Summary of Inbound Travel Retail in China Industry Overview - The inbound travel retail market in China is projected to grow from **US$14 billion in 2024 to US$60 billion by 2034**, representing a **15% CAGR** [1][10][27] - By 2034, inbound travel retail is expected to account for **25% of China's total travel retail market**, up from **10%** in previous years [10][27] Key Drivers of Growth - **Globally Known Brands**: The presence of well-known brands and competitive pricing is attracting international tourists [4][10] - **Improved Shopping Experience**: The introduction of tax-free shopping (TFS) and instant tax refunds is enhancing the shopping experience for inbound tourists [5][10][31] - **Policy Support**: Recent policy changes are aimed at expanding tax-free shopping and improving infrastructure to support inbound tourism [26][48] Tax-Free Shopping Impact - The tax-free shopping market is expected to grow from **<US$0.5 billion in 2024 to US$20 billion by 2035** [94] - The **instant tax refund system** was expanded nationwide in April 2025, significantly increasing the number of malls offering this service from **2 to 17** among the top 20 malls in China [5][34][98] - Retail sales with tax refunds in cities like Shenzhen and Shanghai have shown remarkable growth, with increases of **160% and 75% YoY**, respectively, in the first half of 2025 [35][103] Competitive Pricing - Chinese brands offer products at **20-50% lower prices** compared to international markets, making them attractive to tourists [4][29] - Imported luxury goods in China are competitively priced, often similar to or lower than prices in key Asian markets [29][74] Market Segmentation - The inbound travel retail market is primarily driven by international tourists, excluding visitors from Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan, who are expected to contribute significantly to growth [27][45] - The duty-free market is also gaining traction, with projections of **US$5 billion in spending by inbound tourists by 2035** [36] Implications for Retailers - Retailers, malls, and duty-free operators in China are expected to benefit the most from the growth in inbound tourism [6][40] - Companies like **CR Land, Hang Lung Properties, and CTG Duty Free** are identified as key beneficiaries [43] Risks and Challenges - Potential dilution of the Hong Kong retail market due to increased competition from mainland China [6][40] - The need for improved tax refund services and training for sales staff to facilitate the shopping experience for tourists [39] Conclusion - The inbound travel retail market in China is at a pivotal point, with significant growth potential driven by favorable policies, competitive pricing, and an enhanced shopping experience. Retailers and duty-free operators are well-positioned to capitalize on this trend, although challenges remain in execution and market competition.