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利多星调研美的集团:海外业务短期承压,高端品牌与新兴市场构筑增长韧性
Quan Jing Wang· 2025-07-25 09:18
Core Viewpoint - Midea Group is navigating short-term challenges in overseas orders while leveraging its global capacity layout, flexible domestic market strategies, and strong brand performance to ensure resilient growth in a complex environment [6]. Group 1: Overseas Market - Midea's overseas business showed a significant fluctuation in the first half of the year, with a 30% increase in external sales in Q1 due to preemptive stocking by clients, followed by a decline in Q2 as orders from North America and Europe decreased [1]. - The company has successfully shifted 90% of its production capacity for exports to the U.S. to overseas factories, with a goal to increase overseas revenue contribution from over 20% to more than 30% in the next two years [2]. - Emerging markets, particularly India, are expected to drive growth due to their large, young populations and rapid economic growth, with Midea's overseas consumer business projected to outpace domestic growth post-2023 [2]. Group 2: Domestic Market - In the domestic market, Midea adopted a price promotion strategy to capture market share in the air conditioning sector, benefiting from policy subsidies and high temperatures [3]. - The company acknowledges the competitive threat from Xiaomi and other emerging brands, adjusting its strategy to focus on profit protection while maintaining its core technological advantages [3]. - Midea is optimizing its distribution channels and has eliminated the agent level since 2021, focusing on improving operational efficiency and maintaining significant revenue from offline channels [3]. Group 3: Growth Highlights - High-end brands, particularly COLMO, are showing strong growth, with a projected 35% increase in 2024 and a surge of approximately 50% in Q1 due to government subsidies [4]. - The To B business is showing signs of improvement, with a recovery in commercial ventilation and positive growth expected in the KUKA robotics segment [4]. Group 4: Financial Strategy - Midea maintains a high dividend payout ratio of 70% and is exploring innovative shareholder return methods, including potential buybacks and mid-term cash dividends [5]. - The company aims for a revenue growth target of 5%-10% and profit growth not less than revenue growth, while employing a neutral hedging strategy to manage currency and commodity risks [6].