Core Viewpoint - The report from China Merchants Securities International initiates coverage on Great Wall Motor (02543) with a target price of HKD 56 and a rating of "Buy," forecasting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 50% in sales from 2024 to 2027, driven by new product launches and improved profit margins [1] Group 1: Sales and Profitability - The expected CAGR for sales from 2024 to 2027 is 50% [1] - Gross margin is projected to improve by approximately 100 basis points annually [1] - The introduction of new products, including three-fold and electric assist models, is anticipated to drive an increase in average selling price (ASP) [1] Group 2: Online and International Expansion - The share of online sales is expected to rise to about 35% by 2026, with a gross margin of around 50%, significantly higher than the 27-28% margin from offline sales [1] - Revenue growth is expected to accelerate in the second half of 2025, with a projected 50% increase in Q3 and over 85% year-on-year growth in October [1] - The overseas business aims for revenue of RMB 150 million by 2026 and RMB 300 million by 2027, benefiting from higher profit margins in the European and American markets, where electric assist penetration is 20-30%, compared to less than 5% in China [1] Group 3: Catalysts for Growth - Four major catalysts are expected to be released in 2026: 1) The high-end product line has been officially launched, with three-fold models priced between RMB 5,000 and 7,000, set to debut in Q4 2025 [1] 2) Self-production is projected to enhance gross margins by 200-300 basis points [1] 3) The online transformation is expected to maintain over 50% growth, with a gross margin of about 50% [1] 4) Further expansion into international markets is planned [1]

该行表示，四大催化剂将在2026年集中释放：1)高端产品线已正式落实：三折车型定价5000-7000元人 民币，已于2025年第四季正式推出。2)自主生产提升200-300个基点毛利率，3)线上转型：此渠道维持 50%以上的增长，毛利率约50%，而线下仅27-28%。预计线上收入将在2026年达到35%(相比2024年的约 25%)。4)再进军国际市场。 该行预计2025年下半年营收增长加速，第三季增长约50%，10月线上年增超85%;海外业务目标2026年营 收1.5亿元人民币(下同)，2027年达3亿元，地域结构有利于利润率提升，因欧美市场电助力渗透率达20- 30%，中国仍不足5%。 招商证券国际发布研报称，首予大行科工(02543)目标价56港元，评级"增持"。该行预计2024-2027年销 售额复合年增长率达50%，毛利率每年提升约100个基点，主要驱动因素包括：三折叠及电助力新品推 出带动ASP上升、自主生产修复200-300个基点利润率，以及线上渠道占比在2026年提升至约35%，其毛 利率约50%，其显著高于线下的27-28%。 ...