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又一轮货币博弈:英国交易所下黑手,人民币开展突围战
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-11-15 00:32
Core Viewpoint - The suspension of RMB futures trading by the London Metal Exchange (LME) is perceived as a disconnect from market realities, as trading volumes for RMB-denominated copper contracts have significantly increased, contradicting LME's justification of low liquidity [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The daily trading volume of RMB-denominated copper contracts reached 357,000 lots at the beginning of 2024, increasing to 482,000 lots by mid-2025, representing a growth of over 35% [1]. - The LME's decision coincides with a period of increasing international activity of the RMB in settlements, highlighting China's dominant position as the largest consumer of copper (53%), aluminum (57%), and rare earths (68%) [2]. Group 2: Global Trade Shifts - More mineral-exporting countries are shifting towards RMB settlements, as rejecting the RMB equates to rejecting the market [2]. - The rise in RMB settlements is not limited to minerals; it is also observed in sectors like iron ore from Australia and soybeans from Brazil, with Japanese companies leveraging RMB transactions to boost sales in China [4]. Group 3: Geopolitical Implications - The U.S. aims to monopolize mineral pricing through a "critical minerals alliance," reminiscent of the "petrodollar" system, but the rules of the game have changed in the era of renewable energy [4]. - The emergence of a buyer's market is reshaping global trade dynamics, with China's position as the largest buyer providing a natural advantage for the RMB [4]. - The internationalization of the RMB is progressing along the trajectory of trade flows, indicating an unstoppable momentum in the market [4].