Core Insights - The stock market is influenced by year-end tax loss harvesting and portfolio adjustments as the holiday season approaches [1][2] - Significant gains in the stock market have been driven by AI-related trades, with some investors considering profit-taking and tax strategies [2][6] Company Performance - Companies like Palantir (PLTR) and Robinhood (HOOD) have seen substantial year-to-date stock gains, while the worst performers in the S&P 500 are under scrutiny as investors look to mitigate losses [3][5] - The worst-performing stocks include names from various sectors such as consumer, industrial, and services, with examples like Lululemon (LULU), Dow (DOW), and Trade Desk (TTD) [5][6] Market Dynamics - The struggles of underperforming companies are attributed to execution issues, changes in customer demand, and cyclical factors rather than the rise of generative AI [6][7] - Despite the overall positive impact of AI on many companies, tax loss harvesting may increase selling pressure on underperformers, potentially exacerbating their declines [7][9]

Core Viewpoint - The credit markets are showing signs of stability, with only a slight widening of credit spreads, indicating that Wall Street may be less concerned than equity market shareholders about recent reports [1][2]. Credit Market Insights - The fixed income markets are perceived as reliable indicators of investor sentiment regarding bank balance sheets, suggesting a positive outlook for the financial services sector [2][3]. - Corporate bonds are still considered attractive, particularly high-quality and shorter-duration credits, despite the tightening spreads historically [4][5]. Earnings Season Analysis - Earnings reports across various sectors, including financial services and consumer goods, are expected to remain solid, with corporate executives indicating strong margins [7][8]. - Potential risks include trade policy changes and consumer spending patterns, which could impact margins and overall earnings [8][9]. Trade Policy Concerns - The possibility of additional tariffs on Chinese imports remains a concern, with hopes for a diplomatic resolution to avoid negative impacts on businesses [10][11]. - Companies are seeking clarity on trade rules to adapt their strategies effectively, as uncertainty hampers decision-making [12]. Inflation and Federal Reserve Outlook - The upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is crucial, with expectations of a 3% year-over-year increase, which may influence Federal Reserve policy [14][16]. - The Fed is likely to remain vigilant regarding inflation while also considering labor market conditions in their decision-making process [15][16].

Economic Resilience and Inflation - The economy has shown more resilience than expected, with companies reporting stable conditions during the second quarter [2] - Anticipation of the Federal Reserve's actions in September is noted, with a focus on small-cap performance [3] Small-Cap Market Performance - Small caps have outperformed by approximately 400 to 500 basis points since April 8, largely unrecognized in the broader market [4] - Relative valuations for small caps remain cheaper compared to large caps, with small caps yet to reach new highs since November 2021 [5] Earnings Outlook - Small cap earnings turned positive in the second quarter after two years of negative performance, which is crucial for continued outperformance [6] - Expectations are that small cap earnings may outperform large cap earnings in the third quarter [6] Impact of Interest Rates - A lower interest rate environment would benefit small cap companies, particularly those with variable debt [7] - The anticipation of lower rates is already being factored into the small cap market [7] Capital Expenditure Cycle - The recent legislation allowing 100% depreciation on capital expenditures may signal the start of a capex cycle that benefits small cap companies [8] Focus on Industrial Sector - The focus is on economically sensitive areas, particularly industrials, which are expected to benefit from reshoring and re-industrialization in the U.S. [10][11] Historical Context of Small Caps - The Russell 2000's representation as a percentage of the Russell 3000 was 4.2% at the end of the second quarter, a level not seen since the 1980s [12] AI and Market Broadening - The AI narrative is shifting towards beneficiaries of AI, which may drive broader market participation beyond large caps [14]

Core Insights - Bunge Global SA (BG) is set to report its second-quarter 2025 results on July 30, with expected sales of $11.4 billion, reflecting a 14.2% decline year-over-year [1] - The consensus estimate for earnings per share is $1.19, indicating a significant year-over-year drop of 31.2% [1] - Earnings estimates have remained unchanged over the past 30 days [1] Financial Performance Expectations - The Agribusiness segment is projected to generate revenues of $7.75 billion, down 19.7% from $9.66 billion in the prior year [6] - The adjusted EBIT for the Agribusiness segment is expected to be $202 million, a 32% decrease from the previous year [7] - The Refined and Specialty Oils segment is anticipated to report revenues of $3.18 billion, showing a slight growth of 1.8% year-over-year, but with a 28.2% drop in operating income [8] - The Milling segment's revenues are estimated at $419 million, reflecting a 4.5% increase from the year-ago period [9] Earnings Surprise History - Bunge's earnings have exceeded consensus estimates in two of the last four quarters, with an average surprise of 9.2% [2][3] Stock Performance - Bunge's stock has declined by 29.7% over the past year, compared to an 11.5% decline in the industry [11]

Trade Relations - Thailand is attempting to avoid a 36% export levy [1] - Thailand is offering greater market access for US farm and industrial goods [1]

Core Viewpoint - Philippe Laffont of Coatue Management has invested significantly in Philip Morris International, indicating the company's potential as a growth stock within the defensive tobacco industry [1][3][17] Investment Details - Laffont purchased over $220 million worth of Philip Morris stock in Q1, marking it as his fourth-largest purchase and second-largest new addition [3] - This investment is notable given Laffont's typical focus on technology stocks, which include major companies like Meta Platforms and Amazon [2] Growth Drivers - Philip Morris is experiencing growth through its smokeless products, particularly Zyn and Iqos, which are appealing alternatives to traditional tobacco [5][8] - Zyn's U.S. shipment volumes surged 53% to 202 million cans in Q1, prompting an increase in full-year shipment guidance to between 800 million and 840 million cans [7] - Iqos has also seen a nearly 12% increase in heated tobacco units (HTUs) to 37.1 billion units, with strong sales growth in Japan and Europe [9] Market Position - Philip Morris has successfully bought back Iqos' U.S. rights and is preparing for a broader rollout in the U.S. market, which could enhance growth without cannibalizing existing customers [10] - The company has managed to produce modest cigarette volume growth internationally, contrasting with the steep decline seen in the U.S. market [12][13] Financial Metrics - Zyn and Iqos have better unit economics compared to traditional cigarettes, with Zyn offering six times better product contribution levels and Iqos providing 2 to 2.5 times [11] - The stock is currently trading at a forward P/E ratio of under 23 and a PEG ratio of under 0.35, suggesting it is undervalued [15] Conclusion - Given its defensive nature, growth potential, and attractive valuation, Philip Morris is viewed as a favorable investment opportunity [14][17]