increases anticipated starting in November 2026 [22] - The demand for Treasuries is expected to remain stable, with mutual funds and ETFs likely absorbing 50% of net T-bill supply [32] - The anticipated cuts from the Fed and other central banks are expected to create a more favorable environment for high-yield currencies [68] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the macroeconomic landscape and its implications for various asset classes.

Group 1 - The U.S. Federal Reserve has cut the short-term Fed Funds Rate by 1% in 2024 and an additional 50 basis points in 2025, indicating a response to a weak employment market and pressure on stocks [2] - The Hecht Commodity Report covers market movements of over 29 different commodities, providing bullish, bearish, and neutral calls along with actionable trading recommendations for investors [1][2] - The report is authored by Andrew Hecht, a veteran in the commodities and precious metals sector, who has extensive experience on Wall Street [2] Group 2 - The report aims to deliver comprehensive insights into commodity markets, helping traders and investors make informed decisions [1] - The author maintains positions in various commodities markets, including futures, options, and ETFs, which may change frequently [4]

Financial Performance - Trafigura Group reported a strong year for both its oil and metals divisions [1] Employee Compensation - Trafigura Group boosted payouts to staff [1]

Financial Performance - Trafigura Group's oil and metals divisions experienced a "strong" year [1] - The company maintained resilient profit levels [1] - Staff payouts were boosted [1]