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瑞纳智能(301129):平台交付迎兑现拐点,主业回暖驱动成长
Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating to the company with a target price of 35.63 CNY per share, compared to the current price of 25.62 CNY [1]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in the smart heating sector, leveraging platformization and AI algorithms to enhance its growth trajectory. The acceleration of EMC model deployment, EPC project deliveries, and initial developments in silicon carbide business are expected to strengthen the company's growth logic [1][2]. Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 428 million CNY in 2024 to 678 million CNY in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 58.4%. Net profit is expected to rise from 77 million CNY in 2024 to 162 million CNY in 2025, marking a significant growth of 110.6% [3][6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to increase from 0.56 CNY in 2024 to 1.19 CNY in 2025, with a net asset return rate projected to reach 8.7% in 2025 [3][6]. Revenue and Profitability Forecast - The core business of heating energy-saving system engineering is expected to generate revenue of 1.26 billion CNY in 2024, with anticipated growth rates of 100%, 30%, and 20% for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [10]. - The intelligent modular heat exchange unit business is projected to achieve revenues of 0.76 billion CNY in 2024, with growth rates of 30%, 20%, and 15% for the subsequent years [11]. - The software business is expected to see a dramatic increase in revenue from 0.17 billion CNY in 2024 to 1.02 billion CNY in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 500% [12]. Strategic Development - The company has established a comprehensive smart heating business system that integrates delivery and operation, focusing on energy-saving solutions and system upgrades. The low-carbon smart heating solution exemplifies the company's capabilities in system integration [24][26]. - The company is transitioning from a project-based delivery model to a more productized and standardized approach, enhancing its market resilience [30][31]. Competitive Positioning - The company maintains a high gross margin, consistently above 55%, with a gross margin of 59.69% in 2024, significantly higher than its peers [34]. - The company’s R&D expenditure reached 0.74 billion CNY in 2024, reflecting a commitment to technological advancement and competitive positioning in the market [36].