Core Insights - The current government shutdown has significantly impacted the availability and quality of economic data, particularly for October and November, raising concerns about the health of the economy [2][4][6] - Despite the data challenges, indicators suggest that the labor market remains relatively stable, with low jobless claims and positive signals from other sources [5][6][8] - A notable decline in job growth is attributed to a slowdown in immigration, affecting labor supply rather than labor demand, which has implications for Federal Reserve policy [10][12][13] Economic Data Impact - The absence of data collection during the government shutdown means that key economic indicators for October, such as inflation and employment, will likely be unavailable [2][3] - The quality of November employment data is also in question due to its collection timing, which coincides with the Thanksgiving holiday [4][6] Labor Market Indicators - Brailio Labs' indicator for total non-farm payrolls has shown an upward trend, and nationwide jobless claims remain low, indicating a stable labor market [5][6] - Other labor market indicators, including job postings, continue to signal positive conditions despite the data collection issues [8][9] Labor Supply vs. Demand - The slowdown in job growth over the past six months is primarily linked to a decrease in labor supply due to reduced immigration, rather than a decline in labor demand [10][12] - The Federal Reserve faces challenges in addressing labor supply issues, as its tools are more effective in managing labor demand [13]

Core Insights - The government shutdown has led to a "data fog," causing reliance on private data sources to assess economic conditions [1] - The ADP National Employment Report indicates a surprising increase in private-sector employment for October [2] Employment Data - The ADP payroll report, based on anonymized data from over 26 million private-sector employees, provides a high-frequency view of the labor market [3][4] - In October, private-sector employment rose by 42,000 jobs, with a year-over-year pay increase of 4.5% [5] - The growth in employment was primarily driven by the education, health care, and trade, transportation, and utilities sectors [5] Job Losses and Sector Performance - For the third consecutive month, job losses occurred in professional business services, information, and leisure and hospitality sectors [6] - The breakdown of job changes by industry shows: - Goods-producing: 9,000 jobs - Service-providing: 33,000 jobs [9] - Regional job changes indicate: - Northeast: -12,000 - Midwest: 9,000 - South: 6,000 - West: 40,000 [10] Detailed Sector Analysis - Specific job changes by sector include: - Natural resources/mining: 7,000 - Construction: 5,000 - Manufacturing: -3,000 - Trade/transportation/utilities: 47,000 - Information: -17,000 - Financial activities: 11,000 - Professional/business services: -15,000 - Education/health services: 26,000 - Leisure/hospitality: -6,000 - Other services: -13,000 [11]

Core Insights - ADP has been reporting an average of 45,000 new private-sector jobs created each month [1] Group 1 - The average monthly job creation in the private sector is 45,000 according to ADP [1]