PresentationGood morning, everyone. Welcome to the Q1 Trading Update Call for The Sage Group. Your speakers today will be Steve Hare, Chief Executive Officer; and Jacqui Cartin, Chief Financial Officer. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Hare. Please go ahead.Thank you very much, and good morning to everyone. And as always, thank you for joining us. I'm really pleased to be joined this morning by Jacqui Cartin, who is our new CFO, as you know, started on the 1st of J ...

Group 1: Soros Fund Management's Investments - Billionaire investor George Soros has significantly increased positions in mega-cap stocks, notably Apple and Amazon, with new investments totaling hundreds of millions of dollars [1][2] - In Q3 2025, Soros Fund Management acquired over 1.843 million shares of Amazon, valued at $404.808 million, resulting in a total holding of $488.803 million, which is a 482% increase from Q2 [1] - The firm also purchased 328,605 shares of Apple worth $84.718 million, raising its total investment in Apple to $89.053 million, reflecting a 1,954% quarter-over-quarter increase [2] - Additionally, Soros Fund Management acquired 631,397 shares of Alphabet, valued at $155.297 million, bringing total holdings to 658,367 shares worth $160.049 million, marking a 2,341% increase from Q2 [2] Group 2: Total Investment and Market Context - Overall, Soros Fund Management invested $644.823 million in Amazon, Apple, and Alphabet within a single quarter [3] - Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway also entered a new position in Alphabet during Q3 2025, purchasing 17.846 million shares valued at $4.93 billion, which constitutes 1.6% of its portfolio [3] - On December 31, 2025, Warren Buffett stepped down as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway, with Greg Abel succeeding him on January 1, 2026, while Buffett remains as chairman [3]

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Core Insights - The focus is on income-producing asset classes that provide sustainable portfolio income, diversification, and inflation hedging [1][2] Group 1: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy emphasizes high-yield, dividend growth ideas, targeting dividend yields up to 10% [2] - The service offers investment research on various asset classes including REITs, ETFs, closed-end funds, preferreds, and dividend champions [2] Group 2: Market Context - Market volatility has returned, particularly affecting AI-related stocks like Oracle, which experience significant daily price swings [2] - The current investment approach favors defensive stocks with a medium- to long-term horizon amidst market fluctuations [2]

Alphabet's odds on Polymarket of being the world's largest company at the end of next year are nearly neck-and-neck with Nvidia's. ...

Core Insights - The stock market experienced unexpected gains during a holiday week, with the S&P 500 ending about 1% below its 52-week high and Eli Lilly achieving a market capitalization of $1 trillion, joining Berkshire Hathaway as the only non-tech companies at this level [1][2] - The recent rally was largely influenced by comments from John Williams, a key Federal Reserve official, indicating that the risks of an economic slowdown outweigh inflation concerns, suggesting a probable interest rate cut [2][3] - The market's recent pullback was attributed to concerns over Big Tech's investments in artificial intelligence, particularly regarding the substantial costs associated with data centers and AI infrastructure [5][6] Market Performance - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite experienced declines of 5.5% and over 8% respectively from their all-time highs reached on October 29, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average also falling 5.5% from its peak on November 12 [6] - The market has seen five consecutive gains, raising speculation about the potential for continued upward momentum into December, contingent on avoiding significant negative events [2][4] Future Outlook - There are only 22 trading days left in 2025, and the market's trajectory will depend on the emergence of any abrupt and serious issues [4] - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is anticipated to be a critical factor in determining market direction, with a consensus leaning towards a rate cut [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The concentration of market capitalization in a few companies, referred to as the "Magnificent Seven," continues to attract investment despite concerns about their high valuations and potential market risks [2][10]. Group 1: Magnificent Seven Performance - The Magnificent Seven includes Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla, which have shown significant stock performance, with the NASDAQ gaining 46% [2]. - Amazon's web services division has seen a growth rate increase from 17.5% to 20%, indicating strong performance despite previous concerns about losing market share to Microsoft [5][14]. - Following a strategic partnership with OpenAI, Amazon's stock surged from $222 to $254, marking a nearly 16% increase [8]. Group 2: Growth as a Key Factor - The primary driver for the Magnificent Seven's attractiveness is their growth rates, which are essential for stock investors [12][23]. - Growth stocks have proven to be resilient, bouncing back during market downturns, such as the mini banking crisis of 2023 [13]. - The growth of Amazon Web Services, with a revenue run rate of $132 billion and a 34% gross operating margin, exemplifies the profitable growth potential that investors seek [14][15]. Group 3: Comparison with Other Companies - Kimberly Clark, despite being a well-known company, reported a mere 2.5% organic growth rate, which is insufficient to attract investors interested in the Magnificent Seven [18][19]. - The acquisition of Kenview by Kimberly Clark, valued at nearly $50 billion, did not impress Wall Street, highlighting the challenges faced by traditional companies in maintaining growth [26]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Investment Strategy - Institutional investors are likely to buy into the Magnificent Seven during market dips to avoid looking uninformed to their clients [4][3]. - The focus on growth rather than traditional safety stocks indicates a shift in investment strategy, with growth stocks being viewed as the new safe haven [12][20].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **China Internet** industry, particularly the **AI applications** sector and its dynamics in July 2025, highlighting trends in **cloud service providers (CSP)** and **AI model performance**. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Chip Supply Dynamics**: - The evolving dynamics of Nvidia's H20 chip supply are crucial, with potential resumption of chip sales to China being discussed. This could lead to a significant increase in CSP capital expenditures (capex), projected to rise by **42% quarter-over-quarter in 3Q25** from a likely low in 2Q25 [1][1][1]. 2. **AI Model Launches**: - Continued launches of foundation models are noted, with performance gaps between US and Chinese models narrowing. OpenAI's GPT-5 launch is mentioned, but new models from Chinese platforms like Zhipu's GLM-4.5 and Alibaba's Qwen are showing competitive performance [1][1][1]. 3. **Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) Trends**: - Monthly ARR trends for popular AI video generation models are highlighted, with **80% of China's AI ARR generated from overseas**, despite only capturing **5% of the total global AI applications revenue**. Key applications include video generation and image editing [1][1][1]. 4. **Engagement Trends**: - There is a noted **6% month-over-month decline** in engagement for consumer-facing AI chatbots in July, attributed to increased integration of AI functions into super-apps. Specific apps like DeepSeek and Doubao saw declines of **10% and 13% month-over-month**, respectively [1][1][1]. 5. **Enterprise AI Adoption**: - The adoption of AI by Chinese enterprises is accelerating, with token usage increasing by **404% and 284% year-over-year** for AI-native apps and in-app AIs, respectively. Notably, **66% of the top 30 AI apps** are developed by major internet companies: Alibaba, Baidu, ByteDance, and Tencent [6][6][6]. 6. **Mobile App Engagement**: - Overall engagement across the top 400 mobile apps increased by **6% year-over-year** in July 2025, with significant growth in Weixin and Douyin app engagement, which grew by **6% and 19% year-over-year**, respectively [7][7][7]. 7. **E-commerce and Local Services**: - E-commerce engagement grew by **14% year-over-year**, with JD and Taobao showing strong growth rates of **76% and 11% year-over-year**. Local services engagement also accelerated to **18% year-over-year** [11][11][11]. 8. **Gaming Engagement**: - Gaming engagement increased by **3% year-over-year** in July, with specific titles like Tencent's DnF mobile maintaining stable time spent shares [10][10][10]. Additional Important Insights - The report emphasizes a more defensive investment strategy due to weaker profit setups in transaction platforms, particularly in e-commerce and local services [10][10][10]. - The competitive landscape for AI applications is evolving, with significant implications for gaming and video generation due to advancements in multi-modal AI models [1][1][1]. - The report includes detailed statistics on the performance of various AI applications, highlighting the competitive positioning of companies like Kuaishou and ByteDance in the AI video generation space [36][36][36]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the China Internet and AI applications industry.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the China Internet sector, particularly focusing on mega-cap companies and their upcoming Q2 earnings reports. - It is anticipated that aggregate profits for the China Internet sector will decline by 10% year-over-year (YoY) for the first time since Q2 2022, primarily due to challenges in eCommerce and local services [1][1]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **AI and Cloud Revenue Growth**: - There is an expected sequential acceleration in AI/cloud hyperscaler revenue growth, with Alibaba Cloud projected to grow by 23% YoY, up from 18% in the previous quarter. This growth is attributed to rising demand for AI inference and applications [1][1]. - Comparatively, other cloud services like Google Cloud, Azure, and AWS are expected to grow by 32%, 39%, and 17% respectively during the same period [1][1]. 2. **Profit Declines in Transaction Platforms**: - Significant profit declines are anticipated across major transaction platforms, with Alibaba's EBITA expected to drop by 16% YoY, and Meituan and JD projected to see declines of 58-70% YoY due to increased competition in food delivery and merchant support measures [1][1]. - In contrast, sub-segments such as gaming and mobility are expected to show healthy profit growth, with Tencent's adjusted EBIT growth estimated at 15% YoY [1][1]. 3. **Government Policies and Competition**: - The intensity of food delivery competition is expected to peak in Q3, with a potential for a more fragmented market in the long term. ECommerce players are positioning food delivery as a customer acquisition channel [1][1]. - The report suggests that while competition may moderate in the near term, it will likely extend longer than anticipated, affecting the overall landscape of food delivery services [1][1]. 4. **Company-Specific Expectations**: - **Tencent**: Expected to report Q2 revenue growth of 11% YoY, with adjusted EBIT growth of 15% YoY, driven by solid performance in games and marketing services [1][1]. - **Alibaba**: Anticipated to see a 3% YoY revenue increase in Q1 FY26, with a significant decline in adjusted EBITA by 16% YoY due to investments in food delivery and instant shopping [1][1]. - **PDD**: Projected revenue growth of 11% YoY in Q2, but adjusted EBIT is expected to decline by 38% YoY [1][1]. - **Meituan**: Expected to report a 16% YoY revenue increase, but adjusted EBIT is projected to decline by 58% YoY due to competitive pressures [1][1]. - **JD**: Anticipated revenue growth of 16% YoY, but adjusted EBIT is expected to decline by 70% YoY [1][1]. - **DiDi**: Expected to see revenue growth of 8% YoY, with adjusted EBIT growth of 32% YoY, driven by operational leverage [1][1]. Other Important Insights - The report highlights the ongoing competition in eCommerce, particularly in food delivery and on-demand shopping, with Alibaba's instant shopping volumes reaching 15 million daily [1][1]. - Geopolitical developments and their implications on cross-border business models are also discussed, particularly in light of expanded tariffs and potential delisting risks for ADR companies [1][1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of AI investments and the expected increase in capital expenditures for AI applications in the second half of 2025 [1][1]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the current state and future outlook of the China Internet sector and its major players.

Core Insights - Brendan Gregg is a renowned expert in performance analysis, having worked for major tech companies like Netflix and Intel, and is known for creating widely used performance analysis tools such as flame graphs [1][3][6] - The article discusses Brendan's experiences and insights from three years of remote work, particularly focusing on the challenges and misconceptions surrounding remote working arrangements [4][5][6] Remote Work Experience - Over the past three years, Brendan participated in 77 meetings scheduled between 1 AM and 6 AM, averaging one every two weeks, while working for Intel remotely from Australia [6][7] - Despite the unusual working hours, Brendan does not feel that his work hours are excessively long, aiming to clarify misconceptions about remote workers' lifestyles [6][9] Meeting Management - Brendan suggests recording non-working hour meetings to manage expectations and save time, sharing statistics on the number of late-night meetings he has attended [11] - He advises against complaining about work hours, as it may be used by management to oppose remote work arrangements [11][12] Maintaining Productivity - Keeping a daily record of completed tasks has proven effective for Brendan in maintaining motivation and productivity [12] - He emphasizes the importance of clarifying misunderstandings about his availability, as others may incorrectly assume he is unavailable due to time zone differences [12][13] Health and Well-being - Brendan notes that frequent early meetings can lead to gastrointestinal discomfort, which can last for several days [13] - He reports a significant reduction in sick days taken, averaging 0.33 days per year during remote work compared to 1.5 days in his previous in-office role [13] Time Zone Challenges - The differences in daylight saving time adjustments between hemispheres complicate scheduling, with Brendan's working hours overlapping with the US West Coast varying by 3 to 5 hours throughout the year [13][14] - He has experimented with different work schedules to better accommodate family time while managing work commitments [14] Career Development Concerns - Remote work may limit career advancement opportunities, as local employees often receive more visibility and opportunities despite remote employees' capabilities [15] - Brendan compares remote and in-office work experiences, noting that the nature of work and communication methods can make remote work comparable to in-office settings [15][16] Successful Remote Work Examples - The Linux development community serves as a successful example of global remote collaboration, highlighting that remote employees can still participate in significant company events [16] - Brendan's own experiences with remote work illustrate the potential for productivity and collaboration despite common misconceptions about remote working conditions [16]