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高盛:投资者报告-信息技术投资需求激增
Goldman Sachs· 2025-04-22 05:42
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Attractive, with a strong appeal due to growth potential in IT and software sectors [5][9]. Core Insights - IT spending for digital transformation (DX) is booming, driven by the declining working-age population in Japan, which necessitates increased IT investment as a manpower substitute [9][24]. - The report highlights several investment themes, including cloud services (SaaS/data centers), Windows 10 upgrade demand, increased defense spending, and government digitalization initiatives [10][35][39]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report anticipates minimal direct impact from the increase in US tariffs on the industry [2]. - Cash flow levels at firms have risen significantly, indicating strong financial health [3]. - The working-age population decline is exacerbating labor shortages, prompting a greater focus on digitalization among management [7]. Investment Themes - Key investment themes include: - Cloud business (SaaS/data centers) [10]. - Demand for Windows 10 upgrades as support ends in October 2025 [38]. - Increased defense budget, projected to rise to approximately ¥43.5 trillion [39]. - Government initiatives for digital transformation in public administration [39]. Financial Performance - The report notes that valuations in the industry do not appear overheated, allowing for a focus on fundamentals and thematic stocks [9]. - The expected growth in IT spending is projected at a 5-year CAGR of 8% through 2028, with software investment growing at 10% and IT services at 7% [23][26]. Company Focus - Preferred stocks include: - OBIC Business Consultants (OBC), with a strong shift to cloud business and high recurring revenue [11][40]. - NTT Data, expected to see significant profit increases from its data center business [47]. - NEC, benefiting from the defense budget expansion and government digitization projects [51]. Market Trends - The report indicates that cloud spending in Japan is only 12% of total IT spending, compared to 37% globally, suggesting substantial growth potential [38]. - The overall IT spending in Japan is projected to reach ¥8,491 billion by 2025, reflecting a growth of 9.5% [33].