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上海家化(600315):大单品有望持续带动快增
HTSC· 2025-10-28 05:44
Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 33.34 RMB [7]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 1.483 billion RMB in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 28.3%, and a net profit of 140 million RMB, marking a return to profitability with a net profit margin of 9.4% [1][7]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 4.961 billion RMB, up 10.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 405 million RMB, reflecting a significant increase of 149.1% year-on-year [1]. - The beauty segment saw a remarkable growth of 272.3% year-on-year in Q3, with online sales in China increasing by 170% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company has successfully launched three major products that have each generated over 100 million RMB in sales, demonstrating the effectiveness of its strategy combining niche category breakthroughs, strategic product development, and marketing innovation [3]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been adjusted to 6.342 billion RMB, 7.044 billion RMB, and 7.745 billion RMB respectively, reflecting increases of 2.0%, 5.7%, and 9.6% compared to previous estimates [5]. - The net profit forecasts for the same years have been slightly increased to 344 million RMB, 489 million RMB, and 561 million RMB, with corresponding EPS of 0.51, 0.73, and 0.83 RMB [5][11].