中证目标2055指数

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资产配置|多资产ETF的海外经验与国内展望
中信证券研究· 2025-02-28 00:18
Core Viewpoint - The development of multi-asset ETFs in China is expected to gain momentum due to the demand for stable returns and the availability of diverse underlying tools, with a focus on different stages of development [1][2]. Group 1: Development Opportunities - The demand side is characterized by a declining risk-free return and a high volatility environment, leading investors to seek one-stop, low-cost multi-asset allocation tools [2]. - The supply side shows a well-established layout of multi-asset allocation indices, with a continuous increase in the variety and scale of domestic ETFs [2]. Group 2: Overseas Experience - The U.S. multi-asset ETF market is the most mature, yet it still represents a small proportion of the overall ETF market, with 158 products and a total scale of approximately $39.7 billion as of January 2025 [3]. - The market is highly concentrated, with the top three management firms being BlackRock, Pacer, and Tidal, and the majority of multi-asset ETFs are categorized as allocation-type [3]. Group 3: Domestic Index Development - Currently, the China Securities Index Company has released 79 indices (excluding delisted indices), including 22 style allocation indices, 19 volatility control indices, 8 stock timing indices, and 6 target date indices [4]. - Among style allocation indices, dividend allocation indices are predominant, with 18 indices [4]. Group 4: Representative Indices - The dividend stock-bond allocation index focuses on high dividend yield stocks and high coupon rate credit bonds, with a historical annualized return of 5.08% and an annualized Sharpe ratio of 6.07 since its inception [5]. - The target date index includes A-shares, bonds, cash, and QDII stocks, with a historical annualized return of 10.06% and an annualized Sharpe ratio of 0.65 since its inception [7]. Group 5: Expected Development Stages - The domestic multi-asset ETF development is anticipated to go through three stages: the initial stage focusing on stable performance and clear allocation models, the development stage emphasizing complex allocation models for specific scenarios, and the mature stage featuring a rich variety of multi-asset and multi-strategy allocation indices [8].