4 December 2025 | 8:01PM EST Equity Research US Tactical Research: Identifying Laggards to Buy Heading into 2026 As investors begin to shift their focus towards positioning into the new year, we revisit the effects of the "Laggards" trade, where prior year's laggards have a tendency to become leaders in Q1 of the following year. This trend has held up in 14 of the 23 years since we started tracking the data in 2002, and in 1Q of 2025 laggards outperformed the SPX by +1.6% on average (53% hit rate) - a rever ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for Okta, indicating confidence in the company's potential for growth stabilization and execution on its go-to-market strategy [3][17]. Core Insights - Okta's 1QFY revenue was 1% above expectations, with a cRPO (current Remaining Performance Obligations) 2% above and EBIT margin approximately 200 basis points above [1]. - The company is experiencing a sequential decline in subscription revenue growth and cRPO, which has raised concerns about future performance [1][15]. - Despite these challenges, Okta is well-positioned to benefit from the increasing adoption of AI technologies among its customers, with initiatives like Auth for GenAI expected to enhance its offerings [3][15]. Financial Performance - For FY26, revenue guidance remains unchanged at $2,859 million, with EBIT margin guidance also maintained [1][17]. - The company reported a net revenue retention (NRR) rate of 106%, slightly down from 107% in the previous quarter, and is expected to remain within the 106-108% range for the remainder of FY26 [1][15]. - cRPO bookings grew 9% year-over-year, but this represents a 23% quarter-over-quarter decline, indicating volatility in forward subscription revenue [15]. Valuation Metrics - The adjusted 12-month price target for Okta is set at $137, based on a valuation of 25 times EV/uFCF [17]. - Key financial metrics include projected revenue growth rates of 15.3% for FY25, 9.5% for FY26, and 10.5% for FY27 [9]. - The report highlights a free cash flow yield of 4.9% for FY25, decreasing to 3.4% by FY26 [9]. Market Context - Okta's market capitalization is approximately $22.9 billion, with an enterprise value of $20.5 billion [4]. - The company is positioned within the Americas Emerging Software sector, ranking 3rd in M&A activity [4].