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歌尔股份 - A_需求提前释放推动 2025 年第二季度业绩强劲;对 2026 年增长催化剂的预期合理
2025-08-31 16:21
Summary of Goertek - A Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Goertek Inc. - **Ticker**: 002241.SZ - **Industry**: Technology, specifically VR headset assembly Key Financial Metrics - **Current Price**: Rmb30.96 (as of August 25, 2025) - **Price Target**: Rmb26.50 (for June 2026) - **Market Cap**: Approximately $15.08 billion - **Shares Outstanding**: 3,491 million - **52-week Range**: Rmb17.11 - Rmb32.00 Earnings Performance - **2Q25 Recurring NP**: Rmb741 million, up 154% quarter-over-quarter (qoq) and 30% above expectations - **Sales Growth**: 30% qoq driven by early order pull-in for Apple products and Meta VR headsets - **Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: Increased by 1.9 percentage points qoq to 13.4% - **Capex Growth**: 45% yoy in 1H25, indicating investment in new projects Future Outlook - **Revenue Forecast**: Expected to decline year-over-year (yoy) in 2H25 but projected to grow by 28% yoy in 2026 - **Earnings Growth**: Anticipated 20% yoy earnings growth in 2026, despite potential margin dilution from new low-margin projects - **New Projects**: Engagement in AI glass, AirPods, and a potential new game console expected to drive revenue growth Investment Thesis - **Neutral Rating**: Despite positive growth projections, the current valuation is considered fair after a significant share price rally of over 60% since April 2025 - **Earnings CAGR**: Projected at 20% from 2024 to 2027, but this upside is believed to be already reflected in the current share price Risks - **Upside Risks**: Better-than-expected demand for VR products and successful new business developments - **Downside Risks**: Potential market share losses, lower average selling prices (ASP) for Apple projects, and demand uncertainty for VR/AR products Financial Estimates - **Revenue Estimates**: - FY25E: Rmb94,143 million - FY26E: Rmb120,559 million - FY27E: Rmb137,380 million - **Adjusted EPS**: - FY25E: Rmb0.93 - FY26E: Rmb1.12 - FY27E: Rmb1.33 Valuation Metrics - **P/E Ratio**: 22x one-year forward P/E, in line with peer average - **Dividend Yield**: Expected to be 0.6% in FY25E, increasing to 0.9% by FY27E Style Exposure - **Value Rank**: 52% - **Growth Rank**: 54% - **Momentum Rank**: 76% - **Quality Rank**: 60% - **Low Volatility Rank**: 64% - **ESG Quality Rank**: 18% Conclusion - **Overall Assessment**: Goertek is positioned for growth in the VR headset market with new projects on the horizon, but current valuations suggest a neutral stance on investment. The company faces both opportunities and risks that could impact future performance.