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研报掘金丨国海证券:下调三只松鼠至“增持”评级,毛利率改善,费率上行拖累盈利表现
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-11-06 07:31
Core Insights - The report from Guohai Securities indicates that Three Squirrels' net profit attributable to shareholders for Q1-Q3 2025 is 161 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 52.91% [1] - In Q3 2025, the net profit attributable to shareholders is 22 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 56.79% [1] - The improvement in gross margin is offset by rising expenses, impacting overall profitability [1] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company has adjusted its online operational strategy, leading to a slowdown in online channel revenue [1] - In terms of offline channels, the company is focusing on distribution channels, which are expected to continue contributing to revenue growth [1] - The company is making progress in its reforms under the "high-end cost performance" strategy, establishing a "D+N" all-channel collaborative system [1] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 11.47 billion, 12.62 billion, and 14.01 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 8%, 10%, and 11% respectively [1] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 187 million, 252 million, and 420 million yuan, with a year-on-year change of -54%, +34%, and +67% respectively [1] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.47, 0.63, and 1.05 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 50, 38, and 23 times [1] Strategic Initiatives - The company is expected to continue focusing on distribution channels and exploring its own brand lifestyle stores, which may gradually improve its offline weaknesses [1] - The product strategy is shifting towards differentiation and quality enhancement, which is anticipated to boost profitability [1] - The company has downgraded its profit forecast due to ongoing expense investments [1]
机构风向标 | 三只松鼠(300783)2025年三季度已披露前十大机构持股比例合计下跌2.54个百分点
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-10-29 02:12
Core Insights - The report indicates a decrease in institutional ownership of Three Squirrels, with a total of 34.8 million shares held by 9 institutional investors, representing 8.66% of the total share capital, down by 2.54 percentage points from the previous quarter [1] Institutional Investors - The institutional investors include NICE GROWTH LIMITED, Anhui Liaoyuan Investment Management Co., Ltd., Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, among others [1] - The number of public funds that reduced their holdings this quarter is 1, specifically the Southern CSI 1000 ETF, with a slight decrease in shareholding [1] - A total of 172 public funds did not disclose their holdings this quarter, including major funds like Huaxia CSI 1000 ETF and CITIC Securities Rotation Mixed A [1] Social Security and Pension Funds - One new social security fund disclosed its holdings in Three Squirrels, namely CITIC Securities Co., Ltd. - Social Security Fund 17052 Combination [2] - Two social security funds did not disclose their holdings this quarter, including National Social Security Fund 418 Combination and National Social Security Fund 602 Combination [2] - One pension fund increased its holdings this quarter, specifically the Basic Pension Insurance Fund 16032 Combination, with a slight increase in shareholding [2] Foreign Investment - One foreign fund increased its holdings this quarter, namely Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, with a slight increase in shareholding [2] - One foreign fund reduced its holdings this quarter, NICE GROWTH LIMITED, with a decrease of 0.92% [2]