[Table_StockNameRptType] 拼多多（PDD） 公司点评 25Q3 业绩：利润超预期，国际业务回暖 | 投资评级：增持（维持） [Table_Rank] | | --- | | 报告日期： 2025-11-27 | | [收盘价（ Table_BaseData] 美元） 115.80 | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（美元） 157.6/88.4 | | 总股本（百万股） 5,679 | | 流通股本（百万股） 5,679 | | 流通股比例（%） 100 | | 总市值（亿美元） 1,644 | | 流通市值（亿美元） 1,644 | [公司价格与 Table_Chart]纳斯达克指数走势比较 [Table_Author] 分析师：金荣 -20% 30% 80% 24/08 24/11 25/02 25/05 25/08 纳斯达克 拼多多 -20% 30% 24/11 25/02 25/05 25/08 25/11 纳斯达克 拼多多 执业证书号：S0010521080002 邮箱：jinrong@hazq.com [Table_Author] 分析师：赵亮 2）分部业务方面：在线营销业务 ...

Group 1: Pinduoduo (PDD) Analysis - Pinduoduo's Q3 revenue reached RMB 108.276 billion, a year-on-year increase of 9%, aligning with market expectations[8] - Online marketing services revenue was RMB 53.348 billion, up 8% YoY, while transaction services revenue was RMB 54.929 billion, up 10% YoY, indicating a deepening commercial model[8] - The company maintained a net profit of RMB 29.328 billion, a 17% increase YoY, with a net profit margin of 27.1%[8] - Target price for Pinduoduo is set at USD 148.90, reflecting a 31% upside potential from the current price of USD 113.24[11] Group 2: Xiaomi Group (1810) Analysis - Xiaomi's Q3 smartphone revenue was RMB 45.97 billion, a decline of 3.1% YoY, with global smartphone shipments at 43.3 million units, a 0.5% increase YoY[16] - The automotive business achieved revenue of RMB 29.01 billion, with a gross margin of 25.5%, marking the first quarterly profit of RMB 700 million[18] - Xiaomi's IoT revenue increased by 5.6% YoY to RMB 27.6 billion, with a gross margin of 23.9%[17] - Target price for Xiaomi is set at HKD 50.20, indicating a potential upside of 31.83% from the current price of HKD 38.08[22]

19 November 2025 PDD Holdings (PDD US) Buy: Competition challenges domestic market growth Investing for long-term growth: 3Q25 revenue met expectations as the domestic segment was weaker on keener competition (exhibits 8) but overseas recovery beat on improved Temu performance. We trim domestic growth assumptions on intensified competition with peers' hefty investment into quick e-commerce despite continuing to expect a reduced government subsidy effect in 2026. We lift expected contributions from transacti ...

Key Points PDD Holdings is the owner of Pinduoduo and Temu. The company's revenue growth is slowing, while at the same time profit margins are compressing. Shares of the stock look cheap after this drawdown, but it doesn't come without risks. 10 stocks we like better than PDD Holdings › Shares of PDD Holdings (NASDAQ: PDD) fell 13.6% this week, according to data from S&P Global Market Intelligence. A Chinese technology giant that owns the e-commerce website Temu and its homegrown Pinduoduo online ...

拼多多 PDD.O 公司研究 | 季报点评 外部负向影响减弱，基本面边际向好 ——拼多多 25Q3 季报点评 核心观点 盈利预测与投资建议 ⚫ 我们预计公司 2025-2027 年实现收入 4349/5045/5536 亿元（原 2025-2027 年预测为 4477/4980/5401亿元），预计实现Non-GAAP归母净利润1168/1436/1688亿元（原 2025-2027 年预测为 1220/1469/1612 亿元）。采用 SOTP 估值计算公司合理估值为 2544 亿 USD（18031 亿 CNY），给予拼多多目标价 179.21 美元/ADS，维持"买 入"评级。 风险提示：行业竞争加剧、海外业务政策风险、宏观经济不景气。 公司主要财务信息 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 247,639 | 393,836 | 434,885 | 504,513 | 553,555 | | 同比增长 (%) | 90% | 59% | 10% | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pinduoduo (PDD) [2][12] Core Insights - Pinduoduo reported FY3Q25 revenue of RMB 108.3 billion, a 9% year-over-year increase, exceeding consensus estimates of RMB 107.6 billion. Non-GAAP net profit increased by 14% year-over-year to RMB 31.4 billion, surpassing market expectations [5][6][12] - The "RMB 100 billion Merchant Support" program is driving transformation and high-quality development within the ecosystem, with significant growth in the number of young merchants and high-quality product SKUs [7][10][12] - The company is focusing on cost control, with total operating expenses accounting for 33.6% of revenue, down 2.0 percentage points year-over-year. R&D expenditure increased significantly, indicating a commitment to technological advancement [8][10][12] - Temu, a subsidiary, is experiencing strong growth in active users and market popularity, with cumulative global downloads exceeding 1.2 billion and a record high of 530 million monthly active users in August 2025 [11][12] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Pinduoduo are as follows: - 2023: RMB 247.639 billion - 2024: RMB 393.836 billion - 2025E: RMB 431.367 billion - 2026E: RMB 494.010 billion - 2027E: RMB 561.012 billion - Non-GAAP net profit forecasts have been adjusted to: - 2025E: RMB 109.029 billion (up from RMB 102.4 billion) - 2026E: RMB 128.155 billion (down from RMB 138.6 billion) - 2027E: RMB 155.770 billion (down from RMB 168.9 billion) [4][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of 108.3 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 9% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 4%, slightly above Bloomberg consensus expectations [6][12] - Non-GAAP net profit for Q3 2025 was 31.4 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 14%, significantly exceeding Bloomberg consensus expectations of 25.1 billion yuan [6][12] - The management indicated a commitment to increasing merchant investments to support long-term high-quality development, which may lead to fluctuations in profitability [8][11] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - Q3 2025 revenue reached 108.3 billion yuan (YoY +9%, QoQ +4%); gross profit was 61.4 billion yuan (YoY +3%, QoQ +6%); operating profit was 25 billion yuan (YoY +3%, QoQ -3%); net profit was 29.3 billion yuan (YoY +17%, QoQ -5%); Non-GAAP net profit was 31.4 billion yuan (YoY +14%, QoQ -4%) [6][12][19] Revenue Breakdown - Online market services and other revenue grew by 8% to 53.3 billion yuan; transaction commission revenue increased by 10% to 54.9 billion yuan [8] - Advertising revenue growth has slowed, attributed to intense competition in the e-commerce sector and proactive upgrades to platform ecosystem [8] Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 430.6 billion yuan, 498.2 billion yuan, and 568.5 billion yuan respectively, with Non-GAAP net profit estimates of 115.1 billion yuan, 137.4 billion yuan, and 161.6 billion yuan [11][19] - The company is expected to maintain a competitive edge in the domestic e-commerce market, supported by strategic investments in merchant and consumer ecosystems [11][19] Valuation - The target market capitalization for 2026 is estimated at 1,489.1 billion yuan, corresponding to a target price of 148 USD per ADS [11][22]

Core Viewpoint - Pinduoduo's Q3 financial results indicate a slowdown in growth, particularly in advertising revenue, which has dropped to single-digit growth for the first time, raising concerns about the company's future performance [2][5][6]. Financial Performance - In Q3, Pinduoduo reported revenue of 108.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9%, slightly above market expectations and better than the previous quarter's 7% growth [3]. - Operating profit for the quarter was 27.1 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of only 1% [3]. - Following the earnings report, Pinduoduo's stock price fell over 7%, marking its worst single-day performance since the release of Q1 results [4]. Advertising Revenue - Pinduoduo's advertising revenue for the quarter was 53.3 billion yuan, missing expectations by 2.1 billion yuan and showing only an 8% year-on-year increase [5]. - This marks the first time Pinduoduo's advertising revenue growth has fallen to single digits, contrasting with Alibaba's 10% growth in customer management revenue for Q2 [6][7]. Reasons for Slowdown - The management team attributed the slowdown to increased competition and the unsustainability of high growth rates as the platform scales [8]. - Analysts suggest that the decline in advertising revenue may be due to a slowdown in GMV growth, which was only 9% in Q3, slightly above the industry average [9]. - Increased competition from platforms like Douyin and the impact of the instant retail battle are also seen as contributing factors [9]. Marketing Expenses and Subsidies - Pinduoduo's marketing expenses decreased by 0.5% year-on-year to 30.3 billion yuan, which was 2.6 billion yuan less than market expectations, as national subsidies have lessened [12]. - The reduction in subsidies has alleviated some financial pressure on Pinduoduo, allowing for a potential recovery in operating profit [12]. International Expansion - Pinduoduo's commission revenue reached 54.9 billion yuan in Q3, a 10% year-on-year increase, driven by clearer tariff policies and the expansion of Temu in international markets [14]. - Temu has seen significant growth, leading in global e-commerce app downloads and monthly active users, with a total download count exceeding 1.2 billion [15]. - However, international expansion poses challenges due to varying compliance requirements across countries and logistical issues in Latin America [16]. Future Outlook - Temu is expected to achieve breakeven in the first half of 2026 and potentially turn a profit in the second half, which could signal a new phase of profitability for Pinduoduo [17].

Core Viewpoint - Nomura's research indicates that Pinduoduo's (PDD.US) overseas business may have recovered, particularly through its Temu platform's strategic adjustments and expansion efforts [1] Group 1: Business Strategy - Following the U.S. government's termination of the small exemption in May, Temu has altered its strategy by increasing recruitment of local sellers in the U.S. [1] - Temu is also rapidly expanding into markets outside the U.S., contributing to its business recovery [1] Group 2: Analyst Rating - Nomura maintains a neutral rating on Pinduoduo's ADR with a target price set at $136 [1]

Key Points An analyst downgraded his recommendation on the Chinese ecommerce company. He now feels it's a hold at the current price. 10 stocks we like better than PDD Holdings › The fallout continued for PDD Holdings (NASDAQ: PDD) on Wednesday. One day after reporting earnings that disappointed many investors, the Chinese e-commerce giant's American Depositary Shares (ADSes) took a hit, falling by more than 1% that trading session. That wasn't surprising, considering that an analyst downgraded his ...