1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - This season, the high cost of apple warehouse receipts due to a low premium fruit rate strongly supports the apple futures price. As of January 14, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in major producing areas was 7.0466 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 162,500 tons. The de - stocking speed accelerated compared to the previous week but was lower than the same period last year. Considering this year's later Spring Festival, the peak sales period is also postponed, and current demand is acceptable. With low cold - storage inventory, if the normal de - stocking volume is maintained, the later apple supply will be tight. The market previously expected weak apple demand, causing the May contract to decline slightly recently. If apple demand remains normal later, the May contract price is likely to rise [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Spot Price**: The Fuji apple price index was 109.79, up 0.66 from the next working - day's price. The prices of various apple varieties such as Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bagged 70, Qixia first and second - grade paper - bagged 80, and Penglai first and second - grade paper - bagged 80 remained stable. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits was 7.93, up 0.13 from the next working - day's price [2]. - **Futures Price**: AP01 was 8210, up 22 from the previous close; AP05 was 9489, up 71; AP10 was 8292, up 35. The spreads AP01 - AP05 was - 1279, down 49; AP05 - AP10 was 1197, up 36; AP10 - AP01 was 82, up 13 [2]. - **Basis**: The basis of Qixia first and second - grade 80 against AP01 was - 10, down 22 from the previous trading day; against AP05 was - 1289, down 71; against AP10 was - 92, down 32 [2]. 3.2 Market News and Views - **Market News**: As of January 23, 2026, the cold - storage inventory of apples in major producing areas was 6.8278 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4% with a narrowing decline. In December 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 156,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.63% and a year - on - year increase of 26.76%; the import volume was 3100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.31% and a year - on - year increase of 20.02%. The annual cumulative import volume in 2025 was 116,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.72%. In the Shandong production area, the price of high - quality apples remained stable, while the price of low - quality apples declined slightly. The market arrival was stable, and the mainstream market was stable. The mainstream transaction price of semi - commodity apples in Luochuan, Shaanxi, was 3.8 - 4.2 yuan per jin [7]. - **Trading Logic**: High - cost warehouse receipts support the futures price. Low cold - storage inventory and a later Spring Festival may lead to tight supply if the de - stocking volume is normal. The May contract may rise if demand remains normal [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions in the May contract, short the October contract on rallies. Go long on the May contract and short the October contract for arbitrage. It is recommended to wait and see for options [8]. 3.3 Relevant Attachments - The report includes 10 figures, such as the price of Qixia first and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples, the price of Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bagged 70 apples, the basis of AP contracts, and the spreads of different AP contracts, as well as the arrival volume of apples in wholesale markets, the price of 6 kinds of fruits, the cold - storage inventory of apples nationwide, and the cold - storage apple de - stocking volume [10][11][12]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the apple market are strong due to a decline in apple production this year, a poor high - quality fruit rate, increased storage difficulty, and expected low cold - storage inventory data. However, considering the high price of the January contract and the large risk approaching delivery, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, and also to stay on the sidelines for arbitrage and option trading [5][6][8] Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Market Information - The Fuji apple price index was 106.38, up 0.02 from the previous trading day. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits was 7.30, up 0.08 from the previous trading day. Among futures prices, AP01 was 9526, up 76 from the previous close; AP05 was 9633, up 54; AP10 was 8438, up 27 [2] Second Part: Market News and Views - **Transaction Logic**: This year's apple production decreased, the high - quality fruit rate was poor, and storage was more difficult. As of November 27, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 766.75 million tons, a decrease of 6.41 million tons from the previous week and 79.5 million tons from the same period last year. The peak cold - storage inventory this year was at a low level in the same period over the years, and the apple quality was relatively poor, so the effective inventory was expected to be low, and the apple fundamentals were strong [5] - **Transaction Strategy**: For single - side trading, due to the strong apple fundamentals but the high price of the January contract and high delivery - approaching risks, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines. For arbitrage and option trading, it is also recommended to stay on the sidelines [6][8] - **Market Data**: As of November 27, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas was 766.75 million tons, a decrease of 6.41 million tons from the previous week and 79.5 million tons from the same period last year, with a decline of 9.4%. In October 2025, the import volume of fresh apples was 0.31 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 68.09% and a year - on - year increase of 8.54%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 11.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.18%. In October 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 8.04 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.51% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.04% [7] - **Spot Price**: In the Shandong production area, the late - maturing bagged Fuji apples in cold storage mainly traded small and medium - sized fruits and a small amount of general - quality goods, with few large - sized fruit transactions. The purchase volume of small fruits in cold storage was less than that of last week. In the Qixia area, the mainstream price of bagged Fuji 65 - 70 was 2.0 - 2.2 yuan per catty. In the Shaanxi production area, the mainstream price was stable, and cold - storage trading was not active. In the Luochuan area, the mainstream price of cold - storage bagged Fuji 70 and above was 3.8 - 4.2 yuan per catty, and high - quality goods were 4.5 - 5.0 yuan per catty [7] Third Part: Relevant Attachments - Multiple charts are presented, including the price charts of Qixia first - and second - grade bagged 80 apples, Luochuan semi - commercial bagged 70 apples, AP contract main - force basis, spreads between different AP contracts, the combined apple arrival volume at Chalong, Jiangmen, and Xiaqiao, the price of 6 kinds of fruits, the national cold - storage apple inventory, and the national cold - storage apple outbound volume [10][13][16][18][25]