Summary of Zhejiang Supcon Technology Co. (688777.SS) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Zhejiang Supcon Technology Co. - **Ticker**: 688777.SS - **Market Cap**: Rmb42.1 billion / $5.9 billion - **Industry**: Process Automation (PA) and Industrial AI Key Takeaways Industry and Market Position - Supcon is the leading supplier of Distributed Control Systems (DCS) in China, holding the No.1 market share in 2024, competing with global peers like Emerson, Honeywell, and Yokogawa, as well as domestic competitors like Hollysys [6][7] - The company derives 57% of its total sales from the (petro)chemicals industry, which is currently facing a challenging capital expenditure (capex) outlook [6][7] Transition to Industrial AI - Supcon is actively transitioning to an industrial AI company, focusing on scaling up investments in AI, including R&D, product development, and sales [1][2] - The transition is expected to take 3 to 5 years, with a shift towards subscription-based software and AI products [2][6] Product Innovations - **TPT 2.0**: Launched in late August 2025, this SaaS platform has seen user growth of approximately 100 new users per day. It features a Mixture of Experts (MoE) architecture aimed at optimizing production processes and ensuring safety [4] - **Robotics Solutions**: Supcon showcased various robotics solutions, including inspection and quadruped robots. In the first half of 2025, robotics solutions generated Rmb110 million in sales, accounting for 3% of total sales, with a gross profit margin of 12% [4] Financial Performance and Outlook - The financial performance in the near term is expected to remain under pressure due to the weak domestic chemicals capex outlook [2][6] - The company plans to start charging subscription fees for TPT 2.0 after 2 to 3 months post-launch, although many customers are still accustomed to one-off sales models [4] Investment Thesis and Risks - The investment thesis holds a neutral view on Supcon's stock due to the domestic chemicals capex weakness, despite the company's strong market position and new initiatives [6][7] - The 12-month price target is set at Rmb40.4, representing a downside of 24.1% from the current price of Rmb53.20 [8] - Key risks include contributions from new initiatives, progress in overseas expansion, and potential gains in the domestic DCS market share [7] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the upcoming years are as follows: - 2024: Rmb9,138.5 million - 2025E: Rmb8,404.9 million - 2026E: Rmb9,125.3 million - 2027E: Rmb10,128.3 million [8] Additional Insights - The company is increasing its allocation of resources towards AI applications, indicating a strategic pivot in its business model [1] - The robotics segment, while currently small, shows potential for growth as the company continues to innovate and expand its offerings [4] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding Zhejiang Supcon Technology Co., highlighting its strategic direction, market challenges, and financial outlook.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **AIDC (Automated Identification and Data Capture) supply chain** and its outlook for 2H25-2027E, highlighting significant growth opportunities and challenges within the sector [1][2][20]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Buoyant Outlook in AIDC Supply Chain**: - The AIDC supply chain is expected to experience robust growth, particularly in the second half of 2025 and into 2026-2027, driven by rising overseas opportunities [1][2]. - Envicool reported a **+216% year-over-year growth** in server cooling and other sales in 1H25, indicating strong demand for its liquid cooling products [2][5]. 2. **Challenges in Process Automation**: - Significant downside surprises were noted in the process automation sector, with Baosight and Supcon reporting revenue declines of **-35%** and **-14%** respectively in 2Q25 compared to Goldman Sachs estimates [1][12]. - The decline is attributed to supply-demand imbalances and capacity contractions in the domestic steel and petrochemical industries [12]. 3. **Company Ratings Adjustments**: - Han's Laser was upgraded to a **Buy** rating due to strong demand for PCB equipment, while Supcon and Baosight were downgraded to **Neutral** and **Sell** respectively [1][7]. 4. **Global Market Expansion**: - Envicool is expanding its presence in Southeast Asia and the U.S., with plans to capture **5%** of the global server liquid cooling market by 2027E and **10%** by 2030E [5][2]. - Kstar and Kehua are also benefiting from solid data center capacity demand growth in China and are expanding globally [6]. 5. **Humanoid Robots Market**: - LeaderDrive reported approximately **Rmb50 million** in humanoid robot revenue in 1H25, indicating a strong market position [8]. - Sanhua is optimistic about the long-term potential of humanoid robots, with its Thailand factory set for volume production in 3Q25 [9]. 6. **Industrial Automation Sector**: - The industrial automation demand is forecasted to decline by **-1% to -3%** year-over-year from 2025 to 2027, with mixed performance across companies [12]. - Inovance showed a positive outlook for 2H25, while Yiheda expressed concerns over lower consumer electronics capex demand [12]. 7. **Defensive Sector Performance**: - NARI Tech reported a **139% year-over-year growth** in overseas revenue in 1H25, indicating strong performance in the smart grid investment sector [14]. - AVIC Jonhon is expected to benefit from stable growth in aerospace and defense, with a solid outlook for liquid cooling contributions [15]. Additional Important Insights - The stock prices of key players in the AIDC supply chain have seen significant increases, with Envicool up **99%**, Kstar **60%**, and Han's Laser **30%** as of August 2025 [7]. - The overall performance of companies in the sector was largely in line with expectations, with average revenue growth of **0%** and net income down **-3%** compared to Goldman Sachs estimates [17]. - The conference highlighted the importance of adapting to market changes and the potential for new technologies to drive future growth in various sectors [20][22]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the AIDC supply chain and related industries.

Financial Performance - Order growth increased by 5% year-over-year, and revenue growth increased by 3% year-over-year[11] - Operational EBITA margin reached 20.2%, including a ~170 bps impact from real estate gain[11] - Free cash flow was $652 million, an increase of $101 million year-over-year, supported by proceeds from the sale of real estate of approximately $100 million[11] - A new share buyback program of up to $1.5 billion was initiated, with 16,715,684 shares repurchased for approximately $0.9 billion under the previous program[9] Sustainability Highlights - Scope 1 and 2 GHG emissions reduced by 78% compared to the 2019 baseline[13] - Scope 3 CO₂e emissions reduced by 8% compared to the 2022 baseline, with a target to reduce by 25% by 2030[13] - Customer GHG emissions avoided amounted to 66 million metric tons throughout the lifetime of products sold in 2024[13] Regional Performance - The Americas saw an order increase of 11%, with the USA up by 9%, Canada by 20%, and Brazil by 82%[23] - Europe experienced an order increase of 1%, with Germany down by 4% and Italy up by 47%, and the United Kingdom up by 27%[23] - AMEA saw an order increase of 4%, with China up by 13% and the United Arab Emirates up by 29%[23] Electrification Segment - Orders for Electrification reached $4,394 million, with revenues at $3,825 million[32] - Operational EBITA for Electrification was $886 million, a 7% year-over-year increase[32] - The Electrification backlog was $8.2 billion[34] Robotics Division Spin-Off - The Robotics division, with approximately $2.3 billion in revenues, is planned to be spun off as a separately listed company in the second quarter of 2026[66, 65]