Core Viewpoint - Fosun Pharma is optimistic about the potential of the Alzheimer's drug "971," expecting it to complete clinical trials by the end of 2028, receive approval in the first half of 2029, and enter health insurance by 2030, with peak sales projected to reach approximately 4 billion yuan by 2035 [1][2][5]. Group 1: Acquisition and Financial Implications - Fosun Pharma announced plans to invest approximately 1.412 billion yuan to acquire a 51% stake in Green Valley Pharmaceutical, known for the drug "971" [2]. - Following the acquisition announcement, Fosun Pharma's stock fell by 4.22% in A-shares and 5.81% in Hong Kong, indicating market skepticism regarding the decision [3]. - The overall cost for the domestic Phase III clinical trial is estimated to be 685 million yuan, with additional funding planned based on progress [6]. Group 2: Clinical Trial and Regulatory Path - The clinical trial for "971" will be conducted in collaboration with Green Valley Pharmaceutical, with a target of enrolling over 1,900 patients [6][7]. - The expected timeline for completing the registration-confirmatory Phase III clinical trial is by the end of 2028, with a streamlined approval process anticipated to take about 5 to 6 months [6][7]. - The drug's target patient population is estimated to be around 3.56 million, with a market penetration rate projected at 22% [7]. Group 3: Efficacy Controversies - The efficacy of "971" has faced significant scrutiny, with notable criticisms from scholars regarding its mechanism of action and clinical trial data [9][11]. - Despite the controversies, Fosun Pharma maintains confidence in the drug's effectiveness, citing clinical data from over 800 patients that reportedly show better results than placebo [9][12]. - The drug's commercial potential remains strong, with high demand leading to inflated prices in the market, significantly above previous insurance prices [12][13]. Group 4: Company Background and Future Outlook - Green Valley Pharmaceutical, founded by Lü Songtao, has a history of controversial products, but "971" has been a focal point of its business strategy [15][16]. - Following the acquisition, Green Valley will become a subsidiary of Fosun Pharma, with its future operations primarily focused on clinical trials [16]. - The financial impact of Green Valley's operations on Fosun Pharma's overall financials is expected to be minimal in the short term, as the focus will be on completing the necessary clinical work [16].