Core Viewpoint - The update from Valve on October 23, 2025, led to a significant crash in the CS2 virtual item market, resulting in an estimated loss of nearly $2 billion in value within hours, highlighting the inherent risks of investing in virtual goods controlled by game developers [1][2][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The CS2 virtual item market was previously valued at nearly $6 billion, evolving into a complex speculative arena beyond mere gaming items [2]. - Valve's design of scarcity, with a mere 0.26% chance of obtaining top-tier items, created a luxury-like value for rare items, leading to prices reaching tens of thousands of RMB in secondary markets [2][4]. - A robust third-party trading market emerged, with players analyzing item price trends akin to stock trading, further intensifying speculative behavior [2]. Group 2: Risk Factors - The artificial scarcity of virtual items, controlled entirely by the game developer, poses a fundamental risk, as opposed to natural scarcity found in physical assets like gold [3]. - The update on October 23 allowed players to create top-tier items through a "Trade-Up Contract," fundamentally altering the supply logic and leading to a collapse in perceived value [4]. - The sudden increase in supply led to panic selling among holders of top-tier items, resulting in a price crash and a dramatic rise in the value of the materials used for crafting [4]. Group 3: Investor Behavior - Many young investors, drawn by the narrative of high returns and low entry barriers, lacked awareness of the true risks associated with virtual asset investments [5]. - The CS2 market upheaval serves as a cautionary lesson about the dangers of treating virtual items as investment vehicles rather than entertainment products [6]. - Game companies hold the ultimate power to modify rules and supply, which can lead to abrupt changes in market dynamics, emphasizing the speculative nature of virtual goods [6].