Key Takeaways STX is focusing on shareholder returns in fiscal 2026, resuming buybacks and raising its dividends.STX paid $153M in dividends and repurchased 153,000 shares for about $29M in the fiscal first quarter.Seagate posted a record 40.1% non-GAAP gross margin, supporting strong free cash flow and returns.Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) is emphasizing shareholder returns in fiscal 2026, supported by improving operating performance and stronger cash flow visibility. STX resumed share repurchases, ...

Core Insights - Seagate Technology Holdings plc (STX) has opened fiscal 2026 with strong momentum, achieving a record non-GAAP gross margin of 40.1%, which is an increase of approximately 220 basis points quarter over quarter and about 680 basis points year over year, driven by the adoption of high-capacity nearline products and pricing initiatives [1][8]. Company Performance - The data center business, which includes cloud, enterprise, and VIA customers, accounted for 80% of Seagate's total revenue, indicating a structural shift towards large-scale storage driven by AI and cloud infrastructure [2]. - Cloud exabyte demand has increased for nine consecutive quarters, with nearly 80% of nearline shipments being for capacities of 24TB or higher [2]. - Seagate has ramped up production of its 24–28 terabyte drives, which have become the best-selling product family by revenue and exabyte volume, shipping over 1 million Mozaic drives in the September quarter [3]. Product Development - Seagate is working to qualify its high-capacity Mozaic HAMR drives with five global cloud service providers (CSPs) and aims to qualify three more by the first half of 2026 [4]. - The company is on track to reach a 50% exabyte crossover on nearline HAMR drives in the second half of 2026 and is advancing towards a 5TB per disk technology launch in early 2028 [4]. Financial Outlook - Management expects solid demand from global cloud data centers, projecting revenues of $2.7 billion (+/- $100 million) for the fiscal second quarter, indicating a 16% year-over-year improvement [5]. - The non-GAAP operating margin is projected to increase to approximately 30% at the midpoint of revenue guidance, up from 23.1% in the second quarter of fiscal 2025 [5]. Competitive Landscape - Seagate faces challenges such as exchange rate volatility, high debt burden, and competition from Western Digital Corporation (WDC) and Pure Storage, Inc. (PSTG) [6]. - Western Digital reported a 31% increase in cloud end market revenues, driven by demand for higher-capacity nearline products, and anticipates non-GAAP revenues of $2.9 billion (+/- $100 million) for the second quarter of fiscal 2026, up 20% year over year [7][8]. Market Performance - Over the past year, Seagate's shares have gained 166.2%, outperforming the Zacks Computer Integrated Systems industry's growth of 77.4% [11]. - Seagate's shares are trading at a forward price/earnings ratio of 22.74X, lower than the industry's 25.68X [12].

Core Insights - Seagate Technology Holdings plc is set to report its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings on July 29, with earnings estimated at $2.46 per share, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 134.3% and revenues projected at $2.41 billion, indicating a 27.5% rise from the previous year [1] Group 1: Earnings and Revenue Expectations - The management anticipates quarterly revenues of $2.4 billion, with non-GAAP earnings expected to be $2.4 per share [1] - Seagate has consistently beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 15.67% [1] - The expected mass capacity revenues for Q4 are projected to rise 39.5% year over year to $2 billion [7][8] Group 2: Market Demand and Product Strategy - There is a rising demand for mass capacity storage driven by increasing nearline cloud requirements, aligning with cloud investment cycles and AI-ready data center expansions [2] - Seagate's high-capacity nearline products are experiencing strong demand from cloud customers globally, contributing to increased revenues and profits [3] - The launch of the Mozaic 3+ hard drive platform featuring HAMR technology is expected to enhance Seagate's market share in mass capacity storage solutions [4] Group 3: Technology and Production - Seagate's technology strategy is focused on ramping up HAMR technology to meet the growing demand from cloud customers, with Mozaic drives being the only products in the industry offering 3 terabytes per disk [5] - The company has significantly increased production of its 24-28 terabyte PMR drives, which are now its top-selling product line in terms of revenue and exabyte shipments [4] Group 4: Financial Performance and Margins - The gross margin for the fiscal fourth quarter is projected at 36.8%, an increase from 30.9% in the prior year, driven by strong nearline demand and optimized pricing [9] - Revenue estimates for the HDD segment are pegged at $2.25 million, reflecting a 30.1% increase from the previous year, while the non-HDD segment is expected to decline by 3.4% [8]