Core Insights - The demand for influenza medications has surged, with the Chinese influenza drug market fluctuating around 100 billion RMB. Oseltamivir dominates the market, with East Sunshine Pharmaceutical as the leader, while Roche's Xofluza leads in new drug offerings [1][3]. Market Dynamics - In 2023, the Chinese antiviral drug market is estimated at 110 billion RMB, expected to decline to 80 billion RMB in 2024 due to a decrease in influenza cases, with oseltamivir accounting for approximately 80% of the market [4]. - East Sunshine Pharmaceutical's oseltamivir product, Kewai, generated 5.54 billion RMB in revenue in 2023, representing nearly 90% of its total revenue, capturing about 60% of the oseltamivir market share [3][4]. Competitive Landscape - The introduction of national centralized procurement policies has significantly impacted the market dynamics for oseltamivir, leading to a sharp price drop and increased competition from other generic manufacturers, resulting in East Sunshine's sales plummeting to 2.58 billion RMB in 2024 [3][4]. - As of August 2025, there are 118 approved oseltamivir products from 69 companies, indicating a highly competitive environment [5]. Emerging Trends - The market for traditional Chinese medicine is also growing, with sales of cold and flu medications increasing significantly, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [6]. - New antiviral drugs, particularly PA proteinase inhibitors like Marbofloxacin, are gaining traction, with a reported 600% increase in purchases during a recent two-week period [8][9]. Future Outlook - Roche's Xofluza is expected to maintain its leading position in the innovative drug market, with a threefold increase in supply anticipated for the current year [10]. - The entry of domestic new drugs is expected to challenge the market share of oseltamivir, particularly affecting generic versions [12][13].