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晨光股份(603899):2024年年报点评:2024Q4暂承压,2025年经营改善可期
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of 35.79, down from the previous forecast of 37.86 [2][12]. Core Insights - The company's performance is currently under pressure due to increased expenses, but the advancement of new retail business and trends in emotional consumption are expected to drive performance improvement [3][12]. - The company has adjusted its earnings forecast for 2025-2026, now estimating EPS of 1.63 and 1.80 respectively, down from previous estimates of 2.24 and 2.60 [12]. Financial Summary - Revenue is projected to grow from 24,228 million in 2024 to 31,427 million by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.8% [5]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to recover from 1,396 million in 2024 to 1,838 million in 2027, with a notable increase in net profit margin from 6.0% in 2024 to 6.2% in 2027 [5]. - The company’s return on equity (ROE) is forecasted to improve from 15.7% in 2024 to 17.1% in 2027 [5]. Market Performance - The stock has a 52-week price range of 25.28 to 39.86, with a current market capitalization of 26,985 million [6]. - The stock's performance over the last 12 months shows a relative decline of 28% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [10]. Business Operations - In Q4 2024, the company's traditional business, KeliPu, and new retail segments reported revenues of 20.8 million, 46.7 million, and 3.6 million respectively, with new retail showing a growth of 4% year-on-year [12]. - The company plans to maintain its expansion in the new retail sector, with the number of stores increasing to 741 by the end of 2024, up by 39 from the previous quarter [12].