《头号外交官》第三季
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Q3业绩稳健、增长王牌在手 奈飞(NFLX.US)获Guggenheim看高至1450美元
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-10-28 07:46
Core Viewpoint - Guggenheim maintains a "Buy" rating for Netflix (NFLX.US) with a target price of $1450, citing steady progress in Q3 and multiple growth drivers for future expansion [1][2] Group 1: Q3 Performance - Netflix's Q3 performance met market expectations, with revenue outlook for Q4 slightly exceeding previous guidance [1] - Revenue growth in Q3 was driven by an increase in subscribers, price adjustments, and accelerated advertising revenue, with the advertising business achieving its best sales record in history [2] - The company’s core operating margin for Q3 was 33.6%, surpassing the guidance of 31.5%, although reported operating margin was impacted by a one-time tax in Brazil [2] Group 2: User Engagement and Content Strategy - In the U.S. market, Netflix achieved a record high in quarterly viewing share, with total viewing hours slightly above the first half of the year [2] - The company expects to maintain user engagement growth in Q4 through popular content such as "Stranger Things," "The Diplomat" Season 3, and "The Perfect Match" Season 2 [2] - Netflix is expanding growth avenues through collaborations, including partnerships with Mattel (MAT.US) and Hasbro (HAS.US) for IP merchandise, and Spotify (SPOT.US) for podcast content [2] Group 3: Future Growth and Valuation - Guggenheim anticipates Netflix will drive incremental growth through five key areas: advertising expansion, video game development, IP ecosystem building, podcasting, and live content collaborations [2] - The target price of $1450 is based on a 42.5x expected P/E ratio for 2026, reflecting a premium of about 70% over the broader tech sector, indicating confidence in Netflix's leading position in the streaming industry and its long-term value creation capabilities [2]