（来源：新华日报） □ 本报记者 许愿 实习生 陈泓霓 金价，又涨了！ 1月14日，现货黄金（伦敦金）强势拉涨，现货黄金价格冲破4640美元/盎司大关，创下历史纪录。Wind 数据显示，2026年以来，现货黄金价格已累计上涨超过7%。多家黄金珠宝品牌公布的境内足金首饰价 格同样延续近期涨势，普遍站上1430元/克高位。 事实上，黄金市场在2025年就已经展现出惊人的爆发力。伦敦现货黄金价格全年创下逾50次历史新高， 突破4550美元/盎司，年度累计涨幅一度超过70%，创下近46年来的最高单年涨幅。 在黄金价格高涨的环境下，市场销售端的情况如何？消费者和投资者是否仍然愿意"买买买"？ 1月12日，记者来到潮宏基南京华采天地店，店员介绍，金价暴涨导致实体店冷清了不少："大家都喜欢 买涨不买跌，除非是结婚、送礼这样的硬性需求，否则顾客都不太愿意出手了。"叠加行业竞争加剧， 顾客会反复对比不同品牌的价格、折扣，营业员销售难度陡增的同时，收入也直接受影响："金价600多 元/克的时候月入能过万元，现在明显降了。" 销售端的寒意也在宏观数据中得到印证。2025年11月10日，中国黄金协会发布的数据显示，2025年前三 季 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses a significant drop in gold prices in the domestic market, with certain brands experiencing record daily declines, leading to consumer debates on whether to buy at lower prices [3][4]. Price Drop and Market Reaction - Major brands like Chow Sang Sang and Lao Miao saw gold jewelry prices fall by 40-53 CNY per gram, with Chow Sang Sang's price dropping from 1406 CNY to 1353 CNY per gram [3]. - The price drop for a 36-gram gold bracelet translates to savings of approximately 1512-1908 CNY, aligning with reports of a 1500 CNY decrease [3]. - Store employees noted that such a drastic price drop was unprecedented, with some considering personal purchases [3]. International Price Influence - On December 29, the international precious metals market also experienced a sharp decline, with COMEX gold futures dropping by 4.45% and spot gold falling over 200 USD per ounce [4]. - Domestic gold jewelry prices adjusted in response to international market trends, with wholesale markets in Shenzhen also lowering their quotes [4]. Causes of the Price Drop - The immediate triggers for the price drop included profit-taking by institutions due to year-end assessments and the upcoming holiday, alongside policy adjustments from the CME that increased margin requirements for gold and silver futures [5]. - A reduction in liquidity during the holiday season contributed to market volatility [5]. - Long-term factors included a temporary easing of geopolitical risks and a rebound in the dollar, which increased the cost of gold priced in USD [6]. Consumer Sentiment and Market Division - Consumer reactions were polarized, with some purchasing gold for weddings at reduced costs, while others remained cautious, fearing further price declines [8]. - There was debate over whether the price drop constituted a true "crash," as it followed a nearly 70% increase in prices throughout the year [9]. - Concerns were raised about brand premiums on gold jewelry, which could diminish resale value due to included craftsmanship and branding costs [10]. Practical Recommendations - For consumers needing gold for weddings, it is suggested to opt for bank gold bars or local processing to save on premiums [11]. - Current gold holders are advised to avoid panic selling and to utilize official channels for resale [11]. - New investors are cautioned against high-risk leveraged trading in the short term, with recommendations for long-term investments in gold ETFs [11]. Institutional Perspectives - There is a notable divergence among institutions regarding future price movements, with some warning of potential technical corrections while others view the recent drop as a normal retracement after reaching new highs [12]. - High volatility persists, necessitating caution regarding liquidity risks [12]. Long-term Outlook - The long-term fundamentals supporting gold remain intact, including anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and ongoing global central bank gold purchases [13]. - Silver is expected to experience greater volatility due to its industrial demand and elastic characteristics [13].

Core Viewpoint - The release of the "Gold Old-for-New Business Service Specification" group standard marks a significant step towards the standardization, professionalism, and transparency of the gold old-for-new business in China's jewelry industry, addressing long-standing issues such as unclear pricing and inconsistent standards for gold testing [2][3]. Group 1: Background and Market Context - The "Gold Old-for-New Business Service Specification" is the first specialized service standard for the old-for-new business in China's gold and jewelry industry, filling a gap in existing standards [2]. - The consumption scale related to gold old-for-new has accounted for approximately 20% of the national gold jewelry consumption [3]. - The demand for gold old-for-new is increasing, driven by rising gold prices and the availability of diverse recycling channels, including online platforms and gold ATMs [3]. Group 2: Implications of the New Standard - The new standard aims to clarify the gold testing process, requiring full monitoring and customer presence, and mandates clear pricing and loss standards to eliminate pricing ambiguities [5]. - The specification includes requirements for staff training and equipment configuration, promoting a shift from a rough operational model to a more professional one, which is expected to reduce consumer disputes and enhance transaction confidence [5].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Consumer Sector - **Event**: Citi's 2025 China Conference - **Participants**: 44 China consumer companies were hosted, leading to the identification of five investment themes in the consumer sector [1][9] Investment Themes 1. **Shift Towards Experience Consumption**: - Consumers are increasingly valuing emotional experiences over physical goods, seeking happiness and self-expression through services [2] - Companies like Pop Mart provide affordable entertainment options that resonate with young consumers [2] 2. **Focus on Well-being**: - Younger generations are prioritizing spending on wellness, including health, fitness, and mindfulness [3] - Growth opportunities are seen in sectors like sportswear (Anta), health supplements (H&H), and beauty care (Giant Bio) [3] 3. **Rising Silver Economy**: - The aging population is driving demand for leisure and cultural experiences, benefiting industries like tourism (H World, Atour) and health supplements [4] 4. **Emerging New Channels**: - New offline channels such as membership stores and snack specialty chains are gaining traction, helping to offset declines in traditional distribution [5] 5. **Multi-brand Strategy**: - Companies are expanding their brand portfolios to meet diverse consumer demands, with a focus on easing channel inventory pressure [6] Company-Specific Insights Pop Mart (9992.HK) - **Sustainability of IP Operation**: Pop Mart is seen as a growth play due to its strong IP incubation capabilities. Concerns about growth sustainability are being addressed through new product launches [10] - **LABUBU Durability**: The company plans to enhance its LABUBU IP with new products and has postponed the launch of LABUBU 4.0 to 2026 [11] - **Overseas Expansion**: Plans to operate over 60 stores in the US by the end of 2025, with expansions into Canada and Mexico [13] Laopu Gold (6181.HK) - **Sales Growth Expectations**: Management expects high revenue growth in 2H25E driven by price adjustments and new store sales [16] - **Price Adjustment Strategy**: A recent price increase of over 25% aims to maintain a gross profit margin (GPM) of at least 40% [17] - **Store Expansion Plans**: Focus on expanding floor areas in existing malls rather than entering new ones [22] Haidilao International Holding Ltd (6862.HK) - **Recovery in Table-Turn**: Management anticipates positive momentum in table-turn rates due to seasonal factors and a low comp base [30] - **Operational Improvements**: Plans to terminate loss-making pilot programs to save on operational expenses [32] China Resources Beer (0291.HK) - **Sales Performance**: The company reported low single-digit year-over-year sales growth, outperforming peers [34] - **Margin Outlook**: Expected GPM improvement in 2H25E, with a target dividend payout ratio increase to ~60% in 2025E [36] Midea Group (0300.HK) - **Sales Growth Target**: Management maintains a target of ~10% sales growth for 2025, with a focus on air-conditioning sales recovery [40] - **Overseas Business Expansion**: Plans to increase overseas production to ~30% and grow sales in developed markets through M&A [41] Li Ning (2331.HK) - **Sales Guidance**: Maintained guidance for 2025 with expectations of flat sales and high single-digit net profit margin growth [48] Nongfu Spring (9633.HK) - **Sales Guidance**: Management reiterated a mid-teen percentage growth target for 2025, with limited impact from price wars in the beverage sector [51] Cosmetics Sector - **Mixed Performance**: Domestic brands like Mao Geping and Chicmax showed strong growth, while others lagged behind [56] - **Growth Strategies**: Companies are focusing on online sales growth and improving operational efficiency to enhance margins [57][59] Additional Insights - **Consumer Trends**: There is a notable shift towards experiential consumption and wellness, indicating a changing landscape in consumer preferences [2][3] - **Operational Strategies**: Companies are adopting multi-brand strategies and optimizing supply chains to enhance profitability and meet diverse consumer demands [6][14] This summary encapsulates the key insights and trends discussed during the conference, highlighting the evolving dynamics within the China consumer sector and specific company strategies.

Group 1 - Gold prices held around $4,000 an ounce after a weak start, influenced by China's decision to end a long-standing tax rebate for some retailers, which may impact demand in the precious metals market [1][2] - The new policy allows companies producing non-investment gold to offset only 6% of the VAT, down from 13%, affecting both jewelry and industrial applications [3] - Jewelry stocks in China experienced significant declines, with Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group Ltd. falling by as much as 12%, and Chow Sang Sang Holdings International Ltd. and Laopu Gold Co. also seeing drops of over 8% and 9% respectively [6] Group 2 - Despite a record surge in gold prices in October, prices have since dropped sharply, yet remain over 50% higher year-to-date, with ongoing demand from central banks and safe-haven investors expected to support prices [4] - Analysts predict that the tax changes will lead to price increases across the entire jewelry industry to manage cost pressures [6] - The overall sentiment in global gold markets may be negatively affected by the tax changes in China, the largest consumer of gold [5]

Core Insights - The article discusses the transformative impact of AI on the gold industry, highlighting a seminar focused on integrating AI into traditional gold business practices [1][3]. Group 1: AI Integration in the Gold Industry - AI is reshaping the gold industry by enhancing efficiency and innovation through the combination of data, algorithms, and computing power [3]. - The seminar featured industry experts who provided practical guidance on utilizing AI for design and sales in the gold sector [3][7]. - AI tools, such as the Tencent Yuanbao AI, are being utilized for various applications including search, image recognition, and voice interaction, demonstrating their relevance to the gold industry [3][5]. Group 2: Practical Applications of AI - The "AI Designer Prompt System" was introduced, emphasizing the importance of precise input for generating quality design proposals [4]. - A demonstration showed how AI can assist in 3D jewelry design, significantly reducing the design validation cycle by generating models for 3D printing [5]. - AI-generated sales scripts were showcased, illustrating how AI can create tailored sales pitches that resonate with customers [7]. Group 3: Training and Engagement - The seminar included interactive sessions where participants practiced AI applications in design and sales, highlighting the potential for AI to revolutionize the gold industry [7]. - Experts led attendees through the PROMPT framework, teaching them how to effectively communicate with AI for optimal results [7].

Market Overview - The market experienced narrow fluctuations in the morning, with the three major indices showing slight increases. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.08%, the Shenzhen Component increased by 0.16%, and the ChiNext Index gained 0.32% [1] Sector Performance - The virtual power plant concept stocks strengthened, with companies like Hengshi Technology, Jinzhi Technology, and Jicheng Electronics hitting the daily limit. Football concept stocks continued their strong performance, with Jinling Sports, Gongchuang Lawn, and Shuhua Sports also reaching the daily limit. Computing hardware stocks saw a resurgence, with Tianjin Pulin and Guanghe Technology hitting the daily limit, while Shenghong Technology surged over 9% to reach a new high [1] - Conversely, the consumer sector experienced a collective adjustment, with Mankalon dropping over 10% [1] Stock Movement - A total of 2029 stocks rose, with 54 hitting the daily limit, while 2876 stocks declined, with 6 hitting the daily limit. There were 16 stocks that experienced a "炸板" (a term indicating a stock hitting the limit and then falling back), resulting in a 31% limit-up rate [1]