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满帮集团(YMM):2025Q2业绩点评:看好核心业务增长,货运经纪业务调整影响短期盈利
Soochow Securities· 2025-08-25 11:40
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights strong growth in core business, while adjustments in freight brokerage services may impact short-term profitability [1][8] - The company achieved revenue of 32.39 billion RMB in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 17%, with Non-GAAP operating profit reaching 12.30 billion RMB, up 76% year-on-year [8] - The company expects Q3 2025 revenue to be between 30.7 billion and 31.7 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.3% to 4.6% [8] Financial Performance - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 8,436 million RMB - 2024: 11,239 million RMB - 2025: 11,843 million RMB - 2026: 12,944 million RMB - 2027: 16,145 million RMB - Non-GAAP net profit projections are: - 2023: 2,783 million RMB - 2024: 3,967 million RMB - 2025: 4,757 million RMB - 2026: 6,528 million RMB - 2027: 8,182 million RMB [1][9] Business Growth - The number of completed orders grew by 23.8% year-on-year to 60.8 million orders in Q2 2025, significantly outperforming the freight market [8] - The average monthly active users (MAU) of shippers reached 3.16 million, a 19.3% increase year-on-year, driven by growth in direct customers [8] - The company's transaction service revenue (commission business) was 13.27 billion RMB in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 39.4%, accounting for 41% of total revenue [8] Profitability - The overall gross margin improved by 9.2 percentage points year-on-year to 61.8% due to strong growth in high-margin transaction service revenue and membership income [8] - The report anticipates a decline in operating profit year-on-year for Q3 2025 due to adjustments in the freight brokerage business, but long-term profitability trends remain positive [8] Valuation - The report adjusts the Non-GAAP net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 from 54/70/89 billion RMB to 48/65/82 billion RMB, corresponding to Non-GAAP PE ratios of 20/15/12 times [8]