Core Viewpoint - The article discusses stocks categorized into "Naughty" and "Nice" lists based on the pricing of their options, highlighting those with inflated premiums to avoid and those with attractive pricing to consider for buying options. Naughty List - Stocks on the Naughty List have options prices that are significantly inflated, making them risky for trading calls or puts due to high premiums [2] - Oracle Corp. (NYSE:ORCL) has seen its implied volatility rise from 24 to 64, indicating overpriced options ahead of earnings [4] - Lululemon athletica Inc. (NASDAQ:LULU) shows options priced above normal, making it difficult to justify long calls or puts [5] - Paychex Inc. (NASDAQ:PAYX) has inflated options that do not align with its consistent performance, stacking odds against buyers [7] - Ciena Corp. (NYSE:CIEN) has overpriced options despite solid stock movement, making it a red flag for potential buyers [8] - FactSet Research Systems Inc. (NYSE:FDS) has options trading at rich premiums, affecting the risk-reward balance for traders [10] Nice List - Stocks on the Nice List have options trading at or near their lowest levels of the year, providing opportunities for buying time premium without overpaying [11] - Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE:UBER) has seen its implied volatility drop from 80 to 30, making it an attractive option for bullish plays [12] - Rubrik Inc. (NYSE:RBRK) is trading at the bottom of its implied volatility range, presenting a good opportunity for call buying [13] - Tempus AI Inc. (NASDAQ:TEM) is also at low option premium levels, making it a smart choice for potential moves [14] - Ross Stores Inc. (NASDAQ:ROST) has equal high and low volatility levels, indicating a new low in options pricing, which could be favorable for long calls [15] - Ventas Inc. (NYSE:VTR) has dropped premiums near year-lows, making it an attractive option for buyers if a catalyst appears [16]

Investment Rating - Industry view is rated as "In-Line" [6] - Specific company view is rated as "Attractive" [15] Core Insights - Demand for Temu continues to decline, with household purchases at a record low and purchase expectations trailing competitors [2][4] - The removal of the de minimis exemption and high China tariff rates have significantly impacted engagement with Temu [2] - Dollar Stores are expected to benefit from Temu's market share loss, with a hypothetical 30% decline in US sales potentially representing ~$5 billion in market share being transferred to Dollar Stores and other retailers [2] - Temu's US GMV is projected to compound over the next several years, reaching approximately $39 billion by 2030, with profitability expected in 2025 [2] Summary by Sections Consumer Survey Data - Approximately 18% of respondents reported shopping on Temu in the past three months, marking a record low since the survey began in September 2023 [4][9] - Net purchase frequency expectations for Temu are at -25% in June 2025, the lowest among tracked retailers [12] - Web traffic and visitor trends for Temu have shown a significant drop, with traffic down 81% and visitors down 78% compared to March [16] App Performance - Temu app downloads and monthly active users (MAUs) have continued to decline, with downloads down 85% year-over-year and MAUs at approximately 49% of peak levels [17][20] Competitive Landscape - Shopper overlap ratios for Dollar Stores have declined, indicating that Temu's competitive threat is waning [21] - BURL and TJX have seen increases in customer overlap with Temu, while ROST has experienced a decline, suggesting a shift in market dynamics [24][27]