J P M O R G A N North America Equity Research 15 December 2025 Information Services 2026 Outlook: We Expect a Constructive "Narrative Shift" on AI; TRU and SPGI Are Our Top Picks To hear more about key topics covered here, please join our 2026 Outlook Call, TODAY at 10:30AM ET /15:30 UKT. Register to participate here. Replay available within 24 hours on J.P. Morgan Markets at the link here. Info Services stocks underperformed the S&P 500 materially in 2025 with our market cap-weighted J.P. Morgan Info Servi ...

Core Insights - The national average credit score in the U.S. is 715 as of September 2024, according to Experian [2][4] - Credit scores are crucial for determining interest rates on loans and creditworthiness [3][4] - The average credit score has plateaued since 2021, with a noted decline since mid-2023 due to rising student loan delinquencies [6] State and Demographic Analysis - States with the lowest average credit scores include Mississippi (680), Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, and Texas (690-695) [5] - The highest average credit scores are found in Minnesota (742) and Wisconsin (738), with other states like Washington, Vermont, and New Hampshire also above 735 [5] - Women have slightly lower average credit scores (704) compared to men (705), and older Americans tend to have higher credit scores due to longer credit histories [8]

Core Insights - U.S. consumers are expected to increasingly rely on credit cards for shopping during the Thanksgiving holiday season according to a survey conducted by TransUnion [1] Consumer Behavior - The survey indicates a shift in consumer behavior towards credit card usage for holiday shopping, reflecting a potential trend in spending habits [1]

Core Insights - The national average credit score in the U.S. is 715 as of September 2024, indicating a plateau since 2021 after a steady rise since 2011 [3][5] - Credit scores are crucial for determining interest rates on loans and creditworthiness, impacting financial decisions for consumers [2][3] - There are significant regional disparities in credit scores, with states like Mississippi and Louisiana averaging around 680, while Minnesota and Wisconsin have higher averages of 742 and 738, respectively [4][3] Credit Score Trends - The average credit score has remained stable at around 714 or 715 since 2021, following a consistent increase from approximately 689 in 2011 [5] - Recent data from FICO indicates a decline in average U.S. credit scores since mid-2023, attributed to rising student loan delinquencies as pandemic-related payment pauses ended [5] Regional and Demographic Variations - The lowest credit scores are found in Southern states, with Mississippi at 680 and other states like Alabama, Georgia, Louisiana, and Texas ranging from 690 to 695 [4] - The highest credit scores are in states like Minnesota and Wisconsin, with averages above 735 in Washington, Vermont, and New Hampshire [4] - Gender and generational differences exist, with women having slightly lower average credit scores than men and older Americans generally having higher scores due to longer credit histories [7]

Core Insights - The transition to blockchain-based identity verification empowers individuals by shifting control of personal data from corporations, aligning with the principles of Web3 [1][5] - The rise of AI has led to more sophisticated phishing attacks, necessitating advanced security measures beyond traditional methods [2][3] - The digital identity sector is increasingly relevant as identity theft cases are projected to reach record levels by 2025, with U.S. consumers losing over $27 billion to identity theft in the previous year [3][4] Company Overview - TransCrypts is a tech startup that leverages blockchain technology to provide a verification platform, allowing users to manage their own data and enhance security [5][6] - The company aims to disrupt the traditional credit reporting system by giving individuals control over their financial information, challenging established players like Equifax and TransUnion [7][10] - Recent funding will enable TransCrypts to expand its services beyond employment data to include health data and education records, enhancing its market potential [6][10] Market Potential - The credit bureau market is valued at nearly $125 billion in 2023 and is expected to exceed $385 billion by 2032, indicating significant growth opportunities for innovative solutions like TransCrypts [8] - The increasing importance of digital identity solutions is underscored by the need for real-time verification as AI technology advances [9] Competitive Landscape - Established companies in the credit reporting space are beginning to integrate blockchain technology, which may pose challenges for TransCrypts as it seeks to gain market share [11][10] - Monitoring trends in the digital identity sector is crucial for investors, as the success of TransCrypts could influence the broader industry landscape [12]

Third Quarter 2025 Earnings October 23, 2025 Chris Cartwright, President and CEO Todd Cello, CFO This presentation contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements are based on the current beliefs and expectations of TransUnion's management and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those described in the forward-looking statements. Factors that could cause TransUnion's actu ...

Core Insights - Equifax is launching new fraud prevention tools in response to increasing mortgage revenues and evolving fraud threats [2][3] Financial Performance - Equifax reported a 7% increase in overall revenue, with mortgage revenues specifically rising by 13% despite challenges in the U.S. hiring and mortgage markets [2] - Consumer lending revenue grew by 20% in the quarter, driven by strong performance in auto, personal loans, and card markets [5] Fraud Prevention Initiatives - The company is utilizing advanced AI capabilities to develop new fraud prevention tools, focusing on synthetic and first-party fraud [3] - A new synthetic identity model will analyze billions of non-traditional data points to detect "ghost identities" [3] - Equifax plans to introduce a first-party fraud model to identify behavioral patterns indicating credit taken out with no intention of repayment [3][4] AI Solutions - Equifax launched Equifax Ignite AI Advisor, a generative AI solution designed to help lenders analyze portfolio performance and identify growth opportunities [6] - The tool integrates lenders' internal data with Equifax's credit and risk analytics, allowing for natural language queries and visual dashboards [7]

Core Insights - Equifax (EFX) has gained in the S&P 500 after reducing prices for mortgage credit scores, responding to Fair Isaac's (FICO) recent strategy to decrease the mortgage industry's dependence on credit bureaus [1] - Fair Isaac (FICO) experienced a decline in early stock market performance, despite maintaining most of last week's gains [1] Company Actions - Equifax's price reduction for mortgage credit scores is a strategic move to enhance competitiveness in the mortgage market [1] - Fair Isaac's initiative appears to be aimed at reshaping the mortgage industry's reliance on credit reporting agencies [1] Market Performance - The S&P 500 index reached a record high, with companies like Western Digital and Coinbase also performing well during the week [2]

Core Insights - TransUnion's study indicates that Canadian businesses lost an estimated CAD$111 billion to fraud in the past year, representing 7.2% of their revenues, a significant increase from CAD$78 billion in 2024 [3][6] - Synthetic identity fraud has risen to 26% of total fraud losses, up from 18% in 2024, marking the largest year-over-year increase among fraud types in Canada [7][6] - Despite an overall decline in suspected digital fraud rates, online communities and gambling transactions have seen significant increases in fraud attempts, with online communities experiencing a 68% year-over-year increase [8][9] Fraud Losses and Trends - Scams and authorized fraud account for 29% of reported losses among Canadian businesses, while synthetic identity fraud is becoming increasingly prevalent [5][6] - The rate of suspected digital fraud attempts in Canada decreased from 5.4% in H1 2024 to 4.2% in H1 2025, although this rate remains higher than the global average [3][6] - Online communities had the highest suspected digital fraud attempt rate at 11.4%, followed closely by gambling at 10.9% [10][8] Business Leaders' Concerns - 48% of Canadian business leaders reported that their customers were victims of fraudsters spoofing their business' phone number or name, while 60% cited fake emails impersonating their brand [3][6] - There is a significant concern regarding spoofing scams, indicating a need for enhanced security measures [3][4] Fraud Mitigation Strategies - Canadian businesses are focusing on various technologies to combat fraud, including identity verification (53%), device reputation (46%), and behavioral biometrics (42%) [11][8] - The study emphasizes the importance of a collaborative approach and advanced tools to stay ahead of evolving fraud tactics [8][4] Consumer Awareness and Actions - A separate survey found that 46% of Canadians were targeted by fraud attempts, yet only 6% reported falling victim, indicating high awareness [12][13] - Despite this awareness, 37% of Canadians took no action in the last 60 days due to cybersecurity concerns, with many unsure of what steps to take [12][13]

Group 1: Berkshire Hathaway Acquisition - Berkshire Hathaway confirmed a nearly $10 billion acquisition of Occidental Petroleum's petrochemical division, marking its largest deal since 2022 [2] - Following the announcement, shares of Occidental Petroleum fell by 7.3%, while Berkshire Hathaway shares experienced fractional losses [2] Group 2: Fair Isaac and Credit Bureaus - Fair Isaac (FICO) shares surged by 18% after announcing it would provide consumer credit scores directly to firms selling consolidated credit reports to mortgage providers, reducing reliance on major credit bureaus [3][7] - Shares of competing credit bureaus, Equifax and TransUnion, dropped significantly, with Equifax down 8.5% and TransUnion nearly 11% [3] Group 3: Cryptocurrency Market - Major cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin, saw a revival, contributing to a 7.5% increase in shares of Coinbase Global, the largest U.S. crypto exchange [4] - Robinhood Markets, which also offers crypto trading, saw its shares rise by 4.1% as the CEO predicted significant impacts from the tokenization of real-world assets [4] Group 4: Intel and AMD - Intel shares gained 3.8% amid reports that Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is in early talks to become a customer of Intel's foundry business [5] - Intel's stock has doubled in value since reaching its year-to-date low in April, driven by investments from Nvidia, SoftBank, and the U.S. government [5] Group 5: AES Corp and Market Reactions - Shares of AES Corp, a renewable energy provider, fell by 7% after reports of advanced negotiations for a potential acquisition by Global Infrastructure Partners, owned by BlackRock [8]