Joining us now is Abby Joseph Cohen, Columbia Business School professor and retired Goldman Sachs partner. And great to have you. On the day that we crossed through the 7000 threshold on the S&P 500, I know it doesn't mean a lot fundamentally, but it is a big round number.And I wonder what your take is on this continued a i boom. You know, a small CEO said just now his customers are starting to realize that it's sustainable and so are aggressively building up their equipment. Well, I'm delighted to be here ...

Core Insights - The S&P 500 index closed at 6,845.5 in 2025, exceeding initial forecasts by more than 16% [1][3] - Analysts had predicted a modest year for the stock market, with expectations of gains between 5% to 10% [4][5] - The unexpected rise in the S&P 500 was influenced by various factors, including President Trump's tariffs and the performance of AI stocks [6][20] Market Predictions and Performance - Initial forecasts for the S&P 500 in 2025 ranged from 6,275 to 6,375, reflecting a gain of approximately 7%-8% [5] - The S&P 500 had finished 2024 at 5,881.6, marking a 23% increase from the previous year [4] - The index's performance in 2025 was significantly better than the conservative estimates made by analysts earlier in the year [12][14] Impact of Tariffs - President Trump's "Liberation Day" tariffs, announced on April 2, led to a sharp decline in the S&P 500, which fell below 5,000, a drop of nearly 20% [7][8] - The initial fears surrounding the tariffs included potential runaway inflation and reduced consumer spending, which did not materialize as expected [15][17] - Only about 20% of the tariffs were passed on to consumers, mitigating the anticipated inflationary impact [17][18] AI Market Dynamics - Concerns about an "AI bubble" influenced stock predictions, with high price-to-earnings ratios indicating potential overvaluation [21][22] - Despite these concerns, investment in AI stocks exceeded expectations, contributing to higher corporate earnings and stock prices [23] - A significant majority of investors expressed intentions to maintain or increase their AI stock holdings [22] Future Market Outlook - Forecasts for the S&P 500 in 2026 suggest a target range of 7,400 to 7,500, indicating potential gains of 8% to nearly 10% [24] - The upcoming midterm elections are expected to introduce volatility, as historical trends suggest challenges for the party in power [24] - Observers note that President Trump's responsiveness to stock market performance may influence future economic policies [26][27]

To be sure, this bottom-up number is notably more optimistic than the median from investment-bank forecasts collected by MarketWatch, which stands at 7,500. That would represent an advance of about 9% from Friday’s close of about 6,930 — roughly in line with the S&P 500’s average calendar-year return, between 1950 and 2024, of 9.5%. Of the official forecasts collected by MarketWatch, only the most bullish equity strategists on Wall Street expect the index to finish next year at 8,000.Yet analysts across Wal ...

Group 1: Investment News Highlights - Bill Ackman has made a $2.1 billion deal to acquire an insurer, aiming to create a "modern Berkshire Hathaway" [1] - Ray Dalio discusses the evolving nature of market crises and their impact on investment strategies [1] - A rotation from growth stocks to value stocks is anticipated to strengthen in the upcoming year [1] Group 2: Value Investing Insights - 2026 is projected to be a significant year for value stocks, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [4] - Polen Capital emphasizes a multi-dimensional approach to small-cap investing, highlighting the importance of diversification [4] - The Fear & Greed Index indicates a strongly overvalued market, suggesting caution among investors [4] Group 3: Research and Analysis - Research indicates that regulation may not effectively mitigate bad behavior in financial markets [7] - Professionals recommend various books that can enhance investment knowledge and strategies [7] - Predictions for 2026 suggest that the equal-weight S&P 500 may outperform the traditional market cap-weighted version [7]

Group 1 - Elastic (NYSE: ESTC) has experienced a decline in investor favor due to slowing growth, despite its product being increasingly relevant in the current market [1] - The company's offerings are positioned well within the tech landscape, indicating potential for future growth [1]

Bloomberg The holiday-shortened week started with gains in stocks amid a broad advance that saw a continuation of the bullish momentum on Wall Street. Oil and gold rallied as the dollar fell. Equities erased their December losses, with the S&P 500 set for an eighth straight up month - the longest winning run since 2018. Over 400 of its shares rose as the gauge approached a record. Tesla Inc. and Nvidia Corp. led megacaps higher. A gauge of smaller firms climbed 1.5%. Most Read from Bloomberg Photograp ...

Core Insights - Precious metals like gold and silver are experiencing historic highs, with gold prices rising 70% and silver prices increasing 130% this year, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics [2][3] - Simultaneously, tech stocks, particularly in the Nasdaq Composite, have surged approximately 21% year-to-date, driven by strong performance from major tech companies and investor enthusiasm for AI technologies [5][6] Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold and silver have reached all-time highs, with gold surpassing previous records and silver following closely behind [2] - The rally in precious metals is driven by geopolitical risks and expectations of a shift towards easier monetary policy by the Federal Reserve in 2026 [3][4] - Central banks globally are increasing their gold reserves, and inflows into precious-metal ETFs are contributing to rising asset prices, reflecting investor interest in safe-haven assets amid concerns over fiat currencies [4] Group 2: Tech Stocks - The Nasdaq Composite has rebounded after a softer start to December, with recent sentiment around AI economics helping to alleviate concerns about capital expenditures [6] - The last time gold and growth stocks moved in tandem was during the pandemic-era liquidity surge, highlighting a historical correlation between safe-haven assets and risk assets during times of economic uncertainty [7] - Over the past five years, the Nasdaq has increased over 80%, while gold has gained over 130%, showcasing the volatility and potential profitability of these trades [8]

Hedge funds sold Hong Kong and Japanese stocks last week, Goldman Sachs said in a note, just before the tech-heavy Hang Seng and Nikkei indices fell in the last two trading sessions on worries over over-inflated tech values. ...

The S&P 500 is on track to finish the year up 16%, delivering a third consecutive year of double-digit returns that outpace historical averages. The gain, which comes on top of a whopping 23% and 26% return in 2024 and 2023, respectively, is mainly due to surging interest in artificial intelligence and a friendlier Federal Reserve. The rise of AI, sparked by the massively successful launch of OpenAI's ChatGPT three years ago, has drawn comparisons to the dawn of the Internet. Big tech has already spent h ...

Group 1: Immigration Policy Impact - Trump's announcement of a "permanent pause" on migration from "Third World Countries" and a review of green card holders could significantly impact the labor market, potentially reducing U.S. workers by 6.8 million by 2028 and 15.7 million by 2035, which may slash annual economic growth by nearly a third [4][3] - Analysts are divided on the implications of these immigration policies, with some predicting a "pro-growth" agenda while others warn of labor shortages and a potential "wage-price spiral" [3][4] Group 2: Tariff Threats and Economic Implications - Trump is threatening a 60% tariff on Chinese goods and a 10-20% tariff on other imports, which could lead to increased inflation and slower investment growth, as noted by Nomura [5] - The market has previously reacted to tariff announcements with volatility, as seen in the EU-US trade deal where a 15% tariff was imposed, initially causing a rise in European markets before reversing [5] Group 3: Market Reactions and Stock Performance - On November 28, 2025, major U.S. indices saw modest gains, with the S&P 500 up 0.5%, Dow Jones up 0.6%, and Nasdaq up 0.7%, attributed to Trump's pro-growth rhetoric and the performance of tech stocks [4][7] - Despite the overall market gains, individual tech stocks like Nvidia and Oracle faced significant losses, indicating that even leading companies are not immune to valuation concerns [7][8] Group 4: Geopolitical Tensions and Commodity Markets - Trump's threats of military action against Venezuelan drug networks have contributed to increased geopolitical tensions, which typically benefit commodity markets, as evidenced by a rise in WTI crude oil and precious metals [9] Group 5: Analyst Sentiment and Economic Forecasts - Analysts express a mix of cautious optimism and frustration, with J.P. Morgan anticipating a mostly market-friendly agenda but highlighting risks from labor supply shocks, while Goldman Sachs projects a 2.5% U.S. economic growth in 2025, tempered by potential tariff impacts [10]