Core Viewpoint - The demand for influenza medications has surged, with the Chinese influenza drug market fluctuating around 10 billion RMB. Oseltamivir dominates the market, led by Dongyang Sunshine Pharmaceutical, while Roche's Xofluza is the leader in new influenza drugs [3][4]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The search volume for "Oseltamivir" on JD.com increased nearly 500 times compared to the same period last year, indicating a significant rise in demand for generic drugs [5]. - After the patent protection for Roche's original drug Tamiflu expired, Dongyang Sunshine Pharmaceutical took control of the market, generating 5.54 billion RMB in revenue from its Oseltamivir product, accounting for nearly 90% of its total revenue in 2023 [6]. - National centralized procurement policies have disrupted the existing market structure for Oseltamivir, leading to a significant price drop and increased competition from other generic manufacturers, resulting in Dongyang Sunshine's sales halving to 2.58 billion RMB in 2024 [7][8]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Dongyang Sunshine failed to win bids in the 11th batch of national drug procurement, which will inevitably shrink its market presence in hospitals [8]. - The overall market for antiviral drugs in China is projected to decrease from 11 billion RMB in 2023 to 8 billion RMB in 2024, with Oseltamivir accounting for about 80% of this market [8]. - The market for traditional Chinese medicine is also growing, with sales of common cold and flu medications increasing significantly, further impacting Dongyang Sunshine's market share [9]. Group 3: New Drug Developments - There is a strong consumer demand for new antiviral drugs, with purchases of Marboxil showing a remarkable increase of over 600% in a two-week period [11]. - Roche's Xofluza remains the dominant player in the innovative drug market for influenza, with a significant supply increase expected in 2024 [11][12]. - Several domestic pharmaceutical companies have received approvals for new influenza drugs in 2023, with more expected to enter the market in 2025, potentially impacting the market share of Oseltamivir [12][13]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The market share of Oseltamivir is gradually being replaced by PA proteinase inhibitors, indicating a shift in treatment preferences [14]. - Despite the anticipated rise of new antiviral drugs, Oseltamivir is expected to maintain a certain market share due to varying clinical needs and payment capabilities across different demographics in China [14].

Core Insights - The demand for influenza medications has surged, with the Chinese influenza drug market fluctuating around 100 billion RMB. Oseltamivir dominates the market, with East Sunshine Pharmaceutical as the leader, while Roche's Xofluza leads in new drug offerings [1][3]. Market Dynamics - In 2023, the Chinese antiviral drug market is estimated at 110 billion RMB, expected to decline to 80 billion RMB in 2024 due to a decrease in influenza cases, with oseltamivir accounting for approximately 80% of the market [4]. - East Sunshine Pharmaceutical's oseltamivir product, Kewai, generated 5.54 billion RMB in revenue in 2023, representing nearly 90% of its total revenue, capturing about 60% of the oseltamivir market share [3][4]. Competitive Landscape - The introduction of national centralized procurement policies has significantly impacted the market dynamics for oseltamivir, leading to a sharp price drop and increased competition from other generic manufacturers, resulting in East Sunshine's sales plummeting to 2.58 billion RMB in 2024 [3][4]. - As of August 2025, there are 118 approved oseltamivir products from 69 companies, indicating a highly competitive environment [5]. Emerging Trends - The market for traditional Chinese medicine is also growing, with sales of cold and flu medications increasing significantly, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [6]. - New antiviral drugs, particularly PA proteinase inhibitors like Marbofloxacin, are gaining traction, with a reported 600% increase in purchases during a recent two-week period [8][9]. Future Outlook - Roche's Xofluza is expected to maintain its leading position in the innovative drug market, with a threefold increase in supply anticipated for the current year [10]. - The entry of domestic new drugs is expected to challenge the market share of oseltamivir, particularly affecting generic versions [12][13].

Core Insights - The demand for antiviral drugs and related testing kits has surged significantly as multiple regions in the country enter a high flu season [1] Sales Growth - Sales of the new antiviral drug "Sufuda" increased by 900% week-on-week - Sales of the classic drug "Oseltamivir" rose by 700% week-on-week - Sales of children's medication "Kewai Granules" saw a 115% increase week-on-week - Sales of "Renhe" flu testing kits skyrocketed by over 1000% week-on-week, indicating a heightened public awareness for early screening [1][1][1] Supply Chain and Logistics - The company has utilized an AI early warning system to increase the stock of core medications in advance - A cross-regional allocation mechanism has been initiated to ensure a continuous supply in key areas - The platform has advised users to purchase medications rationally to avoid stockpiling [1][1] Delivery Trends - Orders for medications delivered to schools increased by 155% week-on-week - Orders to shopping malls grew by 95%, highlighting that densely populated areas are currently hotspots for flu transmission [1][1] Health Advisory - The platform's online pharmacists recommend early testing for symptoms such as fever and muscle pain, and to use medications under the guidance of doctors or pharmacists - Users are advised to wear masks, wash hands frequently, and reduce gatherings to mitigate the spread of the flu [1][1]

Core Insights - The demand for antiviral drugs, particularly for influenza, has surged significantly during the current flu season, with notable increases in sales of Oseltamivir and Marbofloxacin [1][3][4] - The market is witnessing the entry of new competitors as three domestic innovative antiviral drugs have been launched this year, indicating a shift in the competitive landscape [1][6][8] Sales Growth - According to the China CDC, the percentage of influenza-like cases has been rising, with a positive rate of 40.9% reported in the 47th week of the year [2] - E-commerce platforms have reported a dramatic increase in sales of antiviral medications, with Oseltamivir sales increasing by 4.5 times and Marbofloxacin by 5 times from November 17 to November 23 [3] - Overall sales of influenza-related medications surged by 242% from November 24 to November 30 compared to the previous week, with specific products like Marbofloxacin and Oseltamivir seeing increases of 230% and 310%, respectively [3] Market Dynamics - The domestic antiviral market is primarily dominated by East Sunshine Pharmaceutical's Oseltamivir and Roche's Marbofloxacin, with Oseltamivir holding over 80% market share [5] - The sales of Marbofloxacin have shown explosive growth, with sales rising from 0.7 billion to 6.3 billion yuan from 2022 to 2023, making it a strong competitor to Oseltamivir [5][9] - The entry of generic versions of Oseltamivir has intensified competition, with nearly 140 approvals for related products as of November this year [8][9] New Product Launches - This year has been marked as a "year of domestic antiviral innovation," with several new drugs approved, including Marbofloxacin and others targeting different mechanisms of action [6][10] - The newly launched drugs have quickly gained market traction, with Marbofloxacin becoming the third most accessible antiviral drug in China, following Oseltamivir and Marbofloxacin [10] Future Outlook - The competitive landscape is expected to become more intense as more domestic companies enter the antiviral market, necessitating differentiation through innovation and market segmentation [10]

Core Insights - The demand for antiviral drugs has surged during the flu season, with significant increases in sales of Oseltamivir and Marbofloxacin, alongside the recent market entry of three new domestic antiviral drugs [1][3][5] Group 1: Market Demand and Sales Growth - The percentage of flu-like cases in China has risen, with a reported 40.9% positivity rate for flu tests during the 47th week of the year [2] - Sales data from various e-commerce platforms indicate a dramatic increase in antiviral drug demand, with Oseltamivir sales up 4.5 times and Marbofloxacin up 5 times from the previous week [3] - Overall sales of flu-related medications increased by 242% from November 24 to November 30 compared to the previous week, with specific products like Marbofloxacin and Oseltamivir seeing sales increases of 230% and 310%, respectively [3] Group 2: New Drug Approvals and Market Competition - Three new domestic antiviral drugs were approved in 2023, marking a significant increase in competition within the flu medication market [6][8] - The current market is primarily dominated by Oseltamivir and Marbofloxacin, but the entry of new competitors is reshaping the competitive landscape [8][9] - The sales of Oseltamivir reached 59 billion yuan in 2024, maintaining a leading market position despite the influx of generic alternatives [5][9] Group 3: Future Market Trends - The rapid growth of Marbofloxacin is notable, with a projected sales increase of over 758% in 2024, indicating a shift in market dynamics [9] - The competitive landscape is expected to intensify as more domestic companies enter the antiviral drug market, necessitating differentiation through innovation and market segmentation [10]

Core Insights - The sales of flu-related medications on JD's platform saw a significant increase of 242% week-on-week from November 24 to 30, with notable growth in Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shanghai [1] Sales Performance - Specific medications experienced remarkable sales growth: - Suifuda increased by 230% - Kewai surged by 310% - Flu test kits rose by 337% - Children's flu medications grew by 298% [1] Search Trends - On December 1, the search volume for "Oseltamivir" on JD's app increased nearly 500 times compared to the same period last year - The search volume for "Mabalaosai" and "Suifuda" also saw significant increases of 184 times and 108 times, respectively [1] Revenue Growth - From November 23 to 30, the transaction value of flu medications increased 32 times year-on-year - Suifuda's transaction value grew over 70 times, while the transaction values for Tamiflu and Kewai increased by more than 40% [1]

Group 1 - The flu season has seen a significant increase in cases, with flu-related medication sales on JD's platform rising by 242% from November 24 to 30 compared to the previous week, particularly in Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shanghai [1] - Specific medications such as Sufuda saw a 230% increase in sales, Kewai increased by 310%, and flu test kits surged by 337% during the same period [1] - The demand for antiviral medications has skyrocketed, with searches for Oseltamivir increasing nearly 500 times compared to last year, and sales of flu medications growing 32 times year-on-year [1] Group 2 - Several domestic antiviral drugs have been launched this year, with three key products debuting on JD Health: Mashu Lashawei on May 16, Angladiwei on June 27, and Masi Luoshawei on October 13 [2] - Sales of Mashu Lashawei increased by 60% week-on-week, while Angladiwei saw a growth of over 2.7 times, and Masi Luoshawei's sales surged over 10 times [2] - The trend of home rapid testing for flu has gained popularity, with a 79.2% increase in orders for respiratory virus testing and a positive detection rate of 71.5% [2] Group 3 - The influx of patients at offline hospitals has led to a peak in consultations, prompting JD Internet Hospital to establish a fever clinic and launch a flu consultation section on December 1 [2] - The online consultation service aims to alleviate pressure on physical hospitals and reduce the risk of cross-infection by providing 24-hour access to top-tier doctors for professional advice and medication guidance [2] - JD's integrated service model combines medical consultation, testing, and medication delivery, creating a closed-loop service for patients [2]

Core Insights - Demand for flu-related medications and testing reagents on the platform has surged significantly recently [1] Group 1: Sales Performance - Sales of the new antiviral drug "Sufuda" increased by 900% month-over-month [1] - Sales of the classic antiviral "Oseltamivir" rose by 700% month-over-month [1] - Sales of the children's medication "Kewai Granules" saw a month-over-month increase of 115% [1] - Sales of the children's formulation "Sufuda Dry Suspension" increased by 76% month-over-month [1] Group 2: Supply Chain Management - The company replenishes stock in regular regions 2-3 times a week [1] - The company can initiate cross-regional real-time allocation to ensure timely access to medications if demand surges in specific areas [1] Group 3: Health Advisory - Online pharmacists from the company advise minimizing prolonged gatherings in crowded, poorly ventilated indoor spaces during winter [1] - Recommendations include wearing masks and practicing hand hygiene when going out [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant rise in flu cases across China, with the flu positivity rate nearing 45%, marking an entry into a moderate epidemic level, and some provinces reaching high epidemic levels [1] - The flu peak is generally expected between late December and early January, followed by a decline phase [1] Group 2 - In Suzhou, the flu epidemic has officially begun, with the predominant strain being H3N2, leading to a surge in sales of cold and flu medications [2] - Sales data from Dingdang Kuaiyao shows a notable increase in the sales of antiviral medications, with Oseltamivir's sales rising by 237% and Baloxavir's by 180% over the past week [2] - On Alibaba Health's sales rankings, Oseltamivir capsules sold over 50,000 units, ranking first, while Baloxavir sold over 20,000 units, ranking sixth [2] Group 3 - JD's drug sales platform reported that the sales revenue of antipyretic and analgesic medications in November increased over 13 times compared to October, with some products seeing over 20 times growth [4] - Meituan's data indicates that orders for specific flu medications have more than doubled since November, with Baloxavir increasing by over 110% and Oseltamivir by over 85% compared to the previous month [4] Group 4 - Baloxavir is currently approved only for individuals aged 5 and older, weighing over 20 kg, and there are still restrictions for children under 5 years old [5] - Medical professionals advise that parents should prioritize seeking medical attention for young children with flu symptoms rather than self-medicating, emphasizing the importance of safety in medication use during pregnancy and breastfeeding [5]

Core Viewpoint - The flu season of 2025 is reported to be more severe than in the past three years, with increased cases of flu-like illnesses (ILI) across both northern and southern regions of China, leading to a shortage of specific flu medications, particularly for children [1][3][11]. Summary by Sections Flu Season Severity - The latest report from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention indicates that from November 10 to 16, 2025, the ILI percentage in southern provinces was 6.7% and in northern provinces was 7.0%, both higher than the previous week and the same period in 2022, 2023, and 2024 [3][11]. Medication Shortages - Many pharmacies are experiencing shortages of flu medications, particularly the children's version of the antiviral drug "速福达" (Mabalaoshuwei). Traditional antiviral drugs like Oseltamivir are still available but are also in high demand [3][9][11]. - A pharmacy reported that Oseltamivir has been out of stock for over two weeks, with expectations for new supplies to arrive soon, while "速福达" is not expected to be restocked [9][11]. Hospital Preference - Parents prefer hospitals for flu treatment over pharmacies, as they trust clinical doctors more. The original manufacturers of "速福达" and Oseltamivir are ensuring a broad supply to hospitals across the country [10][11]. - Clinical demand for children's flu medications is increasing, with doctors noting that while there are no supply issues for Oseltamivir and Mabalaoshuwei, delivery disruptions can occur due to high demand [11][12]. Drug Efficacy and Usage - Oseltamivir is suitable for children aged 1 year and older, while Mabalaoshuwei is effective for children aged 5 to 12, with the latter being a single-dose oral medication, making it more convenient for parents [11][13]. - The latest guidelines indicate that flu medications are essential for treatment, as common cold medications do not replace antiviral drugs [12][13]. Market Dynamics - The market for children's single-dose flu medications is expected to become more competitive as several domestic pharmaceutical companies are developing similar products, which may challenge the current dominance of "速福达" [16][17]. - Recent approvals for new antiviral drugs targeting children are underway, with a focus on single-dose formulations, which could expand treatment options for pediatric patients [16][17].