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September 19, 2025 01:45 PM GMT We see leading hardware makers with scalable product sales like Horizon (9660.HK, OW) and Hesai (HSAI.O, OW) benefitting from accelerating configuration upgrades amid the race, while robotaxi makers like WeRide (WRD.O, OW) push into new international markets. For further details, see "From Horsepower to Brainpower – AI Takes the Wheel". | M September 19, 2025 01:45 PM GMT China Autos & Shared Mobility Asia Pacific Robotaxi – There's Strength in Numbers | Morgan Stanley Asia L ...

Summary of Tesla Inc Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Tesla Inc - **Industry**: Automotive, specifically Electric Vehicles (EVs) - **Market Cap**: $1,170,279 million as of July 23, 2025 - **Stock Rating**: Overweight - **Price Target**: $410.00 Key Financial Highlights - **2Q Results**: Slight beat with Free Cash Flow (FCF) near break-even [1][2] - **Deliveries**: FY25 deliveries forecast lowered to 1.53 million, down 14.2% year-over-year [8] - **Revenue**: FY25 revenue forecast largely unchanged at $63.4 billion [8] - **Auto Gross Margin**: FY25 Auto Gross Margin (ex-ZEV credits) increased to 13.4% [8] - **Operating Margin**: FY25 GAAP Operating Margin decreased to 2.9% [8] - **EPS**: FY25 Non-GAAP diluted EPS decreased to $1.37 from $1.58 previously [8] - **Free Cash Flow**: FY25 forecasted at ~$1 billion, up from a previous burn of ~$250 million [8] Core Insights and Concerns - **Outlook Transparency**: Tesla's outlook lacks specific targets on revenues or margins, raising concerns about future performance [6] - **Robotaxi Progress**: Limited information on the current fleet size or performance, despite ambitious expansion targets [6] - **Optimus Production**: Production ramp for Optimus pushed slightly, with a target of 1 million units annually within 5 years [6] - **Market Headwinds**: Elon Musk indicated that the next few quarters may be 'rough' due to demand changes and regulatory environment [6] - **Consensus Direction**: Likely modestly lower, especially for FY26, with updated FY25 EPS 14% lower than prior forecasts [6] Changes to Estimates - **Deliveries**: FY26 deliveries forecast lowered to 1.85 million from 1.89 million [8] - **Revenue Adjustments**: FY26 revenues slightly lower due to lower deliveries [8] - **Operating Expenses**: Increased R&D and SG&A expenses impacting margins [8] - **Free Cash Flow**: FY26 forecast lowered to $2.4 billion from $5.3 billion [8] Valuation and Price Target Methodology - **Price Target Components**: - Core Tesla Auto business valued at $76/share - Network Services at $159/share - Tesla Mobility at $90/share - Energy at $68/share - Third-party supplier at $17/share [19][24] Investment Thesis - **Growth Potential**: Tesla's capabilities in physical AI, robotics, and energy storage present significant growth opportunities beyond traditional EV business [12][13] - **Market Position**: Tesla is well-positioned in data, robotics, and manufacturing, with a strong competitive edge [12][13] - **Risk Factors**: Potential risks include competition from traditional OEMs and execution risks related to factory ramps and market recognition of service opportunities [36] Additional Insights - **Analyst Sentiment**: The consensus rating distribution shows 44% Overweight, 37% Equal-weight, and 19% Underweight [27] - **Long-term Projections**: Forecasts suggest Tesla could sell 4.6 million units by 2030 with a 25% revenue CAGR [26] This summary encapsulates the key points from Tesla Inc's earnings call, highlighting financial performance, strategic insights, and market outlook.