Macro Strategy - The report identifies three main policy directions: early use of debt quota, 500 billion policy financial tools, and monetary easing [1][4][5] - It predicts a moderate approach to new growth policies, focusing on stabilizing rather than stimulating the economy, with expected GDP growth of around 5% for the year [5][6] Fixed Income and REITs - The report suggests a strategic allocation in public REITs from urban investment platforms, emphasizing a "region first, type second" strategy to identify investment opportunities with economic resilience and stable cash flows [1][7] - It highlights the performance of various provincial REITs, noting that Zhejiang has five existing products with a total scale of 17.443 billion, while Guangdong has three products totaling 12.414 billion [7][8] Company Analysis: Xiaogoods City (小商品城) - Xiaogoods City reported a significant increase in net profit for Q3 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 101%, driven by market operations and trade services [2][8] - The company achieved a revenue of 130.6 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, a 23.1% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 34.6 billion, up 48.5% [2][8] - The report raises the profit forecast for Xiaogoods City for 2025-2027, with expected net profits of 49.0 billion, 61.6 billion, and 72.8 billion respectively, reflecting a growth of 59%, 26%, and 18% [3][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company has completed the leasing of the jewelry sector in the global digital trade center, which is expected to contribute approximately 1.4 billion yuan in selection fee revenue [7] - The company plans to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary in Hong Kong to diversify its payment services, enhancing its cross-border financial service capabilities [7] - The company is actively applying for a stablecoin license in Hong Kong, aiming to provide efficient and low-cost cross-border payment solutions [7] - The controlling shareholder has increased its stake in the company, reflecting confidence in its future development [7] - The profit forecast for the company shows a significant increase in net profit from 4.23 billion yuan in 2025 to 6.83 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios decreasing from 26 to 16 [7] Financial Projections - Total revenue is projected to grow from 15.74 billion yuan in 2024 to 33.23 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21.68% [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 3.07 billion yuan in 2024 to 6.83 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of 19.46% [7] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted to increase from 0.56 yuan in 2024 to 1.24 yuan in 2027 [7]