Chris Tumi with Morgan Stanley Private Wealth joins us here at Post9. Nice to see you. >> Nice to see you.>> Do you have high hopes for 26 and and strong returns like this year. >> We do. We do expect it to be a good year next year.>> You do. Why so. What's going to carry it.>> I mean, I look I think there's a lot of secular tailwinds. You talked about it earlier on the show. You've got a situation where earnings look very promising. You've got breath improving.You're in a situation where you actually have ...

The red-hot trade backing artificial intelligence-related stocks has taken a bruising from a disappointing report from Oracle, reigniting concerns about frothy valuations and an AI bubble. ...

A long run of dominance from U.S. stocks could be ending.U.S. stocks have done very well for the past 15 years. According to research by Dodge & Cox, U.S. stocks outperformed international stocks by over 500% from 2010 through last year.Yes, the United States is an economic juggernaut and a pillar of the world's economy. That said, the U.S. stock market is near its highest valuation on record, leaving a significant valuation gap between U.S. and international stocks.But investing in non-U.S. companies isn't ...

Core Insights - The technology sector is experiencing significant growth, primarily driven by advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) [1] - Investing in a technology exchange-traded fund (ETF) allows for diversified exposure to leading tech companies without the need to pick individual winners [2] Investment Strategy - The Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT) offers investment across 300 small- and large-cap technology companies, tracking the MSCI US Investable Market Information Technology 25/50 Index [3] - The fund has over 51% of its holdings in semiconductor and software companies, providing significant diversification and exposure to both established and emerging players in the tech industry [4] Historical Performance - Technology stocks have been a major contributor to market growth since the 1990s, with the Vanguard Information Technology ETF achieving an average annual return of 14.4% since its inception in 2004 [5][6] Cost Efficiency - The Vanguard Information Technology ETF has a low expense ratio of 0.09%, which is significantly lower than the average fee of 0.94% for similar funds, allowing investors to retain more of their gains [9][10] Investment Approach - A buy-and-hold strategy is recommended for ETFs, similar to individual stocks, to maximize potential returns over time [11] - Holding the Vanguard Information Technology ETF for at least five years is suggested to build a strong investment portfolio [12]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, Kingsoft's total revenue was RMB 2.419 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 17% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5% [6][13] - Revenue from the office software and services business increased by 26% year-on-year and 12% quarter-on-quarter to RMB 1.521 billion [13][14] - Revenue from online games and other businesses decreased by 47% year-on-year and 6% quarter-on-quarter to RMB 898 million [14] - Gross profit decreased by 21% year-on-year but increased by 5% quarter-on-quarter to RMB 1.944 billion, with a gross profit margin decrease of 4% year-on-year [15] - Profit attributable to owners of the parent was RMB 213 million, down from RMB 413 million year-on-year [18] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - WPS individual business revenue reached RMB 899 million, up 11% year-on-year, with global monthly active devices for WPS Office at 669 million, a 9% increase [7][8] - WPS 365 business revenue was RMB 201 million, a significant increase of 17% year-on-year [8] - Revenue for the WPS software business was RMB 391 million, up 15% year-on-year, driven by localization projects and AI-enabled products [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The online game business saw a decline in revenue primarily due to low contributions from certain existing games, although new games are in development [6][10] - The flagship game Jian Wang 3 Online celebrated its 16th anniversary, with new content updates planned [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Kingsoft continues to prioritize AI collaboration and internationalization, aiming to meet the needs of individual users and enterprises [4][12] - The online games business will focus on high-quality content development and global publishing [12] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the sustainability of growth in the office software segment, driven by increased membership and AI product enhancements [24][25] - The company is optimistic about the overseas market potential for WPS Office and 365, particularly in competition with Microsoft [31][32] Other Important Information - As of September 30, 2025, Kingsoft had cash resources of RMB 26 billion, indicating a strong cash position [19] - Research and development costs increased by 4% year-on-year, reflecting higher investment in AI and collaboration products [15][16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Regarding the gaming business, could management elaborate on operational strategies and the update progress of Metal Brick? - Management indicated that they are focusing on long-term upgrades and new content for existing games, with ongoing improvements for Metal Brick [22][23] Question: What are the main drivers behind the accelerated growth in the office business, and will this momentum be sustainable? - Management highlighted three growth factors: personnel growth, AI enhancements, and positive user feedback, indicating confidence in sustainability [24][25] Question: How does the company view opportunities for WPS Office and 365 in international markets? - Management noted strong growth in overseas markets and emphasized their competitive advantages against Microsoft, particularly in mobile and AI capabilities [31][32][33] Question: What is the progress of the AI business and its commercialization pace? - Management stated that the AI business is in early stages but is developing various applications across industries, with plans to establish an AI product center [42][43] Question: Will sales and marketing expenses return to normal levels in the near future? - Management expects that as the business stabilizes, marketing expenses will normalize, with a focus on long-term sustainable development [44][45]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, total revenue reached RMB 2.419 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 17% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5% [6][13] - Gross profit decreased by 21% year-on-year but increased by 5% quarter-on-quarter to RMB 1.944 billion, with a gross profit margin decrease of 4% year-on-year [15] - Profit attributable to owners of the parent was RMB 213 million, down from RMB 413 million year-on-year [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue from the office software and services business increased by 26% year-on-year to RMB 1.521 billion, driven by growth in WPS software and WPS 365 [13][14] - WPS individual business revenue reached RMB 899 million, up 11% year-on-year, with global monthly active devices reaching 669 million, a 9% increase [7] - Online games and other businesses saw revenue decrease by 47% year-on-year to RMB 898 million, primarily due to lower contributions from existing games [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - WPS 365 business revenue reached RMB 201 million, a significant increase of 17% year-on-year, reflecting enhanced collaboration and AI product offerings [8] - The online game business is focusing on developing high-quality content and expanding global publishing, with new titles expected to launch in the coming years [10][12] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is prioritizing AI collaboration and internationalization as strategic focuses, aiming to meet the needs of individual users and enterprises [4][12] - Kingsoft Office Group is committed to strengthening its brand and ecosystem development while enhancing AI application scenarios [4] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the sustainability of growth in the office software segment, driven by increased membership and AI product enhancements [22][25] - The online gaming segment is expected to improve with the launch of new games and ongoing content updates for existing titles [10][12] Other Important Information - As of September 30, 2025, the company had cash resources of RMB 26 billion, indicating a strong cash position [18] - Research and development costs increased by 4% year-on-year, reflecting higher investment in AI and collaboration products [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Regarding the gaming business, could management elaborate on operational strategies and the update progress of Metal Brick? - Management indicated that they are focusing on long-term upgrades and new content for existing games while continuing to optimize gameplay for new titles like Metal Brick [21] Question: What are the main drivers behind the accelerated growth in the office business, and will this momentum be sustainable? - Management highlighted three growth factors: personnel growth, AI product enhancements, and positive user feedback, indicating confidence in sustainable growth [22][25] Question: How does the company view opportunities for WPS Office and 365 in international markets? - Management noted that they have increased overseas R&D investment and are focusing on competition with Microsoft, emphasizing their advantages in mobile and AI capabilities [31][34] Question: What is the progress of the AI business and its commercialization pace? - Management stated that the AI business is in an early stage, with ongoing development in various industries, and plans to establish an AI product center [42][43] Question: Will sales and marketing expenses return to normal in the upcoming quarters? - Management expects that as the business stabilizes, marketing expenses will normalize, with a focus on long-term sustainable development [44]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, Kingsoft's total revenue reached RMB 2.419 billion, representing a year-on-year decrease of 17% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5% [5][13] - Revenue from the office software and services business increased by 26% year-on-year and 12% quarter-on-quarter to RMB 1.521 billion [13] - Revenue from online games and other businesses decreased by 47% year-on-year and 6% quarter-on-quarter to RMB 898 million [14] - Gross profit decreased by 21% year-on-year but increased by 5% quarter-on-quarter to RMB 1.944 billion, with a gross profit margin of 8% [15] - Profit attributable to owners of the parent was RMB 213 million, down from RMB 413 million year-on-year [17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - WPS individual business revenue reached RMB 899 million, up 11% year-on-year, with global monthly active devices reaching 669 million, a 9% increase [7] - WPS 365 business revenue reached RMB 201 million, a significant increase of 17% year-on-year [8] - Revenue for the WPS software business was RMB 391 million, up 15% year-on-year, driven by localization projects and AI-enabled products [9] - Online game revenue decreased primarily due to low contributions from certain existing games, despite new game launches [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a strong cash position with cash resources of RMB 26 billion as of September 30, 2025 [18] - Net cash generated from operating activities was RMB 494 million for the quarter [19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Kingsoft continues to prioritize AI collaboration and internationalization as strategic priorities, focusing on enhancing core product offerings [4][11] - The online games business aims to develop high-quality content and expand global publishing, while also optimizing gameplay for existing titles [10] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the sustainability of growth in the office software segment, driven by increased enterprise memberships and AI product enhancements [26] - The company is optimistic about the overseas market opportunities for WPS Office and 365, particularly in competing with Microsoft [32][34] Other Important Information - Research and development costs increased by 4% year-on-year, reflecting higher investment in AI and collaboration products [15] - Selling and distribution expenses rose by 55% year-on-year, primarily due to higher promotional expenditures related to online games [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Regarding the gaming business, could management elaborate on operational strategies and the update progress of Metal Brick? - Management indicated that they are focusing on long-term upgrades and new content for existing games, while the new game Metal Brick is still in the operational improvement phase [22][23] Question: What are the main drivers behind the accelerated growth in the office business, and will this momentum be sustainable? - Management highlighted three growth factors: personnel growth, AI enhancements, and positive user feedback, expressing confidence in sustaining this growth [24][25][26] Question: How does the company view opportunities for WPS Office and 365 in international markets? - Management noted that they have increased overseas R&D investment and are confident in competing with Microsoft, leveraging their mobile platform advantages [32][34] Question: What is the progress of the AI business and its commercialization pace? - Management stated that the AI business is in an early stage, with ongoing development across various industries, and plans to establish an AI product center [41][43] Question: Will sales and marketing expenses return to normal in the upcoming quarters? - Management expects that as the business stabilizes, marketing expenses will normalize, while emphasizing the need for initial high investments in R&D and AI [44][45]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of creating a balanced investment portfolio tailored to individual investor profiles, including age, risk tolerance, and financial goals [1] ETF Analysis - The Vanguard Total Market ETF (VTI) provides exposure to over 3,500 stocks across the entire U.S. stock market, including mid-cap and small-cap stocks, and has generated an average annual return of 14% over the past decade [3][5] - The Vanguard Growth Index ETF (VUG) focuses on leading growth stocks, particularly in the technology sector, which constitutes over 60% of its portfolio, achieving a yearly return of 17.4% over the past decade [6][8] - The Vanguard International High Dividend Yield ETF (VYMI) invests in dividend-paying stocks outside the U.S., with a portfolio comprising approximately 43% European companies, 26% from Asia Pacific, and over 20% from emerging markets, recording an average annual return of more than 13% over the past five years [9][11][12] - The Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF (BND) invests in a mix of government, corporate, and mortgage-backed securities, owning over 11,000 bonds, but has only averaged a 1.9% yearly return over the past decade, although it has rebounded by about 6.7% in 2025 [13][15][16]

Core Insights - The artificial intelligence (AI) revolution is significantly impacting technology investing, with companies in chips, software, and cloud infrastructure being revalued based on their AI exposure [2][8] - The Vanguard Information Technology ETF (VGT) encompasses major players in the AI space, including Nvidia, Microsoft, and Palantir Technologies, providing a diversified investment option with low fees [2][3][6] Performance and Structure - Year-to-date, the Vanguard Information Technology ETF has returned 23%, outperforming the S&P 500's 15.6% [3] - The ETF holds 314 tech stocks and has a low expense ratio of 0.09%, allowing investors to benefit from the growth of AI without the need for precise timing [3][9] Key Holdings and Industry Impact - Major holdings include Microsoft and Apple, which together account for approximately 25% of the fund, reflecting their significant roles in AI integration [6] - The fund captures the spillover effects of AI across various sectors, including custom AI chip design by Broadcom and database retrofitting by Oracle [7] Sector Dynamics - The technology sector's current dominance in the S&P 500 mirrors the dot-com bubble peaks, but this concentration is justified as AI continues to disrupt traditional industries [8] - By focusing on technology, the fund avoids sectors that are being disrupted, such as utilities and traditional retail, thus positioning itself with the disruptors [9] Long-term Strategy - The Vanguard fund adopts a patient investment strategy, allowing market-cap weighting to determine the winners in the AI space, rather than chasing individual stocks [10] - The fund's long-term track record indicates its potential to turn modest investments into substantial wealth over time [11] Future Outlook - AI spending is accelerating, and cloud adoption has significant growth potential, indicating a strong trend for the future [13] - The companies within the fund are expected to shape the next 25 years of technology, making it a strategic investment choice [14]

Summary of Kingdee (0268.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Kingdee International Software Group Company Limited (0268.HK) - **Industry**: Software and Cloud Services Key Points Financial Performance - Kingdee reported an Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) growth of **18% YoY** to **Rmb3.86 billion** by the end of September 2025, compared to **18.5% YoY** to **Rmb3.73 billion** by the end of June 2025 [1][5][7] - The net addition to ARR was **Rmb130 million**, accounting for **41%** of the estimated ARR net additions for the second half of 2025, consistent with historical trends [1][5] - The company's Net Dollar Retention Rate (NDR) for large-scale cloud services was **105%** in Q3, down from **108%** in the first half of 2025 [1][5][12] Revenue Segmentation - By segment, the NDR for: - Large-scale cloud (Cosmic/Constellation): **105%** - Mid-scale cloud (Galaxy): **95%** - SME cloud (Stellar/Jingdou): **93%/88%** in Q3 [1][5][12] Future Outlook - Kingdee expects ARR to grow **18% YoY** by the end of 2025, driven by AI integration and deeper client penetration [1][7] - The company continues to prioritize AI-driven solutions and subscription models, with cloud subscription revenues contributing **53%** of total revenues in the first half of 2025 [1][7] Earnings Revision - Earnings for 2025 have been revised down by **2%**, while 2026-2027 earnings remain largely unchanged. The revenue growth for the mid-scale cloud business has been fine-tuned [1][8] - Projected revenues for 2025E are **Rmb7.044 billion**, with a **23% CAGR** expected from 2025 to 2027 [1][8][9] Valuation - The target price for Kingdee is revised to **HK$18.98**, based on a blend of DCF and P/S methodologies, implying a **28.2% upside** from the current price of **HK$14.81** [1][11][22] - The updated **2026E P/S ratio** is **6.4x**, based on the average P/S valuation of Kingdee's software peers [1][11][18] Risks - Key downside risks include: 1. Weaker-than-expected demand for ERP digitization 2. Slower product development processes 3. Increased talent and labor costs [1][19] Additional Insights - Kingdee's focus on AI and subscription services is expected to enhance profitability and scale [1][7] - The company has established relationships with new clients, including BAIC, Yuchai Machinery, and Bloomage Biotech, which may further support revenue growth [1][7] This summary encapsulates the essential insights from the conference call regarding Kingdee's financial performance, future outlook, earnings revisions, valuation, and associated risks.