智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研报称，26年推理侧需求有望爆发，一级市场方面，编程场景、 Agent爆发为主要应用方向。从用户量和创业公司的收入估值水平来看，当前规模增长较快的行业以AI 编程、AI Agent、AI内容创作为主，聚焦生产力提升，今年以来诞生了多个爆款应用，明年办公场景有 望迎来更多产品落地。此外，该行认为随着模型能力的成熟，明年在端侧的AI手机、AI眼镜，以及协 助大模型在企业落地的分销商这些领域将看到明显的增长。 国信证券主要观点如下： 25年tokens消耗更多用于大模型企业内部以及推荐系统的重构，但26年开始预计下游应用的需求将持续 增加，AI实际上打开了软件需求的天花板，据IDC数据，预计2029年全球SaaS市场将达到近1万亿美元 规模(对比25年5800亿美元有明显增长)，但该行认为其中玩家将重新洗牌。拥有数据壁垒，主要在垂类 细分场景中布局，软件定义工作流程较复杂，或对准确度要求极高的行业，被大模型替代的风险较小， 复盘美股科技巨头过去三年股价走势，AI叙事不断递进 23年OpenAI领先全球开启AI加速度，微软受益于OpenAI独家合作，估值抬升明显。24年市场低估模型 进 ...

RockFlow 投研团队第一时间对这个数万字的系列报告进行了深度编译与逻辑重塑。我们剥离了繁杂的术语，为你精炼出决定未来十年投资格局的五大核心 叙事。Enjoy AI 基础设施与 Agent：从"交互工具"进化为"自主生命体" 划重点： 1）AI 正在从"数字助理"进化为"自主执行集群"。2026 年将见证 AI 从"对话工具"向"多智能体系统（Multi-Agent）"的跨越。a16z 预言屏幕时代 即将终结，Agent 原生基建将重定义云端速度，开启企业运营杠杆的历史性飞跃。 2）科技正在溢出屏幕，"比特"开始全面接管"原子"。电气化、材料科学与 AI 融合而成的"电子工业堆栈"将成为物理世界运行的底层逻辑。通过 软件定义制造与 AI 自动化，美国有望迎来工厂复兴的黄金时代。 3）SaaS 正经历从"被动记录"到"主动推理"的范式转移，个性化服务将实现从"为所有人优化"到"为每个人定制"的飞跃。加密货币将化身为互联 网的基础结算层，稳定币与 RWA 将重构金融底层；而预防性医疗将开启长效变现的新蓝海。 在美股市场，预见趋势的能力往往决定了 Alpha 的成色。作为硅谷风投界的"定海神针"，a16z（An ...

AvePoint, Inc. ( AVPT ) is a well positioned company in the data security industry, with good progress in its transition to SaaS and improved margins compared to previous years. Revenue growth comes primarily from usageI’m a Portfolio manager (flexible equity funds and private clients), fundamental equity research, macro and geopolitical strategy.Over 10 years across global markets, managing multi-asset strategies and equity portfolios at a European asset manager.I combine top-down macro, bottom-up stock se ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the dual nature of opportunities and challenges in the Malaysian market for Chinese companies venturing abroad, emphasizing the need to understand local business logic beyond the typical Chinese perspective [1][2] - Malaysia is positioned as a buffer zone amid the US-China trade war, attracting interest from major powers due to its industrial advantages and high-tech capabilities, making it a desirable partner for both China and the US [3][4][6][7] - The article highlights the importance of localizing business strategies for Chinese companies, as many have struggled due to a lack of understanding of local culture, user experience, and language [11][15][18] Group 2 - The article identifies key sectors with growth potential in Malaysia, including renewable energy, digital technology, healthcare, and elder care, suggesting that Chinese companies should align their offerings with local needs [19][30] - It points out that the service sector in Malaysia surpasses manufacturing, providing a fertile ground for digital industries to thrive [20] - The discussion includes the necessity for infrastructure development, such as charging stations for electric vehicles, to support the growth of new industries [20][22] Group 3 - The article emphasizes the need for Chinese companies to engage with local communities and integrate into the local ecosystem to avoid missing opportunities [30] - It also mentions that many Chinese enterprises view Malaysia merely as a production base to circumvent tariffs, which is not a sustainable approach [17][30] - The importance of government collaboration in implementing technological advancements and regulatory frameworks is highlighted as essential for successful market entry [28][29]

Group 1 - Mitek Systems (MITK) is transitioning from a perpetual license model to a Software as a Service (SaaS) model, which is causing some gross margin and sales pressures [2] - There are long-term expectations of declines in checks, indicating potential challenges in revenue generation during this transition [2] - The Valkyrie Trading Society is a team of analysts focused on high conviction and obscure developed market ideas, aiming for downside-limited and non-correlated returns in the current economic environment [2]

Group 1 - Mitek Systems (MITK) is transitioning from a perpetual license model to a Software as a Service (SaaS) model, which is causing some gross margin and sales pressures [2] - There are long-term expectations of declines in checks as part of this transition [2] - The Valkyrie Trading Society is a team of analysts focused on high conviction and obscure developed market ideas, aiming for downside-limited and non-correlated returns in the current economic environment [2] Group 2 - The Value Lab is an investment group that focuses on long-only value ideas, targeting a portfolio yield of about 4% [1] - The Value Lab has performed well over the last five years by engaging in international markets [1] - Members of The Value Lab receive real-time updates, 24/7 chat support, regular market news reports, feedback on stock ideas, monthly new trades, quarterly earnings write-ups, and daily macro opinions [2]

Oracle Earnings Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Oracle - **Quarter**: Recent earnings call discussing financial performance and strategic initiatives Key Financial Metrics - **Revenue**: Slightly below expectations by 0.76% - **SaaS Revenue**: Experienced growth despite overall revenue decline - **AI Subscription Rate**: Significant increase noted - **Pre-Tax Profit**: $2.7 billion, exceeding expectations due to the sale of Ampere business - **Gross Margin**: Remained stable, with a slight decline - **RPO (Remaining Performance Obligations)**: Increased by 15% to $523 billion, with a 12-month collection rate of approximately 10% [2][5][3] Revenue Guidance - **Annual Revenue Guidance**: Maintained at $67 billion, with expectations for improvement in FY2027 - **Cloudflare Investment**: Expanded to $12 billion, with annual guidance raised to $50 billion [2][5] Business Segment Performance - **OCI (Oracle Cloud Infrastructure)**: Revenue grew by 68% year-over-year, annualized revenue exceeding $16 billion, with a target of $18 billion [2][5] - **Data Center Expansion**: Accelerated rollout, increasing multi-cloud database regions from 34 to 45, with a target of 72 regions [2][5] - **GPU Revenue**: Increased by approximately 177% year-over-year [4][8] Debt and Financing - **Long-term Debt**: Increased to over $90 billion, while short-term debt slightly decreased [6] - **Debt Management**: Company management reassured that total debt would remain below $100 billion, utilizing diverse data center construction models to mitigate financial risks [3][6] Strategic Partnerships - **Collaboration with OpenAI**: Progressing as expected, with models running on OCI cloud [4][7] - **Partnerships with NVIDIA and AMD**: Enhanced flexibility in chip supply strategies, maintaining neutrality among suppliers [4][7] Market Performance - **U.S. Market Growth**: Revenue in the U.S. increased by 17% year-over-year, reaching approximately $10.1 billion [9] - **RPO Growth**: Increased by 15% quarter-over-quarter and 439% year-over-year, driven by partnerships with major companies [9] Profitability and Cost Management - **Data Center Gross Margin**: Stabilized around 68%, slightly below management's target of 30-40% [11] - **Operating Profit**: Slightly below expectations by 1.56 percentage points, while net profit was slightly better than expected [11] Future Focus Areas - **Profitability Improvement**: Aiming to optimize gross and profit margins while accelerating RPO realization [12] - **Data-Related Business Expansion**: Focus on enhancing traditional database capabilities and building a unified data platform [12] - **AI Model Deployment**: Plans to deploy numerous AI models through OCI to create a data-centric ecosystem [12] Cash Flow Situation - **Free Cash Flow**: Reported at negative $10 billion, significantly below market expectations [16] - **CAPEX Investment**: Increased by approximately $3 billion, with plans for a more flexible CAPEX model to alleviate cash flow pressure [16]

Industry Note December 8, 2025 Analysts Seth Basham, CFA (212) 938-9954 Seth.Basham@wedbush.com Scott Devitt (646) 604-4230 scott.devitt@wedbush.com Dan Ives (212) 344-2073 Dan.Ives@wedbush.com Matt Bryson (617) 695-6302 matthew.bryson@wedbush.com Alicia Reese 212-938-9927 Alicia.Reese@wedbush.com Antoine Legault, CFA, CPA (626) 497-1619 antoine.legault@wedbush.com Steven Wahrhaftig (212) 931-7059 steven.wahrhaftig@wedbush.com Matthew Weiss (212) 931-7096 matthew.weiss@wedbush.com Sam Brandeis (212) 833-658 ...

Summary of F5 Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: F5 Networks, Inc. - **Industry**: IT Hardware and Software, specifically focusing on application delivery and security solutions Key Points Security Breach and Customer Response - A sophisticated nation-state actor gained unauthorized access to F5 systems, affecting the BIG-IP product line [4][2] - Customers responded positively to F5's transparency and guidance on protecting their environments, with many quickly applying updates [6][5] - The company observed a significant initial uptick in customer updates, which has since stabilized to a "business as usual" state [7][6] - F5 is optimistic about emerging from the incident with a more secure environment for customers [7][6] Software Business Growth - F5's software growth is primarily driven by customer expansion and the adoption of the Advanced Application Services Platform (ADSP) [15][14] - The company experienced a 9% growth in FY 2023, with expectations for mid-single-digit growth in FY 2026 due to renewal cohort dynamics [16][17] - Strong growth is anticipated in the distributed cloud business, with expectations for double-digit growth beyond FY 2026 [18][17] Hardware Demand and Market Trends - There is a renewed demand for hardware driven by data center modernization and AI applications [19][20] - F5 is seeing a shift back towards data center investments, which may indicate a healthier market for hardware [33][34] - The refresh business is currently experiencing strong growth, with a cycle duration of approximately 2.5 to 3 years [34][35] Federal Business Outlook - F5's federal business is a small portion of overall revenue, and past government shutdowns have shown that demand typically rebounds once budgets are restored [36][37] Services Business Dynamics - The services business is stable and profitable, with a focus on meeting high customer expectations [39][40] - The growth of the services business is closely tied to product sales, particularly in the context of SaaS offerings [40][41] Security Solutions and Market Position - F5 is focusing on consolidating point solutions and enhancing analytics capabilities for application security [42][43] - Recent acquisitions, such as Calypso AI, are expected to strengthen F5's position in the emerging AI security market [43][42] Financial Performance and Margin Structure - F5 has a high gross margin business, with opportunities to improve operating margins through AI and automation [44][45] - The business model is designed to drive leverage over time, particularly as the mix of subscription revenue increases [45][44] AI Integration and Use Cases - F5 is actively engaging in AI-related use cases, including AI data delivery, runtime security, and load balancing for AI factories [24][25][26] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for AI infrastructure and security solutions [28][27] Additional Insights - The company is monitoring customer behavior closely, particularly regarding project deferrals or cancellations due to perceived risks from the security breach [10][11] - F5 is optimistic about the long-term growth potential in both software and hardware segments, driven by evolving customer needs and market dynamics [34][33]

Core Viewpoint - Citi maintains a Buy rating on Oracle (ORCL) but lowers the target price from $415 to $375, while still projecting a high return of 81% [2][8] Financial Projections - For FY2025, Oracle's EPS is projected at $6.42, with quarterly estimates of $1.39, $1.47, $1.86, and $1.70 [2][8] - FY2026 EPS is expected to be $6.80, with quarterly estimates of $1.47, $1.62, $1.72, and $1.98 [2][8] - FY2027 EPS is projected at $7.93, with quarterly estimates of $1.70, $1.89, $2.05, and $2.30 [2][8] - FY2028 EPS is expected to reach $10.65, with quarterly estimates of $2.15, $2.51, $2.79, and $3.21 [2][8] Market Sentiment and Risks - Investor sentiment has quickly deteriorated from a record Q1 and optimistic analyst day [3][9] - Concerns regarding Oracle's debt default risk are viewed as overstated, with rising CDS prices reflecting broader market hedging sentiment rather than fundamental deterioration [3][9] Capital Expenditure and Growth Expectations - Citi raises FY26 CapEx expectations to over $40 billion, compared to consensus of $35 billion, anticipating AI OCI capital expenditures to rise to an annual level of $60 billion to $70 billion in the coming years [5][11] - A VAR channel survey indicates mixed signals, with dealer quota attainment rising from 60% to 66%, but NTM growth expectations slowing by approximately 2.5 percentage points to around 2% [5][11] Valuation Adjustments - The target price reduction is primarily due to a compression in valuation multiples, decreasing from a previously implied higher multiple to 27.5x FY28E Non-GAAP EPS, reflecting market caution regarding profitability in a high CapEx environment [5][11] Key Data Point - Citi predicts that the remaining performance obligations (RPO) for F2Q will reach an astonishing $600 billion, exceeding consensus estimates by 20% [2][8]