Introduction Newell Brands (NWL), a diversified consumer goods company that markets and sells its broad product portfolio (see image below to get a better sense of its product categories) in over 150 countries across the globe (although over 60% of sales are still in the U.S.), has proven to be a source of wealth destruction for investors for a while now. For instance, over the past year, other consumer discretionary stocks have at least managed positive returns of single digits (on average), and other sma ...

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market is set for a strong opening on March 31, 2026, with major index futures showing significant gains, indicating a bullish sentiment as the first quarter concludes [1] - S&P Futures are trading at 6460.25, up 72.00 points (1.13%), Nasdaq Futures at 23402.25, up 262.50 points (1.13%), and Dow Futures at 45971.00, up 506.00 points (1.11%) [2] Sector Performance - The energy sector is leading with the United States Oil Fund (USO) up 4.53%, indicating strong bullish momentum [3] - Financials are also performing well, with the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) up 1.15%, showing bullish divergence despite recent pressures [3] - Conversely, the Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is down 3.93%, the Solar Power ETF (TAN) is down 2.99%, and the Cannabis ETF (MSOS) is down 3.96%, indicating a rotation out of growth-sensitive sectors [4] Major Stock Movements - Apellis Pharmaceuticals Inc. (APLS) has surged 135.5% to $40.25 on high volume, driven by significant corporate developments [5] - Classover Holdings Inc. (KIDZ) is up 64.6%, and Centessa Pharmaceuticals plc (CNTA) has risen 45.6% to $40.15 [5] - On the downside, PepGen Inc. (PEPG) has dropped 52.0% to $2.03, and Phreesia Inc. (PHR) is down 26.4% to $8.40 following recent updates [6] Upcoming Earnings - McCormick & Company Incorporated (MKC) reported Q1 2026 results with an estimated EPS of $0.61, along with early reporters TD SYNNEX Corporation (SNX) and FactSet Research Systems Inc. (FDS) [8] - Nike Inc. (NKE) is set to release its Q3 2026 earnings after the market close, with analysts expecting an EPS of $0.29, which will be crucial for the retail sector [9] - ConAgra Brands Inc. (CAG) and Cal-Maine Foods Inc. (CALM) are scheduled to report before the market opens on April 1 [10]

Group 1 - The ProShares UltraShort Silver ETF (ZSL) is designed to provide investors with -2x the daily performance of silver prices, indicating a leveraged inverse strategy [1] - The ETF has experienced a year-long bull run followed by a challenging start to 2026, suggesting potential volatility in the silver market [1] Group 2 - Michael Del Monte is identified as a buy-side equity analyst with expertise across various sectors including technology, energy, industrials, and materials [1] - Del Monte has over a decade of experience in professional services across multiple industries, which may enhance his analytical insights [1]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market experienced cautious trading and moderate volatility on March 25, 2026, as investors balanced anticipation of tech earnings with concerns over persistent "higher-for-longer" interest rates [1] - Major indexes closed in negative territory, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) down approximately 201 points (0.51%), the S&P 500 (SPX) declining by 0.27%, and the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) down 0.18% [2] Volatility and Investor Sentiment - Volatility remained elevated, with the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) increasing, as investors hesitated to make bold bets ahead of significant earnings reports [3] Nvidia's Performance - Nvidia (NVDA) reported quarterly results that exceeded Wall Street expectations, leading to a surge in after-hours trading; the company announced a 10-for-1 stock split and a significant increase in its quarterly dividend [4] - Nvidia's strong performance positively impacted other AI-related companies, including Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Amazon (AMZN), although gains were mostly realized in after-hours trading [5] Retail Sector Analysis - Target (TGT) shares fell over 7% after reporting a decline in comparable sales and issuing a cautious outlook, citing a "challenging consumer environment" [6] - Conversely, TJX Companies (TJX) saw its stock price rise after beating earnings estimates and raising its full-year guidance, indicating a shift towards discount-oriented retail models [7] Federal Reserve Insights - The FOMC minutes revealed Federal Reserve officials' concerns about inflation, indicating a willingness to tighten policy further if inflation risks materialize, which pressured growth-oriented stocks [8] Other Notable Movers - Lululemon (LULU) dropped nearly 7% following the departure of its Chief Product Officer, while Moderna (MRNA) gained ground due to progress on a bird flu vaccine [9] Upcoming Market Events - Market participants are anticipating the release of weekly initial jobless claims and the preliminary reading of the U.S. Manufacturing PMI, which will be critical for assessing the labor market and potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [10]

Core Insights - The article discusses the author's extensive experience in researching various companies across different sectors, including commodities and technology, highlighting a focus on value investing through a YouTube channel [1]. Group 1: Company Research - The author has researched companies in-depth for over a decade, covering sectors such as oil, natural gas, gold, copper, and technology [1]. - The author has transitioned from writing a blog to creating a value investing-focused YouTube channel, where hundreds of companies have been analyzed [1]. - The preferred focus of the author is on metals and mining stocks, although there is comfort in analyzing other industries like consumer discretionary/staples, REITs, and utilities [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the expertise of Michael Del Monte as a buy-side equity analyst specializing in technology, energy, industrials, and materials sectors, emphasizing his extensive background in professional services across various industries [1]. Group 1: Analyst Background - Michael Del Monte has over a decade of experience in professional services, working in sectors such as Oil & Gas (O&G), Oilfield Services (OFS), Midstream, Industrials, Information Technology, Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) Services, and consumer discretionary [1].

Core Insights - The article highlights the expertise of Michael Del Monte as a buy-side equity analyst specializing in technology, energy, industrials, and materials sectors [1] Group 1: Analyst Background - Michael Del Monte has over a decade of experience in professional services across various industries including Oil & Gas, Oilfield Services, Midstream, Industrials, Information Technology, EPC Services, and consumer discretionary [1]

Summary of US Equity Strategy - March 2026 Industry and Company Overview - The report focuses on the US equity market, particularly the S&P 500 and its sector performance, with insights from Morgan Stanley's equity strategists. Core Insights and Arguments - **Geopolitical Risks and Market Volatility**: Historically, geopolitical events have not led to sustained volatility in equities. The S&P 500 has shown average increases of 2%/6%/8% over 1/6/12 months following such events [5][5][5]. - **Oil Price Impact**: A significant surge in crude oil prices (75%-100%+ year-over-year) would be necessary to materially affect market conditions, which is unlikely in the current early cycle environment [5][5][5]. - **AI Disruption Opportunities**: The current market presents opportunities for well-positioned incumbents and AI adopters with pricing power, as margin expectations for these companies are increasing [5][5][5]. - **Earnings Recovery**: The median stock is experiencing the strongest EPS growth in four years, with expectations for double-digit EPS growth across the market [18][20][26]. - **Sector Recommendations**: - **Overweight**: Financials, Industrials, Health Care, Consumer Discretionary - **Equal Weight**: Tech, Communication Services, Utilities, Materials, Energy - **Underweight**: Staples, Real Estate [34][82]. Additional Important Content - **Earnings Revisions**: Strong earnings revisions have historically led to index increases, with the current consensus pricing in strong earnings for 2026 [44][44]. - **Market Cap vs. Equal Weight Performance**: There are notable differences in performance between cap-weighted and equal-weighted indexes, with certain sectors like Information Technology and Industrials showing significant returns [78][78]. - **Financial Sector Outlook**: Mid-cap banks are expected to benefit from a steepening yield curve, with anticipated EPS growth of 10% in 2026 and 14% in 2027, despite being undervalued compared to larger banks [97][97]. - **Capex Cycle**: The industrial sector is expected to benefit from the emerging US capex cycle, supported by government initiatives and lower interest rates, which are likely to spur investment and M&A activity [89][89]. Conclusion - The report presents a bullish outlook for US equities over the next 6-12 months, driven by earnings recovery, sector-specific opportunities, and favorable macroeconomic conditions. The focus on AI and the expected capex cycle are highlighted as key drivers for growth in specific sectors.

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the expertise of Michael Del Monte as a buy-side equity analyst specializing in technology, energy, industrials, and materials sectors, emphasizing his extensive background in professional services across various industries [1] Group 1: Analyst Background - Michael Del Monte has over a decade of experience in professional services, working in industries such as Oil & Gas (O&G), Oilfield Services (OFS), Midstream, Industrials, Information Technology, Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) Services, and consumer discretionary [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights the expertise of Michael Del Monte as a buy-side equity analyst specializing in technology, energy, industrials, and materials sectors [1] Group 1: Analyst Background - Michael Del Monte has over a decade of experience in professional services across various industries including Oil & Gas, Oilfield Services, Midstream, Industrials, Information Technology, EPC Services, and consumer discretionary [1]