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京东外卖/即时零售配送业务
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京东物流:即时配送及海外增长向好,26年盈利同比有望高增-20260309
HTSC· 2026-03-09 04:30
Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD Logistics is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of HKD 17.10 [7][5]. Core Insights - JD Logistics reported a total revenue of RMB 217.1 billion for 2025, representing an 18.8% year-on-year increase. The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 6.65 billion, with a Non-IFRS profit of RMB 7.71 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.2% and a decline of 2.6% respectively, which was below expectations due to higher costs from new business investments [1][5]. - The growth in revenue is primarily driven by the increase in JD Retail revenue, the addition of JD's takeaway and instant retail delivery services, accelerated overseas market expansion, and growth in external customer business [1][2]. - The gross margin and Non-IFRS profit margin for 2025 were 9.1% and 3.6% respectively, both showing a decline compared to the previous year, mainly due to increased resource investment in new businesses and higher employee compensation costs [3][5]. Revenue Breakdown - In 2025, revenue from JD Group reached RMB 80.31 billion, a significant increase of 45.9% year-on-year, accounting for 37.0% of total revenue, while external customer revenue was RMB 136.8 billion, growing by 7.1% and representing 63.0% of total revenue [2]. - The integrated supply chain business generated RMB 116.2 billion in revenue, a 33.0% year-on-year increase, reinforcing its core position in the business [2]. Future Outlook - For 2026, it is anticipated that the logistics infrastructure capacity utilization will improve, and the application of automation technology will enhance scale effects, leading to significant profit growth [1][3]. - The expansion of the instant delivery market is expected to further contribute to the company's revenue and profit in 2026 [2]. International Expansion - JD Logistics is accelerating its global strategy, having established nearly 200 bonded warehouses and direct mail warehouses by the end of 2025, and launched its self-operated express brand "JoyExpress" in key regions such as Saudi Arabia, the UK, France, Germany, and the Netherlands [4]. Profit Forecast Adjustments - The net profit forecast for 2026 and 2027 has been raised by 8% and 4% to RMB 8.35 billion and RMB 9.77 billion respectively, with an additional forecast for 2028 of RMB 11.43 billion [5].