Core Viewpoint - A controversial Alzheimer's drug, known as "971," has regained the possibility of being sold after a recent acquisition by Fosun Pharma, which plans to invest approximately 1.412 billion yuan to acquire 51% of Green Valley Pharmaceutical [1][2]. Group 1: Acquisition and Financial Implications - Fosun Pharma's acquisition of Green Valley Pharmaceutical marks the first purchase under the leadership of newly appointed Chairman Chen Yuqing [2]. - The market reacted negatively to the acquisition, with Fosun Pharma's A-shares dropping by 4.22% and Hong Kong shares by 5.81% on December 16 [2]. - The acquisition is expected to have a minimal impact on Fosun Pharma's financial statements in the coming years, as Green Valley will focus on clinical trials post-acquisition [10]. Group 2: Drug Development and Clinical Trials - Fosun Pharma aims to complete post-marketing confirmatory clinical trials for 971, with an optimistic timeline for approval in the first half of 2029 and potential inclusion in medical insurance by 2030 [2][3]. - The estimated cost for domestic Phase III clinical trials is around 685 million yuan, with plans for international multi-center trials if suitable conditions arise [3]. - The target patient population for 971 is approximately 3.56 million, with a projected market penetration rate of 22% [4]. Group 3: Controversies and Efficacy Concerns - The drug's efficacy has been heavily criticized, with notable academic figures questioning its mechanism and clinical trial data [6][7]. - Despite the controversies, there is a significant demand for the drug, with prices reportedly reaching 1,600 to 2,400 yuan, significantly higher than its previous insurance-covered price [8]. - Clinical data from over 800 patients reportedly shows that 971 performs better than a placebo, and there is a growing body of real-world evidence supporting its effectiveness [7]. Group 4: Company Background and Future Prospects - Green Valley Pharmaceutical, founded by Lü Songtao, has faced scrutiny in the past, including allegations of fraudulent claims regarding its products [9][10]. - The company reported revenues of 572 million yuan in 2024, but faced significant losses in the first nine months of 2025 due to the suspension of 971 [10]. - Following the acquisition, Green Valley will operate as a subsidiary of Fosun Pharma, with a focus on completing necessary clinical trials to regain market approval [10].

一款曾被知名学者饶毅炮轰为"假药"的阿尔茨海默病（AD）药物，近期又重获上市销售的可能。 12月15日，复星医药（600196.SH/02196.HK）公告，拟出资约14.12亿元，收购绿谷（上海）医药科技 有限公司（下称"绿谷医药"）51%的股权。 绿谷医药以甘露特钠胶囊（俗称"971"）闻名，这款治疗轻度至中度阿尔茨海默病的创新药于2019年在 中国获批附条件上市，打破了全球17年间无AD药物上市的纪录。2024年，971在中国卖出200多万盒。 但各界对971的质疑从未间断。2025年，因绿谷医药未完成上市后确证性临床研究，国家药监局没有重 新批准971的上市申请，该药停产。 12月15日晚间，复星医药高管在电话会上表示，根据现有临床证据，他们看好971的疗效与前景。 接下来，复星医药将推动971的上市后确证性临床试验。按复星医药最乐观的计划，这款药物2029年上 半年获批、2030年进入医保，销售峰值预计在2035年达到约40亿元。 资本市场对交易反应强烈。这次收购是2025年4月新上任的复星医药董事长陈玉卿上任后的第一笔收 购，部分股民对其决策合理性提出疑问。12月16日，复星医药A股跌4.22%， ...

Core Viewpoint - Fosun Pharma is optimistic about the potential of the Alzheimer's drug "971," expecting it to complete clinical trials by the end of 2028, receive approval in the first half of 2029, and enter health insurance by 2030, with peak sales projected to reach approximately 4 billion yuan by 2035 [1][2][5]. Group 1: Acquisition and Financial Implications - Fosun Pharma announced plans to invest approximately 1.412 billion yuan to acquire a 51% stake in Green Valley Pharmaceutical, known for the drug "971" [2]. - Following the acquisition announcement, Fosun Pharma's stock fell by 4.22% in A-shares and 5.81% in Hong Kong, indicating market skepticism regarding the decision [3]. - The overall cost for the domestic Phase III clinical trial is estimated to be 685 million yuan, with additional funding planned based on progress [6]. Group 2: Clinical Trial and Regulatory Path - The clinical trial for "971" will be conducted in collaboration with Green Valley Pharmaceutical, with a target of enrolling over 1,900 patients [6][7]. - The expected timeline for completing the registration-confirmatory Phase III clinical trial is by the end of 2028, with a streamlined approval process anticipated to take about 5 to 6 months [6][7]. - The drug's target patient population is estimated to be around 3.56 million, with a market penetration rate projected at 22% [7]. Group 3: Efficacy Controversies - The efficacy of "971" has faced significant scrutiny, with notable criticisms from scholars regarding its mechanism of action and clinical trial data [9][11]. - Despite the controversies, Fosun Pharma maintains confidence in the drug's effectiveness, citing clinical data from over 800 patients that reportedly show better results than placebo [9][12]. - The drug's commercial potential remains strong, with high demand leading to inflated prices in the market, significantly above previous insurance prices [12][13]. Group 4: Company Background and Future Outlook - Green Valley Pharmaceutical, founded by Lü Songtao, has a history of controversial products, but "971" has been a focal point of its business strategy [15][16]. - Following the acquisition, Green Valley will become a subsidiary of Fosun Pharma, with its future operations primarily focused on clinical trials [16]. - The financial impact of Green Valley's operations on Fosun Pharma's overall financials is expected to be minimal in the short term, as the focus will be on completing the necessary clinical work [16].

经济观察报 记者 刘晓诺 一款曾被知名学者饶毅炮轰为"假药"的阿尔茨海默病（AD）药物，近期又重获上市销售的可能。 12月15日，复星医药（600196.SH/02196.HK）公告，拟出资约14.12亿元，收购绿谷（上海）医药科技有限公司（下称"绿谷医药"）51%的股权。 绿谷医药以甘露特钠胶囊（俗称"971"）闻名，这款治疗轻度至中度阿尔茨海默病的创新药于2019年在中国获批附条件上市，打破了全球17年间无AD药物上 市的纪录。2024年，971在中国卖出200多万盒。 但各界对971的质疑从未间断。2025年，因绿谷医药未完成上市后确证性临床研究，国家药监局没有重新批准971的上市申请，该药停产。 12月15日晚间，复星医药高管在电话会上表示，根据现有临床证据，他们看好971的疗效与前景。 接下来，复星医药将推动971的上市后确证性临床试验。按复星医药最乐观的计划，这款药物2029年上半年获批、2030年进入医保，销售峰值预计在2035年 达到约40亿元。 资本市场对交易反应强烈。这次收购是2025年4月新上任的复星医药董事长陈玉卿上任后的第一笔收购，部分股民对其决策合理性提出疑问。12月16日，复 星 ...