Core Viewpoint - The report from First Shanghai highlights that Pop Mart (09992) has exceeded expectations in Q3 revenue performance and has a strong outlook for Q4, leading to an upward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 132.9 billion, 197.8 billion, and 252.0 billion yuan respectively, with a target price of 400.0 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 75.3% from the current stock price and a buy rating [1] Domestic Online Business Performance - The domestic offline channel saw a revenue increase of 130-135% in Q3, attributed to optimized store experiences and improved operational efficiency, maintaining an average store efficiency above double [2] - The online channel performed exceptionally well, with a year-on-year growth of 300-305%, driven by effective conversion from live e-commerce, deep operation of private traffic through box machines, and recognition of some Q2 pre-sale orders in Q3 [2] Overseas Business Growth - In Q3 2025, overseas revenue continued to grow significantly, with the Asia-Pacific region (excluding China) increasing by 170-175%, the Americas by 1265-1270%, and Europe and other regions by 735-740% [3] - The company is rapidly expanding its market presence by opening new stores, with the number of overseas stores reaching 140 by August 20, 2025, and expected to reach 200 by year-end [3] - Future plans include exploring emerging markets in the Middle East, Central Europe, and Central South America, while also establishing flagship stores in major global cities like Paris, Sydney, Milan, and New York [3] New Product Success - The market demand for new products remains high, with strong growth momentum. The Halloween-themed "Why So Serious" plush series launched on October 9 sold out quickly, and several regular items are selling at multiple times their original price [4] - The "Starry Person" product has seen rapid market recognition and appreciation through series operation, with a secondary market premium of 99%, second only to LABUBU's 215% [4] - Collaborations with popular media, such as the SKULLPANDA series linked to the show "Wednesday," have significantly boosted brand awareness and engagement in the North American market [4] Q4 Growth Catalysts - Looking ahead to Q4, the domestic market will experience major e-commerce events like "Double Eleven" and "Double Twelve," while overseas markets will see traditional consumption peaks during Halloween, Thanksgiving, and Christmas [5] - The company is expected to launch several holiday-themed new products and replenish popular items, which is likely to reignite global consumer purchasing enthusiasm and support Q4 performance [5]

智通财经APP获悉，第一上海发布研报称，基于泡泡玛特(09992)Q3超预期的营收表现以及Q4强劲的旺 季展望，将2025-2027年盈利预测上调至132.9/197.8/252.0亿元，给予目标价400.0港元，相当于25/26财 年盈利预测35.8/24.1倍PE，距离当前股价有75.3%涨幅，买入评级。2025Q3公司营业收入同比增长 245%-250%，在基数较高的背景下，较2025H1204%的增速进一步提速其中国内营收同比增长 185%-190%，海外营收同比增长365%-370%，整体业绩表现超预期。 第一上海主要观点如下： 国内线上业务表现亮眼 国内分管道看，线下管道Q3营收同比增长130-135%，考虑到期内国内门店网络规模并未进行快速扩 张，预计这一增长主要得益于门店体验的持续优化与运营效率的全面提升，使得平均店效维持在翻倍以 上水准。线上管道表现尤为突出，同比增长300%–305%，该行认为线上管道收入高增主要得益于直播 电商的高效转化、抽盒机等私域流量的深度运营，以及部分Q2预售订单在Q3确认收入的共同贡献。 海外业务延续爆发式增长，美洲市场为主要增长引擎 2025Q3海外营收延续高增 ...