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国际能源署IEA:2025年西北欧氢监测报告(英文版)
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-28 01:12
Group 1: Current Status and Potential of Hydrogen Development - Northwest Europe is a leader in low-emissions hydrogen development, accounting for 40% of Europe's total hydrogen demand, with significant renewable energy and carbon storage potential in the North Sea [1][21][14] - The region aims to develop 30-35 GW of electrolyser capacity by 2030, but most projects are still in early development stages, relying on supportive policies and regulatory frameworks [1][15][25] Group 2: Policy and Regulatory Framework - The EU and Northwest European countries are advancing hydrogen strategies, with France lowering its 2030 electrolyser capacity target to 4.5 GW and introducing a new 2035 target of 8 GW [2][24][76] - Germany has launched a hydrogen import strategy, while Switzerland has released its first national hydrogen strategy, emphasizing market integration with neighboring countries [2][24] Group 3: Supply, Demand, and Infrastructure - Current hydrogen demand in Northwest Europe is approximately 3 million tonnes per year, primarily from refining and chemicals, with potential production reaching 8 million tonnes by 2030 if all planned projects are realized [3][31][27] - The region plans to build nearly 13,000 km of hydrogen pipelines by the early 2030s, with 49% being repurposed natural gas pipelines, and aims for 16 TWh of underground hydrogen storage capacity [3][44][46] Group 4: Technological and Cost Challenges - Northwest Europe holds 85% of Europe's electrolyser manufacturing capacity, but project delays and insufficient orders have led to production cuts and restructuring among manufacturers [4][36][38] - Renewable hydrogen prices are projected to be 2.5 times higher than natural gas-based hydrogen in 2024, necessitating cost reductions through scale and policy support [4][38] Group 5: Regional Cooperation and International Trade - Regional collaboration is emphasized to enhance market efficiency, with initiatives like the "Green Octopus 2.0" plan and the H2Global auction mechanism in Germany to attract global suppliers [5][42] - By 2030, global hydrogen trade could reach 8 million tonnes, with Northwest Europe accounting for 60% of imports, primarily from the Middle East, Africa, and the Americas [5][42] Group 6: Summary and Future Outlook - Northwest Europe has advantages in resources, technology, and infrastructure for low-emissions hydrogen but must accelerate policy implementation and cross-border collaboration to meet 2030 targets [6] - The potential applications of hydrogen in industrial decarbonization and maritime fuels are expected to drive market expansion [6]