1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This season, the high cost of apple warehouse receipts due to a low premium fruit rate strongly supports the apple futures price. As of January 14, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in major producing areas was 7.0466 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 162,500 tons. The de - stocking speed accelerated compared to the previous week but was lower than the same period last year. Considering this year's later Spring Festival, the peak sales period is also postponed, and current demand is acceptable. With low cold - storage inventory, if the normal de - stocking volume is maintained, the later apple supply will be tight. The market previously expected weak apple demand, causing the May contract to decline slightly recently. If apple demand remains normal later, the May contract price is likely to rise [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Spot Price**: The Fuji apple price index was 109.79, up 0.66 from the next working - day's price. The prices of various apple varieties such as Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bagged 70, Qixia first and second - grade paper - bagged 80, and Penglai first and second - grade paper - bagged 80 remained stable. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits was 7.93, up 0.13 from the next working - day's price [2]. - **Futures Price**: AP01 was 8210, up 22 from the previous close; AP05 was 9489, up 71; AP10 was 8292, up 35. The spreads AP01 - AP05 was - 1279, down 49; AP05 - AP10 was 1197, up 36; AP10 - AP01 was 82, up 13 [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of Qixia first and second - grade 80 against AP01 was - 10, down 22 from the previous trading day; against AP05 was - 1289, down 71; against AP10 was - 92, down 32 [2]. 3.2 Market News and Views - **Market News**: As of January 23, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in major producing areas was 6.8278 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4% with a narrowing decline. In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%; the import volume was 3100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.31% and a year - on - year increase of 20.02%. The annual cumulative import volume in 2025 was 116,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.72%. In the Shandong production area, the price of high - quality apples remained stable, while the price of low - quality apples declined slightly. The market arrival was stable, and the mainstream market was stable. The mainstream transaction price of semi - commodity apples in Luochuan, Shaanxi, was 3.8 - 4.2 yuan per jin [7]. - **Trading Logic**: High - cost warehouse receipts support the futures price. Low cold - storage inventory and a later Spring Festival may lead to tight supply if the de - stocking volume is normal. The May contract may rise if demand remains normal [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions in the May contract, short the October contract on rallies. Go long on the May contract and short the October contract for arbitrage. It is recommended to wait and see for options [8]. 3.3 Relevant Attachments - The report includes 10 figures, such as the price of Qixia first and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples, the price of Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bagged 70 apples, the basis of AP contracts, and the spreads of different AP contracts, as well as the arrival volume of apples in wholesale markets, the price of 6 kinds of fruits, the cold - storage inventory of apples nationwide, and the cold - storage apple de - stocking volume [10][11][12]